- Historically the “Santa Clause rally” is a period that lasts from the day after Christmas through the second trading session of the New Year. The Dow over this period has risen in 77% of the years since 1896 with an average gain of 1.5%.
- Coverage of tech-sector layoffs may be overdone. Research shows the unemployment rate would rise by less than 0.3% if everyone employed in the “internet publishing, broadcasting, and web search portal” industry was laid off.
- Data from Black Friday indicates growth in all areas: In-store and online sales were up 12% compared to 2021. Additionally, in-person shopping increased this year by 2.9%, as shoppers moved on from the coronavirus pandemic.
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The recent surge in Covid-19 cases and the resulting lockdowns across China are a strong reality check for investor optimism. The country's major stock index, the Hang Seng, has fallen nearly 27% since last year.
Market Watch- "'Santa Clause Rally' for Stocks is Likely This Year - But You Won't be Opening Presents Until After Christmas"
The Irrelevant Investor- "These are the Goods"
Bloomberg- "In Person Shopping Increased 2.9%: Black Friday Update"
WSJ- "China Will Get Over Covid-19. But Will its Markets Recover?"
Economic Calendar
Monday:
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard interviewed by MarketWatch, New York Fed President John Williams speaks at the Economic Club of New York
Tuesday:
S&P Case-Shiller U.S. home price index (SAAR) (Sep), FHFA U.S. home price index (SAAR) (Sep), Consumer confidence index (Nov)
Wednesday:
ADP employment report (Nov), Real GDP (SAAR) revision (Q3), Real gross domestic income (SAAR) (Q3), Real domestic final sales (SAAR) revision (Q3), Trade in goods deficit (advance) (Oct), Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speaks on small banks, Chicago PMI (Nov), Job openings (Oct), Quits (Oct), Pending home sales index (Oct), Fed Gov. Lisa Cook speaks at the Detroit Economic Club, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Brookings Institution, Beige Book
Thursday:
Initial jobless claims (Nov), Continuing jobless claims (Nov), PCE price index (Oct), Core PCE price index (Oct),PCE price index (year-on-year) (Oct), .Core PCE price index (year-on-year) (Oct), Real disposable income (SAAR) (Oct), Real consumer spending (SAAR) (Oct),Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speaks, S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI (final) (Nov), ISM manufacturing index (Nov), Construction spending (Oct), Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr speaks at the American Enterprise Institute, Motor vehicle sales (SAAR) (Nov)
Friday:
Nonfarm payrolls (Nov), Unemployment rate (Nov), Average hourly earnings (Nov), Labor-force participation rate, 25 to 54-year-olds (Nov), Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on regulation
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