Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners
 
 

Quotes of the Day:


"If more North Koreans come to recognize that unification through freedom is the only way to improve their lives... they will emerge as strong allies for a freedom-oriented unification."
– President Yoon Suk Yeol, August 15, 2024

“The party’s comprehensive conclusion after reviewing decades-long inter-Korean relations is that reunification can never be achieved with those ROK riffraffs that defined the ‘unification by absorption’ and ‘unification under liberal democracy’ as their state policy. That is in sharp contradiction with what our line of national reunification was: one nation [minjok], one state with two systems. Reunification is realistically 'impossible' and the two Koreas are separate 'belligerent states' at war."
– Kim Jong Un, January 1, 2024

"This constant lying is not aimed at making the people believe a lie, but at ensuring that no one believes anything anymore. A people that can no longer distinguish between truth and lies cannot distinguish between right and wrong. And such a people, deprived of the power to think and judge, is, without knowing and willing it, completely subjected to the rule of lies. With such a people, you can do whatever you want."
 – Hannah Arendt (14 October 1906 – 4 December 1975) German historian and philosopher


1. Doubting America’s ‘Nuclear Umbrella,’ Some South Koreans Want Their Own

2. Leaders of S. Korea, US, Japan reaffirm commitment to trilateral security cooperation

3. S. Korea, US to kick off key summertime military exercise this week

4. S. Korea-US-Japan partnership to face test when Biden, Kishida leave office

5. A free and unified Korea

6. Politicians commemorate 15th anniv. of ex-President Kim Dae-jung's passing

7. Yoon launches ‘North Korea Freedom and Human Rights Fund’ TF

8. Korea, U.S., Japan tout 'unshakeable belief' in cooperation a year after Camp David summit

9. Leaders of S. Korea, US, Japan vow unity on ‘greatest challenges’

10. Joint Leaders’ Statement on the Anniversary of the Trilateral Leaders’ Summit at Camp David (with comments)





1. Doubting America’s ‘Nuclear Umbrella,’ Some South Koreans Want Their Own


Those who seek nuclear weapons for South Korea must be informed that they are playing right into Kim Jong Un's political warfare strategy which is designed to undermine the ROK government and drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance.


But it is this statement that is really at the heart of the problem. This is the declining trust in the US to live up to its commitments. Unfortunately there is no way to definitively "prove" that we will defend the ROK until the unthinkable happens and north Korea attacks the South.


Polls show that many South Koreans say they can no longer trust the American nuclear umbrella to guard them from North Korea. They doubt that Washington would come to their aid in the event of a conflict with North Korea now that Pyongyang is racing to develop the ability to attack American cities with nuclear warheads.


Doubting America’s ‘Nuclear Umbrella,’ Some South Koreans Want Their Own

Washington says it would defend the South against North Korea with nuclear arms, if need be. But more and more people in the South think it should rely on itself.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/17/world/asia/south-korea-nuclear-arsenal.html?referringSource=articleShare&smid=nytcore-ios-share&utm


South Korea gave up its nuclear weapons program in the 1970s. This image, from 2017, shows the launch of its main ballistic missile, which can now target and reach all of North Korea.Credit...South Korea Defense Ministry, via Associated Press


By Choe Sang-Hun

Reporting from Seoul

Aug. 17, 2024, 12:01 a.m. ET

Ever since the Korean War was halted in an uneasy truce in 1953, South Koreans have lived under an American promise to defend their country, if necessary, with nuclear weapons. President Biden emphatically reiterated that commitment last year, vowing that any nuclear attack by North Korea would lead to the destruction of its government.

But decades of American assurances have failed to deter North Korea from building a nuclear arsenal and then expanding it. Led by Kim Jong-un, North Korea has also become more provocative, testing missiles powerful enough to reach the United States. And it has rattled South Korea by reviving a Cold War-era defense agreement with Russia, another nuclear-armed state.

The South has long considered it a taboo to pursue atomic weapons in defiance of Washington’s nonproliferation policy. But jitters about security here have been intensified by the possible re-election of former President Donald J. Trump, whose commitment to the alliance between Washington and Seoul appears to be shaky at best.

Now, a growing majority of South Koreans say their country needs its own nuclear weapons instead of relying on the United States for protection. The idea, although still disavowed by the South Korean government, is increasingly becoming part of mainstream political debate​.

Polls show that many South Koreans say they can no longer trust the American nuclear umbrella to guard them from North Korea. They doubt that Washington would come to their aid in the event of a conflict with North Korea now that Pyongyang is racing to develop the ability to attack American cities with nuclear warheads.

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A news broadcast in May in Seoul with file footage of a North Korean missile launch. The North has become increasingly belligerent, rattling officials in the South.Credit...Ahn Young-Joon/Associated Press

“We cannot expect — and should not ask — the American president to use his nuclear weapons to defend an ally at the risk of sacrificing his own people,” said Cheong Seong-chang, who leads a group of 50 analysts pushing for a domestic nuclear arsenal in South Korea. “We must defend ourselves with our own.”

South Korea abandoned its nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, as Washington pushed nonproliferation, and chose to rely on the United States to defend it against the North. Tens of thousands of American troops have been garrisoned for decades in the South, which for many years also hosted U.S. nuclear weapons. Washington withdrew those arms in 1991, hoping the disarmament would incentivize Pyongyang to stop pursuing its own nuclear weapons.

For a while, Washington had two important partners in that effort: China and Russia. But in recent years, it has found itself increasingly at odds with both of those countries on issues such as trade tariffs and the war in Ukraine. Now, neither cooperates in American-led efforts to roll back North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

Mr. Kim’s regime has tested both atomic weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles. It is developing technology to deliver multiple nuclear warheads with a single missile. It is also escalating its threat to target South Korea with a fleet of nuclear-capable, short-range ballistic missiles, which Mr. Kim said this month he would deploy near the border with South Korea.

