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Greetings!
Last week: 0 contracts above $10 million.
This week: 12.
Those 12 contracts totaled $233.8 million, 61% of the week’s $384.9 million in contract volume, led by a $70 million contract at 50 Central Park South.
Many will read this as an election bounce. It isn’t. At this level, an offer is typically agreed about 2 weeks before the contract is signed, so most of these deals were negotiated in late October, before a single vote was cast. The $70 million contract signed the day before Election Day.
Last week’s 0 wasn’t a pause. It was paperwork.
The top of the market didn’t wait for the election. In 2 weeks, we’ll see whether the election added anything. Wondering where your apartment fits in this market? Email me here.
Vital Signs: Manhattan $4M+ This Week
- 38 contracts signed, up 15.2% from 33 last week
- 12 contracts above $10M, up from 0 last week
- 40 new listings, up 8.1% from 37
- 41 off market, up from 17
- $384.9M in contract volume, up 125.2% from $170.9M
- Contracts: average price $10.12M, median $6.60M
- Average $2,895 per square foot, median $2,762
- Days on market: 108
Contracts by Price
- $4M–$5M: 10 contracts - 26.3%
- $5M–$10M: 16 contracts - 42.1%
- $10M+: 12 contracts - 31.6% of contracts and 60.7% of volume
Contracts by Property Type
- 28 condos - 73.7%
- 7 co-ops - 18.4%
- 3 townhouses - 7.9%
Contracts by Neighborhood
- Downtown: 16 - 42.1%
- Upper East Side: 9 - 23.7%
- Midtown: 8 - 21.1%
- Upper West Side: 5 - 13.2%
Downtown led the week. TriBeCa alone signed 7 contracts, including 111 Murray, 49W at $11.95 million and 32 Walker, 2 at $11.5 million.
30 Days: Year over Year
- 146 contracts, compared to 150 a year ago (down 2.7%)
- 221 new listings, compared to 245 (down 9.8%)
- 121 taken off market, compared to 145 (down 16.6%)
Contracts nearly held, and supply fell more than three times as fast. Over the past 30 days, buyers signed 66 contracts for every 100 new listings, up from 61 a year ago.
Market Pulse
$4M+ reading is 4.5, up from 3.7 last week, 2.3 points higher in a month and 0.6 above a year ago. That is firmly seller territory, and still climbing.
$10M+ reading is 2.55, more than double last week’s 1.05. It remains 1.5 below last year, but that gap is closing quickly.
Listing Climate
$4M+ is at 1.48, up 80.5% in a month and 16.5% above last year. It has now crossed the “easy market” line of 1.28.
$10M+ is at 0.96, up 123.3% in a month. It has also crossed its “easy market” line of 0.86.
For the first time this fall, both segments favor sellers.
Top Three Contracts - SEE ALL 38 CONTRACTS HERE
#1- 50 Central Park South 30/31 | Midtown | $70,000,000 | 3 beds, 4.5 baths | 10,875 ft² | $6,436/ft² | 131 days to contract
#2- 95 Madison Avenue, EA | NoMad | $25,365,000 | 6 beds, 7 baths | $3,035/ft²
#3- 39 Crosby Street, PHN | SoHo | $25,000,000 | 5 beds, 5.5 baths | $4,458/ft² | 45 days to contract
50 Central Park South is the Ritz-Carlton Residences, where I sold Residence 28 for $28.4 million. At $6,436 asking psf foot, this contract says everything about what Central Park frontage commands.
The top moved quickly, too. 262 Fifth Avenue, 6 signed at $14.6 million in 4 days, and 29 Downing Street at $11.995 million in 25.
And the $5 million fault line showed up again. 3 contracts were priced at exactly $4,995,000: 1355 First Avenue, 1050 Fifth Avenue 18A and 1150 Park Avenue 10EF.
The Diagnosis: The Demand Was Already There
Last week, the top of the market looked quiet. This week shows it never was.
Buyers committed before the vote. With offers typically agreed 2 weeks before signing, most of this week’s 12 contracts above $10 million were negotiated in late October, right in the middle of election uncertainty.
The indicators are catching up. The $10M+ Market Pulse more than doubled in one week. The Listing Climate for both $4M+ and $10M+ now sits above the “easy market” line.
Some owners stepped back. 41 homes came off the market this week, up from 17, as owners pause for the holidays. For the sellers who stay, the field just got less crowded while buyers are still active.
The Prescription
If you’re selling above $10 million: The buyers are here, and the Listing Climate now favors sellers. The fastest deals this week went to homes priced to the market from day one.
If you’re selling between $4 and $10 million: With 41 homes withdrawn this week, your competition just thinned. A well-positioned home listed before Thanksgiving faces fewer alternatives than it will in January.
If you’re buying above $10 million: The quiet you may have noticed last week was never real. 12 buyers committed. When the right home appears, be ready to move.
If you’re buying near $5 million: 3 contracts this week were priced at exactly $4,995,000. Compare price per square foot, not just the headline number.
My Final Thoughts
Weekly contract numbers capture signatures, not decisions. The decisions behind this week’s 12 contracts above $10 million were made in October, while much of the market assumed buyers were waiting.
The real post-election test arrives in about 2 weeks, when offers made after Tuesday’s vote become signed contracts. I’ll be watching closely and will report back before Thanksgiving. My read: well-positioned homes will keep moving.
Everything else waits for spring.
Wondering where your apartment sits in this market? Reply with your building, and I’ll give you my honest read. No pitch, and every conversation stays confidential. Email me here.
If this was useful, forward it to someone who owns in Manhattan or is thinking about it.
Warm regards,
Carol
Carol Staab
Sotheby's International Realty
Why Attorneys & Clients Select Me As Their Luxury Manhattan Real Estate Advisor (video)
My Notable Sale Ritz Carlton $28.4M
Email: Carol.Staab@Sothebys.Realty
Cell: 917-273-7787
Website: CarolStaab.Com
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