- As of last week the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index had fallen 11% from its high in January. That is the largest decline from a high point on record and it surpasses the 10.8% drop that occurred in 2008 during the financial crises. This creates a difficult situation for investors that have historically looked at bonds as a safe asset class within their portfolio.
- One common narrative is that when interest rates rise, stocks do worse. Data that goes back to the 1970s, however, shows that the Fed has raised rates a quarter point or less 55 times and raised rates a quarter to half point 15 times, with an average S&P500 return one year later of 7.41% and 8.34%, respectively.
- Many investors have flocked to dividend paying stocks to replace bonds, which have unperformed and provided low-yields over the last few years. Yet, high-dividend paying stocks can provide little protection in a market downturn. Take the 2007-2009 financial crisis when Vanguard’s High Dividend Yield ETF fell -51.7%, which was worse than the S&P500.
- From 2010 to 2021 the cost of solar-generated energy dropped from $381 to $45 per megawatt-hour while wind-generated energy dropped from $89 to $48 per megawatt-hour. This is one reason why wind and solar accounted for 10.4% of all global power compared to just 5.2% in 2010. This growth is starting to slow, currently, as inflation and supply chain bottlenecks persist.
Bloomberg – This is Now The Worst Drawdown on Record for Global Fixed Income
Barrons – It’s Been Two Decades Since the Fed Has Raised Rates Like This. What It Means for the Stock Market
Barrons – Dividend Stocks Don’t Yield Ballast for Your Portfolio. That’s Why You Need Bonds.
WSJ – Ukraine War Drives Up Cost of Wind, Solar Power
Economic Calendar
Monday: Trade in goods, advance report (Feb)
Tuesday: Case-Shiller national house price index Y/Y (Jan), FHFA national house price index Y/Y (Jan),
Consumer confidence index (Mar), Job Openings (Feb), QUits (Feb),
Wednesday: ADP employment report (Mar),
GDP revision Q4, Gross domestic income Q4, Corporate profits Y/Y,
Thursday: Nominal personal income (Feb), Nominal consumer spending (Feb), PCE price index (Feb), Core PCE price index (Feb), PCE price index Y/Y (Feb),
Core PCE price index Y/Y (Feb), Real disposable income (Feb), Real consumer spending (Feb), Chicago PMI (Mar)
Friday: Non-farm payrolls (Mar), Unemployment rate (Mar), Hourly earnings (Mar), Labor force participation rate 25-54 (Mar), Markit manufacturing PMI (Mar), ISM manufacturing index (Mar), Construction spending (Feb), Motor vehicle sales (Mar)