In June, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that North Korea had built roughly 50 nuclear warheads and had enough fissile material to build another 40 or so. It was also focusing on tactical nuclear weapons, which have a smaller payload.

“There is a growing concern that North Korea might intend to use these weapons very early in a conflict,” wrote Matt Korda, a researcher at the institute.

It was fears such as these that President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea tried to address when he met Mr. Biden at the White House last year. The two leaders deepened their alliance and signed the Washington Declaration to show that the American defense commitment was ironclad. Last month, they reaffirmed that any nuclear attack by North Korea would be met with “a swift, overwhelming and decisive response.”

“For the first time, it has been written down in a document that American nuclear assets will be tasked with deterring and countering North Korea’s nuclear force,” said Kim Tae-hyo, Mr. Yoon’s deputy national security adviser.


But that has done little to tamp down misgivings in South Korea about the American nuclear umbrella, which also covers Japan.


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President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea and President Biden, who met at the White House last year, agreed in April to new provisions meant to deter North Korean nuclear attacks.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times

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The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt was anchored in Busan, South Korea, in June. The United States and South Korea have deepened their security alliance in the last year.Credit...Pool photo by Song Kyung-Seok

A poll in February showed that the percentage of respondents who said Washington would defend their country with nuclear weapons even though North Korea could attack the mainland United States with nuclear missiles had dropped to 39 percent from 51 percent last year. Another survey, which has been conducted annually for a decade, found a historical shift. Asked to choose between having nuclear weapons or U.S. troops on their soil, more South Koreans, for the first time, picked the former.

Other surveys have found as many as 70 percent of all South Koreans supporting an independent nuclear arsenal. It has become increasingly common for conservative politicians and private and government analysts to support or discuss the idea, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlighted the extent to which a nuclear-armed power could get away with invading a nonnuclear neighbor.

“The call for nuclear weapons will be anything but short-lived because ‘going nuclear’ sounds sexy as a slogan,” said Lee Byong-chul, who has studied nuclear nonproliferation at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul. “But there is a huge gulf between high public support and a lack of technical capabilities and political intention to build nuclear weapons.”

South Korea has neither facilities to produce fuel for nuclear bombs nor the technical know-how to design nuclear weapons. And while Mr. Yoon has been more antagonistic toward the North than his recent predecessors and briefly warmed to the idea of going nuclear, there is little political will in the South to pursue atomic weapons.

Strengthening reconnaissance and missile abilities, analysts say, would serve South Korea better and give it the ability to launch pre-emptive strikes against the North.

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Soldiers standing guard last year at the DMZ, the border between North Korea and South Korea.Credit...Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

Building nuclear weapons would be “redundant” and “would not make South Korea any safer,” said Chun Yung-woo, a former national security adviser, “as long as the South Korea-U.S. alliance is alive and well.”

But the future of that alliance is likely to be volatile if Mr. Trump — who tried to negotiate with Mr. Kim face to face — is re-elected in November.

“It’s nice to get along when somebody has a lot of nuclear weapons,” Mr. Trump said of Mr. Kim when he accepted his party’s presidential nomination last month. “I think he misses me, if you want to know the truth.”

For supporters of a domestic nuclear force in South Korea, Mr. Trump’s potential return to power could be a good thing. He once said he would be open to allowing Japan and South Korea to build their own nuclear arsenals rather than depend on the American nuclear umbrella.

“It could open a window of opportunity,” said Mr. Cheong, the pro-nuclear analyst.

Choe Sang-Hun is the lead reporter for The Times in Seoul, covering South and North Korea. More about Choe Sang-Hun




2. Leaders of S. Korea, US, Japan reaffirm commitment to trilateral security cooperation


Again, no specific reference to or support for President Yoon's 8.15 Unification Doctrine. Disappointing. I hear the quiet voices of US bureaucrats in the background saying the following: "unification is just something we pay lip service to and just let the Presidents say for public consumption. It is too complex and difficult to think about much less develop plans and policies to support our blood ally with the only outcome that will bring peace, stability, and prosperity to the most important region in US foreign policy and national security. Let's keep the focus on denuclearization because we have been so successful with that for decades and avoid thinking about the suffering of the Korean people in the north." Yes, I am saying this with some sarcasm for dramatic effect. And for additional dramatic effect, I have never been a believer in the deep state but if one existed I think it would work hard to counter unification efforts (yes also said with sarcasm ).


Leaders of S. Korea, US, Japan reaffirm commitment to trilateral security cooperation

The Korea Times · August 18, 2024

Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, left, U.S. President Joe Biden, center, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speak during a press conference in Washington, D.C., Aug. 18, 2023. Yonhap

The leaders of South Korea, the United States and Japan hailed the achievements of their trilateral security cooperation since their historic Camp David summit a year ago and vowed to bolster their ties across a broad range of areas.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida issued a joint statement celebrating progress in their three-way cooperation since their first-ever stand-alone summit at the U.S. presidential retreat Camp David a year ago.

"We are working together to achieve our shared goals of advancing security and prosperity for the region and the world," the statement said. "We stand by our commitment to consult on regional challenges, provocations, and threats affecting our collective interests and security."

The leaders highlighted key accomplishments in security areas, including the launch of the trilateral multi-domain exercise Freedom Edge in June and the signing of a new Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework last month.

The leaders also recognized the efforts of a trilateral working group in disrupting North Korea's funding of weapons of mass destruction programs through cybercrime and other illicit means.

"We are resolved to maintain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, remain aligned in our shared vision, and stand ready to meet the world's greatest challenges," the statement said.

