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Good Monday morning!
Yes, that charging bear is straight out of Canada!
It's about 7:00 PM on Sunday evening and futures are down big on the back of the tariffs president Trump has imposed on Canada and Mexico. Now prior to this sell off, there was a sharp liquidation break Friday afternoon because the news on tariffs, which were rumored to start in March, was upended by new White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who came out and said no they're starting tomorrow! This of course was on Friday and future sold off hard on the news.
Well over the weekend, retaliation remarks by Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau has futures spooked even further as he said the country will not stand for such tariffs and they will fight back. Well all that being said, with the liquidation break on Friday and large gap down in the futures Sunday evening, this is ominous for the bulls! Lots of people are trapped long with much higher prices and they are waking up with big time shock and awe!
Fast forward to this morning and futures are still much lower although they have improved somewhat of off their overnight lows. In the profile pic and key targets below, you can see the large gap down and I have marked off the overnight highs, and that will be a very important level for the bulls. I say that because if price does not even get back above 5988.25 then the edge remains fully with the bears!
Now if the sellers step up even more than they have already, and take out the downside targets at 5950-5940, then moving forward, the next target in the short term would be a full retracement to the January 13th lows around 5810. Futures are trading @ 5969 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added or taken out Friday so we still have two above @ 6148.50 and 6171 and 30 below with the closest @ 5985.75 then 5950. These obviously are in play today!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6100 - 6110
Key Levels: 6057.75 Prior Low and 5988.25 Overnight High
downside target is: 6050-6040
/NQ upside target is: 21,800 - 21,820
Key Level: 21,535.75 Prior Low
downside target is : 21,4550 - 21,425
/RTY upside target is: 2310 - 2315
downside target is: 2280 - 2270
Economic Data: RED STAR EVENT!
PMI Manufacturing Final @ 9:45 AM ET
ISM Manufacturing Index @ 10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending @ 10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Raphael Bostic Speaks @ 12:30 PM ET
Alberto Musalem Speaks @ 6:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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ES Demand at $5960 with Supply above at $6080
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $6080 after a pullback below $6070 looking to play SHORT targeting $6050 then $6040
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5980 after a break and retest above $5990 playing LONG targeting $6020 then $6080
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SPY - Demand at $593 with Supply above at $600-599
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $593 after a break and retest above $594 targeting $596 then $597
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $593 after a retest from $592 targeting $591 then breakdown into $589
/NQ - Key Demand at $21150 with Supply above at $21600
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $21600 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $21650 targeting $21700then a breakout into $21800
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $21700 looking to play SHORT after a pullback holds below $21650 looking to play short targeting $21550 then a breakdown into $21350s
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QQQ - Supply flipped to Demand at $520-21 with new Supply above at $525
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $520 looking to play long from a break and retest at $521 targeting high $523 then a breakout into $524
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $520 after a break and retest below $519 looking to play short targeting $518 then mid high $516
Have a great day!
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