Central Oregon Market Report

Have Economic Conditions Impacted Pricing?

"If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn't thinking." ~ George S. Patton

There isn't much question that the real estate market is changing, with rising mortgage rates and inflation two significant contributing factors. Although, not everyone feels these impacts to the same degree. Cash buyers are not experiencing the pain of rising rates and inflation to some extent. But, how will these factors impact you? Everyone has a different financial reality, and the chart below helps shed some light on where the market has been and where it may be heading. A glance shows the trend in higher prices and a reduction in sales with fewer homes sold below 600k. The increase in sales volume above 600k is eye-opening, in addition to the extreme drop in the median days on the market. While the days a home takes to find a buyer have been dropping as the increase of people moving to Central Oregon has accelerated, the extreme drop in the time a home is actively listed since the pandemic began is startling. Another data point to consider is the increase in the time a home below 300k takes to find a buyer, primarily due to that segment of the market consisting of homes in seriously rough shape. While the volume of sales above $1.5M is partly due to home price inflation, a contributing factor is an increase in high-net-worth individuals relocating to our corner of the world. Although, across the board, from 300k and up, the median days on the market strongly favor sellers. Until the time a home takes to find a buyer increases to levels of 2020 and earlier, I wouldn't bank on a crash in real estate prices.

Nationally, there are signs that home sales are down, and prices are dropping. But, in Central Oregon, we have been insulated from those declines to date. Simply put, we do not have enough inventory of homes for new residents to purchase to satisfy demand, keeping prices firm. In addition, the new construction projects, a result of zoning laws, rarely have a lot size large enough to satiate buyers, making that segment of the market appealing to a narrow range of people. This dynamic points to a strong seller's environment for significantly larger lots in desirable areas. But keep in mind that correct pricing is vitally important as the market levels off from the insanity of the last two years. To borrow a phrase from the clothing industry, you don't want your home to become "shop-worn" as it lingers on the market. Of course, I am available to help you identify the correct price for your property, or you can use the many tools available on EnjoyBendLife.com to calculate your price range.

This week's numbers for the Deschutes County single-family home market show the bifurcation I spoke of earlier. While 617 active listings indicate a building inventory of homes for sale, it is still well short of a flood of properties that would decrease prices. Although, with a median amount of time listed before securing a buyer increasing to 26, an increase of one from last week and five the week of May 11 could be an early indicator of buyer reluctance. Another early indicator to watch is this week's 248 price changes in the active market at a median of -4.6%. Pending sales dropped to 91 from 102 last week, increasing from seven days listed to nine. Thirty of those pending properties reduced the asking price by -4.16%, a typical amount under normal market conditions. The sold homes dropped to 77 in the last week at a median price of 730k and six days listed before securing a buyer. The sold statistics reinforce the need for correct pricing; only sixteen properties reduced the asking price before going under contract at a median reduction of -1.02%. The median sold price has increased 43k from last week, and 65k from the seven days ending May11.

In contrast, the volume of homes selling below the median price has decreased, indicating the impact of rising mortgage interest rates on some buyers and the strength of other buyers purchasing today. Since January 1, of the 134 homes sold for over $1.5M, 43.3% were all-cash deals. With jumbo mortgage rates tracking well below conventional mortgages, many taking out loans used intelligent financial planning. If well-qualified buyers continue purchasing at this pace with cash, it will keep high-end home prices firm, while buyers that need financing will pull back.

Keep an eye on my weekly market reports for early indications of where are market is trending!

Property Search Links

Buyers and sellers alike need accurate, up-to-date information to make informed decisions. The Market Trend Reports I provide on EnjoyBendLife are a fantastic way to see how the active inventory of home prices is trending. These reports are updated on Sunday of each week, giving you insight into more than just the number of listed and sold properties. Click the links below or sign up to have a specific report emailed directly to your inbox. Once viewing the Market Trend reports, use the search box to enter any city in the country for the same data. These reports provide invaluable information for out-of-town buyers that need to sell a home in their community before moving to Central Oregon. Please let me know if you have any questions about interpreting this information.

Investor Search

Market Reports linked below show the active, pending, and sold properties for communities throughout Central Oregon, providing yet another powerful tool at your disposal on EnjoyBendLife. If a corner of Central Oregon you are interested in is listed below, click one of the links and view the reports. Or, use the Market Reports Tool and select your criteria for more specific information, such as subdivision, county, or city. You can choose to have these reports emailed directly to you at your desired frequency. Any Market Report you choose is updated every fifteen minutes, so you will always be on top of the market!