"We hold an unshakeable belief that cooperation between Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States is indispensable for meeting today's challenges and will set the stage for a prosperous future."

Seoul has beefed up security cooperation with Washington and Tokyo to bolster deterrence against North Korea's advancing nuclear and missile programs, as well as its growing military cooperation with Russia following the signing of a mutual defense pact in June.

North Korea has accused the Biden administration of a hostile policy toward Pyongyang.

On Tuesday, Pyongyang's state media warned South Korea and Japan's building of closer ties with Washington would risk turning their people into "cannon fodder" in the event of a nuclear attack.

The trilateral joint statement came ahead of the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise between South Korea and the U.S., set to begin Monday.

The North has long denounced the allies' joint exercises as a rehearsal for an invasion against it and has a track record of staging weapons tests in response. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · August 18, 2024



3. S. Korea, US to kick off key summertime military exercise this week



Like clockwork. every year at this time.

S. Korea, US to kick off key summertime military exercise this week

The Korea Times · August 18, 2024

Apache choppers take off at U.S. Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Aug. 12. Yonhap

South Korea and the United States will begin a major combined military exercise this week to strengthen their joint defense readiness in the face of evolving North Korean military threats, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Sunday.

The annual Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise based on an all-out war scenario is set to take place from Aug. 19-29, featuring the main computer simulation-based command post exercise, concurrent field training and civil defense drills.

The JCS said the exercise will further strengthen the ROK-U.S. alliance's capability and readiness to respond to any provocations and defend against North Korea's weapons of mass destruction by conducting multi-domain exercises utilizing a variety of assets, including land, sea, air, cyber and space.

The allies' exercise comes amid growing concerns over Pyongyang's continued weapons development push, highlighted by its launches of 37 ballistic missiles this year alone, and heightened cross-border tensions from the North's recent trash balloon campaign.

The allies said this year's exercise will reflect threats across all domains, including those posed by North Korean missiles, GPS jamming and cyberattacks, as well as lessons learned from recent armed conflicts.

The exercise will be similar in scale to the previous year, involving some 19,000 South Korean troops.

It will include 48 field training events, such as amphibious landing and live-fire drills, up from 38 field events conducted last year. The number of brigade-level exercises will also increase to 17 this year, compared with four from the previous year.

The North has long denounced the allies' joint exercises as a rehearsal for an invasion against it and has a track record of staging weapons tests in response. South Korea and the United States have rejected the accusation, describing their drills as defensive in nature.

During his visit to a western front-line unit last week, JCS Chairman Adm. Kim Myung-soo ordered troops to retaliate immediately in case of any provocations, saying the North is likely to use the allies' exercise as a pretext to stage provocations. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · August 18, 2024


4. S. Korea-US-Japan partnership to face test when Biden, Kishida leave office


That is the nature of our messy democracies. Leaders change. Leaders determine foreign policy and national security strategy.


While we want to institutionalize Camp David for national security and economic prosperity purposes because we believe it is the right thing to do, we do not institutionalize the agreements as a way to "inoculate" against leadership who we think might want to undo the agreements. It is incumbent upon those of us who agree that the Camp David agreements are important for US national security (and Japan and ROK national security) to make the case for the next leaders to sustain support for them. But we cannot advocate institutionalization as a way to "tie the hands" of the next leaders. That is undemocratic. That said, although the next leaders have the authority to undo agreements (less Senate approved treaties) (some incorrectly use the term the "right" to do so) the new leaders have the responsibility to do what is right for national security and national prosperity even if the previous administration enacted the agreement. It is irresponsible to undo an agreement simply because it was enacted by the previous administration.


Excerpts:

Yet observers say the three-way partnership now faces a test as President Yoon Suk Yeol’s Camp David partners — U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida — prepare to leave office.
...

Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), said Trump, if reelected, may want to shift the focus of the Seoul-Washington-Tokyo trilateral cooperation toward economic issues rather than regional security, diverging from the Biden administration’s approach.
"Trump may seek to rebrand the three-way relationship and come up with a new name for it in order to distance himself from Biden’s 'Camp David legacy' and establish his own priorities. And he would focus on protecting America’s interests on the economic front," the researcher said.
However, Cho said Trump is unlikely to fundamentally undermine or dismantle the three-way ties.
"Trump is indeed a skeptic of multinational partnerships, but he is likely to maintain the core framework of the trilateral partnership, which has provided significant strategic benefits to the U.S., including counterbalancing against China. This sentiment is already evident within the Trump camp," Cho said.

S. Korea-US-Japan partnership to face test when Biden, Kishida leave office

The Korea Times · August 18, 2024

President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden, center, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pose ahead of their trilateral summit meeting at the U.S. presidential retreat Camp David, Md., Aug. 18, 2023. Yonhap

Leaders reaffirm commitment to 3-way cooperation on 1st anniversary of Camp David summit

By Lee Hyo-jin

A pivotal moment looms for the trilateral partnership between South Korea, the United States and Japan, as one year has passed since the historic Camp David summit on Aug. 18, 2023, that opened a new era of strategic cooperation between the three nations.

The three leaders issued a joint statement, Sunday, celebrating the achievements of their trilateral security cooperation.

"We are working together to achieve our shared goals of advancing security and prosperity for the region and the world. We stand by our commitment to consult on regional challenges, provocations and threats affecting our collective interests and security," the statement reads.

The leaders highlighted key accomplishments in security areas, including the progress made by trilateral working groups focused on countering North Korea's threats.

Yet observers say the three-way partnership now faces a test as President Yoon Suk Yeol’s Camp David partners — U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida — prepare to leave office.

Kishida announced last week that he will not seek reelection in the upcoming leadership contest for Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in September. The winner of this race will become the next prime minister.

