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Good Wednesday morning,
Be careful out there today and protect profits as the Fed is expected to make its decision on interest rates at 2:00 p.m. EST. At this time there is a 98% chance of no change, but even with that being said, expect significant volatility today as traders and investors around the world will be glued to the TV for the FED Chair's press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST. In addition to that, there is a substantial amount of economic data hitting the tape this week, as well as almost 40% of the S&P 500 companies reporting earnings. Lots to take in and parse so volatility spikes!
📊 In the profile pic and key levels below, futures are trading in the lower third of yesterday's range as we had value build lower for the first time in over a week, and we finally took out a VPOC below current price at 6,401.50. There is also a critical reference point today at the overnight high and prior day's half-back at 6,418. Any price that stays below that level will be an edge to the sellers. Also, any break below the POC at 6,406, then the double bottom from July 24th, opens the door to further downside! This market has been melting up for far too long and may need a liquidation break to correct the overly long inventory!
Futures are currently trading at 6,413 at the time of this writing.
🧭 VPOC Update: We finally took out a VPOC below at 6,401.50, so we now are back to six below current price with none above.
Current VPOCs:
- 6,389.50
- 6,336.00
- 6,283.50
- 6,146.00
- 6,091.00
- 6,050.00
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6,440 - 6,450
Key Levels: 6,418 1/2 Back & ON high then 6,406 POC
downside target is: 6,380 - 6,370
/NQ upside target is: 23,625 - 23,650
Key Level: 23,480 POC
downside target is : 23,375 - 23,350
/RTY upside target is: 2,285 - 2,295
downside target is: 2,240 - 2,235
Economic Data : Busy Day
ADP Employment Report @ 8:15 AM ET
GDP @ 8:30 AM ET
Treasury Refunding Announcement @ 8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary) @ 11:00 AM ET
Survey of Business Uncertainty @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
FOMC Announcement @ 2:00 PM ET
Fed Chair Press Conference @ 2:30 PM ET
More Color By : Rich Rickus
1. ES - Key Demand $3240- 6325 Supply above at $6475
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $6340 looking to play a break and retest above $6250 long targeting $6305 then $6330
Bearish Buyers trapped below 6350 looking to play short after a break and retest below $6235 targeting $6200 then a break down into $6285
2. SPY - Key demand at $626-625 with Supply above at $630
Bullish Sellers trapped above $626 looking to play a break and retest from $627 long targeting $629 then a breakout into high $630
Bearish Buyers trapped below $625 after a break and retest below $624 targeting $623 then a breakdown into $622
3. /NQ - Key demand at $23300 with Supply above at $26150
Bullish Sellers trapped above $23225 looking to play a break and retest above $23250 long targeting $23400 then a breakout back into low $23500’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $23100 looking to play short from below $23100 targeting $22800
4. QQQ - Key Demand at $560 with Supply at $563 -564
Bullish Sellers trapped above $560 looking to play a break and retest from $561 targeting $563 then a breakout into high $564s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $559 looking to play a break and retest below targeting $557 then $556
Have a great day!
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