This announcement follows Biden's decision, made about a month earlier, to withdraw from the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential race. Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to compete against Republican candidate Donald Trump.

While experts don't believe these leadership transitions in Washington and Tokyo will fundamentally disrupt the trilateral relationship, they caution that Yoon may face challenges in building new ties with Biden and Kishida's successors.

At the same time, observers view that the three-way security partnership may depend more on the next U.S. leader than its Japanese counterpart, as Tokyo’s foreign policy priorities are expected to remain consistent under the next leader.

President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida make a toast at a restaurant in Ginza, Tokyo, March 16, 2023, during Yoon's visit to Tokyo. Yonhap

"Given Japan's tendency to follow U.S. leadership in forming multinational partnerships, and the Yoon government's continued friendly outreach to Tokyo, the next Japanese prime minister is unlikely to scale back trilateral cooperation," said Yang Ki-ho, a professor of Japanese studies at Sungkonghoe University.

Yang noted that potential candidates for the next prime minister, such as former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Digital Minister Taro Kono, are unlikely to deviate from Kishida's foreign policy.

"However, Yoon, who has fostered a close relationship with Kishida through multiple meetings, will have to put in efforts to build a similar rapport with Kishida's successor," Yang said.

Lee Won-deog, a professor of Japanese studies at Kookmin University, gave a similar analysis.

"The post-Kishida Cabinet is expected to reflect changes driven by internal party dynamics, aimed at regaining public support that has waned due to Kishida's political scandals. I would expect certain potential shifts in domestic policy under the new prime minister, but foreign and security policies will largely continue along the lines established by Kishida," Lee said.

The professor viewed that significant changes in the trilateral relationship would more likely come from the U.S. side, particularly if Trump returns to office. Under his "America-first" approach, Trump may seek to reevaluate the U.S.' multinational commitments made under Biden.

Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), said Trump, if reelected, may want to shift the focus of the Seoul-Washington-Tokyo trilateral cooperation toward economic issues rather than regional security, diverging from the Biden administration’s approach.

"Trump may seek to rebrand the three-way relationship and come up with a new name for it in order to distance himself from Biden’s 'Camp David legacy' and establish his own priorities. And he would focus on protecting America’s interests on the economic front," the researcher said.

Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump raises his fist during a campaign rally at the Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., Saturday (local time). AP-Yonhap

However, Cho said Trump is unlikely to fundamentally undermine or dismantle the three-way ties.

"Trump is indeed a skeptic of multinational partnerships, but he is likely to maintain the core framework of the trilateral partnership, which has provided significant strategic benefits to the U.S., including counterbalancing against China. This sentiment is already evident within the Trump camp," Cho said.

South Korea's presidential office expressed confidence that trilateral ties will remain robust regardless of leadership transitions in the partner nations.

"With the U.S. presidential election approaching and the LDP leadership election in Japan coming up next month, it is clear that the three leaders who established the Camp David cooperation framework cannot remain in their positions forever," a senior presidential official said, Sunday.

"Regardless of the leadership changes in the U.S. and Japan, the value of the Camp David framework is highly regarded across political and public sectors in both countries," he added.

The official also mentioned that the three leaders might hold another trilateral summit within this year, though discussions are still in the preliminary stages.

But observers believe that such a summit might not hold the same significance as the Camp David meeting, as both Biden and Kishida are seen as lame-duck leaders now.

"The trilateral summit may not carry as much weight, given that two of the three participants are outgoing ones," Yang said.

The Korea Times · August 18, 2024


5. A free and unified Korea


We all need to embrace this conclusion:


When top-down change is unlikely to happen, there is another way to make change occur: a grassroots-driven movement. To achieve this, North Korean residents need to realize the extent of the oppressive conditions they are enduring. They also need the courage to act for their cause no matter what price is paid. The Unification Doctrine addressed a necessary and desirable goal that needs to be fulfilled. But it will be an uphill battle to make unification happen.


​We should keep in mind the following. Unification will be hard. But it is not impossible. And in the end it will be worth it and Korea and all its people, Northeast Asia, and the world will be better for it.



  1. “Out of difficulties grow miracles.” — Jean de La Bruyère
  2. “Difficulties strengthen the mind, as labor does the body.” — Seneca
  3. “The greater the obstacle, the more glory in overcoming it.” — Molière
  4. “You may encounter many defeats, but you must not be defeated.” — Maya Angelou
  5. “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: It is the courage to continue that counts.” — Winston Churchill
  6. “Adversity causes some men to break; others to break records.” — William A. Ward
  7. “The only way out is through.” — Robert Frost
  8. “Challenges are what make life interesting. Overcoming them is what makes life meaningful.” — Joshua J. Marine
  9. “Life’s challenges are not supposed to paralyze you, they’re supposed to help you discover who you are.” — Bernice Johnson Reagon
  10. “The gem cannot be polished without friction, nor man perfected without trials.” — Chinese Proverb

A free and unified Korea

The Korea Times · August 18, 2024

President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers a speech for National Liberation Day at the Sejong Center for the Performing Arts in central Seoul, Aug. 15. Courtesy of presidential office

Rough road ahead to make Unification Doctrine work

President Yoon Suk Yeol’s vision for unification, the Unification Doctrine, is something that the nation has been waiting for.

In a speech marking the 79th anniversary of liberation, last Thursday, he said Korea’s independence from Japan’s 35-year colonial rule is losing its significance as the nation is still divided with the two Koreas facing off against each other.

President Yoon vowed to launch an aggressive diplomatic campaign to realize the vision of the Unification Doctrine. He noted that, just as the division of the two Koreas was the result of international power politics, unification is not something South Korea can achieve solely through its own efforts. To create an international consensus in favor of unification, he added that South Korea should prove that a unified Korea will contribute to international peace and prosperity. He made a valid point.

Regarding the unification of the two Koreas, there are many stakeholders, such as the the U.S. and other countries sharing borders with Korea, each acting in their own interests. Winning their hearts matters. South Korea needs to convince them that a unified Korea will be a boon for them too. However, it’s a task easier said than done.

On top of international support, German unification shows us that there is one more element needed to facilitate unification: favorable geopolitical circumstances.

It’s misleading to conclude that the Berlin Wall fell suddenly. German reunification happened against the backdrop of a widespread movement that caused communist regimes across Eastern Europe to fall one after another.

The current geopolitical circumstances facing the two Koreas are quite different from those of Europe in the late 1980s.

In a time when democratic and autocratic nations are clashing and concerns grow about the potential for World War III due to escalating conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East or both, expecting a geopolitical shift in Asia similar to the changes Europe experienced in the 1980s is nothing more than a daydream.

Given the current volatile international circumstances, South Korea’s efforts to launch an extensive diplomatic campaign to garner global support for Korean unification are unlikely to succeed.

For now, a free and unified Korea seems unthinkable.

The Unification Doctrine is a forward-looking vision, rather than a practical roadmap to unification for the two Koreas.

President Yoon presented a free, democratic Korea as a vision for unification. This is the goal declared since the 1994 initiative, which has been South Korea’s guiding principle regarding unification.

Compared to the 1994 initiative, the Unification Doctrine is more aggressive and assertive.

The 1994 initiative advocates a gradual approach based on inter-Korean consensus to advance unification. In contrast, Yoon’s proposal emphasizes freedom and human rights as fundamental values and calls for measures that would help North Korean residents awaken, enabling an informed grassroots movement to challenge the repressive regime and break free from the constraints that have held them back.

This difference between the 1994 initiative and the recent Unification Doctrine is not unusual. The 1994 vision, unveiled on Aug. 15, six weeks after the sudden death of then-North Korean leader Kim Il-sung, was the product of highly volatile geopolitical circumstances. At that time, North Korea was reeling from the sudden death of its leader as well as another shock: the collapse of the Soviet Union, which had been its security guarantor and provider of economic assistance.

The 1994 initiative is declarative in its nature as it made it clear that South Korea had no intention to change the status quo by force so as to prevent North Korea from miscalculating.

Now, Kim’s grandson is in power. Compared to his grandfather who was 82 in 1994, the younger Kim is inexperienced and volatile. North Korean residents are suffering the consequences of his brutal rule. Any change in North Korea — a precondition to moving unification discourse forward — seems unrealistic for now.

When top-down change is unlikely to happen, there is another way to make change occur: a grassroots-driven movement. To achieve this, North Korean residents need to realize the extent of the oppressive conditions they are enduring. They also need the courage to act for their cause no matter what price is paid. The Unification Doctrine addressed a necessary and desirable goal that needs to be fulfilled. But it will be an uphill battle to make unification happen.

The Korea Times · August 18, 2024


6. Politicians commemorate 15th anniv. of ex-President Kim Dae-jung's passing


Although not stated in the article it is likely that the Sunshine Policy prevented the collapse of the Kim family regime in the late 1990s. Some would argue this prevented a catastrophic event for Korea for the region, and the world while others might argue that it has prolonged the north-South conflict allowing north Korea to become a non-compliant (wth the NPT), unsafe, nuclear experimenter (with a tip of the hat to Bruce Bennett for coining that phrase).



Politicians commemorate 15th anniv. of ex-President Kim Dae-jung's passing | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · August 18, 2024

SEOUL, Aug. 18 (Yonhap) -- Key politicians of the rival parties gathered Sunday to commemorate the 15th anniversary of the death of former President Kim Dae-jung, a leading figure behind South Korea's hard-won democratization.

National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik, ruling People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon and Park Chan-dae, floor leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, as well as other key figures, attended the ceremony held at Seoul National Cemetery, where he is entombed.

President Yoon Suk Yeol and former President Moon Jae-in did not attend the memorial service in person, but each sent a wreath of flowers.

"Whether it was fighting against dictatorship or navigating through the International Monetary Fund financial crisis, (Kim) always trusted the people and served the people," Woo said in his eulogy.

He expressed his deep respect for Kim's bold leadership, which he said "opened new paths for South Korea and the Korean Peninsula."

"As inter-Korean relations are becoming increasingly confrontational and peace on the Korean Peninsula continues to falter, I realize how fortunate it was for us to have had a leader like him," he said.

Han, leader of the ruling People Power Party, also delivered a eulogy, saying Kim demonstrated foresight that transcended political divides more than any other politician in the current political realm and offered wisdom "more relevant today than ever before."

Kim, a longtime opposition leader and pro-democracy fighter, served from 1998 to 2003 and died in 2009. He is known for his contributions to democracy and efforts to improve ties with North Korea.

In 2000, he held the first-ever inter-Korean summit with then North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and won the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to reconcile with Pyongyang.


Political leaders and government officials attend a ceremony commemorating the 15th anniversary of the death of former President Kim Dae-jung at Seoul National Cemetery on Aug. 18, 2024. (Yonhap)


Han Dong-hoon, leader of the ruling People Power Party, delivers a eulogy at a ceremony commemorating the 15th anniversary of the death of former President Kim Dae-jung at Seoul National Cemetery on Aug. 18, 2024. (Yonhap)


(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · August 18, 2024


7. Yoon launches ‘North Korea Freedom and Human Rights Fund’ TF



​We are going to see the implementation efforts continue to unfold in support of the 8.15 Unification Doctrine.


Yoon launches ‘North Korea Freedom and Human Rights Fund’ TF

donga.com


Posted August. 17, 2024 08:01,

Updated August. 17, 2024 08:23

Yoon launches ‘North Korea Freedom and Human Rights Fund’ TF. August. 17, 2024 08:01. by 고도예 기자, 신나리 기자 yea@donga.com.

The government, led by the President's Office, established a task force team on Friday to initiate implementation efforts, including the creation of a 'North Korea Freedom and Human Rights Fund.' These follow-up actions commenced the day after President Yoon Suk Yeol unveiled a unification plan centered on freedom during his Liberation Day speech.


According to the President's Office, the task force, which includes First Deputy Director of the National Security Office Kim Tae-hyo, Unification Secretary Lee In-bae, and Unification Minister Kim Young-ho, is advancing plans to establish a North Korea Freedom and Human Rights Fund and to prepare a consultative body for inter-Korean working-level dialogue. In a phone call with The Dong-A Ilbo, an official from the Presidential Office said, "We are currently reviewing fundraising methods for the fund. While it is not yet confirmed whether the fund can be established within the year, our policy is to quickly activate support for private activities in North Korea." The North Korea Freedom and Human Rights Fund is a government-established initiative to support civic groups involved in human rights activities related to North Korea.


During a press conference on the same day, Minister Kim Young-ho was asked whether President Yoon's unification plan, announced the previous day, implied "unification by absorption," which would ultimately incorporate North Korea into the South Korean system. He emphasized, "That is not the policy of our government if you define it that way." When asked how the government plans to bring North Korea to the table for dialogue, he responded, "Since we proposed a dialogue consultative body through the Liberation Day congratulatory speech, the next step is to wait for North Korea’s response."


When asked about the possibility of halting loudspeaker broadcasts against North Korea—an issue sensitive to the North Korean leadership—as part of the proposed dialogue, Minister Kim said that he would not suggest such a measure. He explained, "The loudspeaker broadcasts are a response to North Korea's provocation with the filth balloons."

한국어


donga.com



8. Korea, U.S., Japan tout 'unshakeable belief' in cooperation a year after Camp David summit


Although not stated in the summit anniversary joining statement I hope that includes an unshakable belief in cooperation on unification and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea through a human rights up front approach and the use of public diplomacy/information campaign to empower the Korean people in the north to create change.


I notice that none of the Korean media outlets (so far) mentioned the omission of unification from the joint statement after Yonhap erroneously predicted that it would be included in the joint statement.


Sunday

August 18, 2024

 dictionary + A - A 

Korea, U.S., Japan tout 'unshakeable belief' in cooperation a year after Camp David summit

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-08-18/national/diplomacy/Korea-US-Japan-tout-unshakeable-belief-in-cooperation-a-year-after-Camp-David-summit/2115113

Published: 18 Aug. 2024, 16:58


  • SARAH KIM
  • kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr


Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, left, U.S. President Joe Biden, center, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, take a commemorative photo ahead of their trilateral summit at Camp David near Thurmont, Maryland, on Aug. 18, 2023. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]

The leaders of South Korea, the United States and Japan released a joint statement Sunday stressing their "unshakeable belief" in their trilateral security cooperation and the progress following their historic Camp David summit one year ago, in light of anticipated leadership changes in Washington and Tokyo.

 

"We stand by our commitment to consult on regional challenges, provocations, and threats affecting our collective interests and security," the statement released on the anniversary of the summit read. "Over the past year, we have demonstrated our unwavering commitment to these shared objectives through close consultation and coordination on priorities in the Indo-Pacific and beyond."

 

On Aug. 18 last year, Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a historic stand-alone three-way summit at Camp David in Maryland, where they agreed to immediately consult each other in the event of threats to their collective interests and security.

 

The three leaders adopted three documents at the summit: "Commitment to Consult," "The Spirit of Camp David" and "Camp David Principles."

 

They said through Sunday's statement that the "spirit" of the trilateral summit "continues to inspire us, and the principles we established at Camp David serve as a road map for our unparalleled cooperation."

 



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They noted the progress made by the three countries in combating efforts by North Korea to generate revenue for its weapons of mass destruction programs through cybercrime and other illicit means.

 

"We are resolved to maintain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, remain aligned in our shared vision, and stand ready to meet the world's greatest challenges," the statement continued.

 

The leaders stressed that they "hold an unshakeable belief" that cooperation among their three countries "is indispensable for meeting today's challenges and will set the stage for a prosperous future."

 

Related Article

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Defense chiefs of South Korea, U.S., Japan sign document formalizing trilateral security cooperation

Yoon, Biden, Kishida kick off trilateral summit at Camp David

South Korea, U.S., Japan hold trilateral drills involving aircraft carrier

The presidential office in Seoul said on Sunday that the major achievements of the Camp David summit have provided the basis to expand the geographical scope of cooperation from not only on the Korean Peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific region but also to the global arena.

 

Principal Deputy National Security Advisor Kim Tae-hyo said during a briefing at the Yongsan presidential office that the three leaders were in agreement that the Camp David summit was "a milestone that opened a new era of Korea-Japan-U.S. cooperation."

 

Such cooperation between Seoul, Tokyo and Washington "has developed to an unprecedented level" and has also led to tangible benefits for their people, he noted. It has further "contributed to enhancing our status as a global pivotal country."

 

Kim noted that the scope of the trilateral cooperation, which was previously limited to the traditional security field, has entered a comprehensive cooperation stage encompassing the economy, advanced technology, the cyber realm and human exchanges.

 

He added that the institutional foundation has been laid over the past year, such as making the trilateral summit annual, along with regular communication between foreign affairs, defense, national security and finance and industry officials.

 

In the security field, a real-time data-sharing system for North Korean missile warnings was initiated last December. In June, Seoul, Washington and Tokyo convened their first multi-domain Freedom Edge exercise, meant to encourage trilateral interoperability to ensure peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific region.

 

In late July, the three countries signed their new Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework, which institutionalizes security cooperation among defense authorities.

 

The leaders' latest statement appears to reflect the three countries' continued commitment to trilateral cooperation despite an anticipated change in leadership in both the United States and Japan.

 

Last month, Biden bowed out of the upcoming U.S. presidential race, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democrat's candidate for the election in November, pitting her against former U.S. President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. While analysts point out Harris would likely carry on the foreign policies of the Biden administration, Trump, since his days as president, has questioned the importance of U.S. support for its allies, including offering a U.S. nuclear umbrella to South Korea and Japan.

 

Likewise, Kishida announced earlier this month that he will step down next month and not run for a second term as leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

 

The three countries are in agreement on holding a trilateral leaders' summit within the year, a senior presidential office in Seoul told reporters Sunday.

 

"A summit has not yet been held in consideration of the domestic political situations of the three countries, including this being a U.S. presidential election year," the official added.

 

The presidential official assured that the three countries' support for the Camp David agreements remains steadfast, regardless of a potential change in leadership in the United States and Japan.

 

There is a possibility that a meeting between the leaders of the three countries could take place on the margins of international conferences scheduled for later this year, such as an Asean-related meeting to be held in Laos in October, the G20 summit in Brazil or APEC gathering in Peru in November.


BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]



9. Leaders of S. Korea, US, Japan vow unity on ‘greatest challenges’



​Unification is the greatest challenge and trilateral cooperation will be indispensable in achieving a free and unified Korea.


Leaders of S. Korea, US, Japan vow unity on ‘greatest challenges’

koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · August 18, 2024

Leaders highlight continuity, indispensability of trilateral cooperation ahead of elections in US and Japan

By Ji Da-gyum

Published : Aug. 18, 2024 - 15:17

In this file photo from August 18, 2023, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (left), US President Joe Biden (center), and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are pictured walking together following a trilateral summit at the Camp David presidential retreat in Maryland. (Yonhap)

The leaders of South Korea, the United States and Japan on Sunday reaffirmed their commitment to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific and underscored their readiness to confront the world’s "greatest challenges" through trilateral cooperation.

Seoul, Washington and Tokyo released a joint leaders' statement to "commemorate the tremendous progress" made in their trilateral cooperation over the past year, following the unprecedented standalone summit at Camp David on Aug. 18, 2023.

The summit between Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida led to the creation of the "Camp David Principles," a comprehensive framework for guiding trilateral cooperation, and the "Spirit of Camp David" joint declaration, which detailed the specific actions for collaboration based on the principles.

"We are resolved to maintain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, remain aligned in our shared vision, and stand ready to meet the world's greatest challenges," the English-language statement read Sunday.

"We hold an unshakeable belief that cooperation between Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States is indispensable for meeting today's challenges and will set the stage for a prosperous future," it added, referring to South Korea by its official name.

The one-year anniversary statement further reaffirmed the key agreements from the Spirit of Camp David joint declaration, including the governments' commitments to expeditious consultations for coordinated responses to regional challenges, provocations, and threats impacting their shared interests and collective security, as well as deepening their partnership at the multifaceted level.

"We stand by our commitment to consult on regional challenges, provocations, and threats affecting our collective interests and security," the statement read.

"We renew our commitment to enhancing security cooperation -- girded by the ironclad US-Japan and US-ROK alliances -- deepening the alignment of our shared economic and technological priorities, increasing coordination on global health initiatives, and further expanding the robust people-to-people ties between our three countries."

The three leaders praised the achievements of their trilateral cooperation, highlighting milestones such as the execution of the first-ever trilateral multidomain exercise Freedom Edge in June and the signing of a new Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework by defense chiefs in July.

The statement also underscored the progress made by their trilateral working groups in combating North Korea's efforts to fund its weapons of mass destruction programs through cybercrime and other illicit activities.

"The spirit of the Trilateral Leaders’ Summit continues to inspire us, and the principles we established at Camp David serve as a roadmap for our unparalleled cooperation," the statement read.

This file photo from August 18, 2023, shows South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, US President Joe Biden, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida holding a joint press conference following a trilateral summit at the Camp David presidential retreat in Maryland. (Yonhap)

Sustainability matters

A senior South Korean presidential official on Sunday dismissed growing concerns about the sustainability and durability of trilateral cooperation, noting that the eventual departures of Biden and Kishida are approaching.

Both Biden and Kishida have announced their decisions not to seek reelection in the upcoming US presidential election in November and the September election for the leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which will determine the next prime minister.

"The three leaders who built the Camp David cooperation framework cannot hold their positions indefinitely," the official said during a briefing on condition of anonymity.

"Across the political spectrum in both Japan and the US, there is widespread recognition of the US-Korea alliance’s importance, the significance of Korea-Japan relations, and the value of the Camp David agreements. Consequently, regardless of any leadership changes in the US or Japan, support for Camp David remains unwavering."

The official stated that the three countries have been in discussions to hold their first summit of the year before the end of this December, explaining that the trilateral summit has not yet occurred due to "political circumstances" in each country.

"There will likely be two or three opportunities in the second half of the year for the three leaders to meet on the sidelines of international events," the official said. "Washington and Tokyo share the view that it would be desirable to hold a trilateral summit this year, as promised. Discussions on the specific timing are currently in the early stages."

The three leaders committed to holding summits at least annually in the spirit of the Camp David statement.

This file photo from August 18, 2023, shows South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, US President Joe Biden, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida holding a trilateral summit in Laurel Cabin at the Camp David presidential retreat in Maryland. (White House)

Speaking at a Hudson Institute event in Washington on Thursday, Mira Rapp-Hooper, senior director for East Asia and Oceania at the White House National Security Council, confirmed that the three countries pursue holding a trilateral summit before the end of this year.

Rapp-Hooper also underscored the trilateral efforts over the past year to "increasingly institutionalize all these different forms of trilateral cooperation so that they will be built to withstand change and endure for the long term," despite the inevitable political shifts that come with democratic systems.

Jo Yang-hyeon, head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, stressed that the Yoon administration should proactively pursue diplomatic initiatives to maintain and build on the momentum of trilateral cooperation while mitigating potential risks associated with the upcoming leadership elections in the US and Japan.

Observers warn that a return to office by former US President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, who favors bilateral agreements over multilateral collaboration, could undermine the trilateral cooperation that has been a central focus of the current Biden administration.

"The timing is crucial, as Japan's new cabinet will be decided in September, followed by the US presidential election results in November, about a month and a half later," Jo told The Korea Herald this month.

"During this interim period, it is imperative that we engage in diplomatic efforts with Japan to maintain the current level of trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the US and Japan. This appears to be the most prudent course of action available to us."


koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · August 18, 2024


10. Joint Leaders’ Statement on the Anniversary of the Trilateral Leaders’ Summit at Camp David (with comments)



A swing and miss. We were served a pitch on a silver platter but instead of hitting it out of the park, we struck out. This is really disappointing. Why is there no mention of a free and unified Korea? This is why:



Too many Americans, especially among government officials, suffer from a unique American disease. They are infected with what might be called “U.S. unification dismissiveness.”   They are often myopically concerned with only denuclearization, or they believe surveys that say the Korean people no longer desire unification. They also think unification is only a Korean problem. This leads them to dismiss all discussions as well as policy and strategy recommendations about unification which means they do not understand the Korea problem and do not know how or even care to solve the “Korea question.” This is a strategic weakness for the U.S., and the alliance, especially as the ROK pursues its unification policy.

This was reported in Yonhap yesterday:


The statement is also expected to outline trilateral support for Yoon's new unification doctrine, which he announced during his Liberation Day address Thursday.


Why was there no support show for South Korea's new unification doctrine?  Rhetorical question. See above.


I suppose I can read between the lines and say support for unification is buried in this sentence. A free and unified Korea was mentioned in both the Camp David Principles and the Spirit of Camp David so we must be supporting our shared objectives in President Yoon's 8.15. Unification Doctrine. 


Over the past year, we have demonstrated our unwavering commitment to these shared objectives through close consultation and coordination on priorities in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

Additional information (I know I will be laughed at for including these points).


Strategic clarity in 26 words: "The two presidents are committed to build a better future for all

Korean people and support a unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace." Biden-Yoon

26 April 2023.

 

•       Spirit of Camp David: “We express support for the goal of the ROK’s Audacious Initiative and support a unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace.”

•       Camp David Principles: “We support a unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace.”

•       As a former military planner, I would consider the words of our presidents/prime minister as orders.

•       The question is how do we implement those orders?


Surely President Yoon has developed a plan to implement their "order" with his new 8.15 Unification Doctrine. Why can't the US and Japan pledge support for the only acceptable durable political arrangement (or end state for the traditionalists) that will serve, protect, and advance the mutual interests of the three nations and end the nuclear threats and the crimes against humanity? I am sure someone has convinced the senior leadership that focusing on unification will upset Kim Jong Un and he might do something rash because of it. To those people who are giving advice counter to the best interests of the three countries I would say this:


Let's not worry about what Kim is doing or will do. Let's make him worry about what we can and will do. Let's focus on human rights, information, cyber, sanctions, military readiness, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea. Let's present him with a broad front effort to bring peace, prosperity, and stability to the Korean peninsula by showing the Korean people in the north that their sacrifice and suffering is the result of Kim Jong Un's failed policies and strategy. Let's create conditions that will cause Kim to change his behavior or be faced with change from within.




August 17, 2024

Joint Leaders’ Statement on the Anniversary of the Trilateral Leaders’ Summit at Camp David

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/17/joint-leaders-statement-on-the-anniversary-of-the-trilateral-leaders-summit-at-camp-david/

We, the leaders of Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and the United States (U.S.), commemorate the tremendous progress in our trilateral cooperation in the year since our historic summit. The spirit of the Trilateral Leaders’ Summit continues to inspire us, and the principles we established at Camp David serve as a roadmap for our unparalleled cooperation. We are working together to achieve our shared goals of advancing security and prosperity for the region and the world.

We stand by our commitment to consult on regional challenges, provocations, and threats affecting our collective interests and security. We renew our commitment to enhancing security cooperation—girded by the ironclad U.S.-Japan and U.S.-ROK alliances—deepening the alignment of our shared economic and technological priorities, increasing coordination on global health initiatives, and further expanding the robust people-to-people ties between our three countries. Over the past year, we have demonstrated our unwavering commitment to these shared objectives through close consultation and coordination on priorities in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

We celebrate the accomplishments of our trilateral cooperation, including the inaugural execution of the trilateral multi-domain exercise Freedom Edge, the signing of a new Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework, and the progress made by our trilateral working groups focused on combatting efforts by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea to generate revenue for its weapons of mass destruction programs through cybercrime and other illicit means. We are resolved to maintain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, remain aligned in our shared vision, and stand ready to meet the world’s greatest challenges. We hold an unshakeable belief that cooperation between Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States is indispensable for meeting today’s challenges and will set the stage for a prosperous future.

###







De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com


 
 
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161


If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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