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Good morning!
Yesterday we got the answer to our question....they were most definitely storm clouds rolling in!
The market did move higher initially and actually held for may many hours yesterday, but late in the session, around 3:45 PM EST, sellers came in and took the markets back down to the lows of the day. This was in stark contrast to what happened late in the day on Tuesday when they ripped it higher.
For now, after the "NVDA Top" as I called it last week, is the important reference high and we have been making lower highs and lower lows for the past several days. This is (at least for now) the start of the trend starting to turn and roll over.
When SPX cash takes out 5257, this could lead to further downside and my targets are 5193, then 5148 followed by 5100. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL HAPPEN ALL IN ONE DAY!!!! Please understand this. It could take several days to a week for these levels to play out. We are already getting a bounce this morning so look to sell into strength.
In the market profile pic below, you can see the price action in the overnight has come a great deal off of the lows (already 20 points in the /ES as of this writing) and as just mentioned above, this kind of market is now turning into "sell the bounces" rather than "buy the dips."
Futures are 100% net short this morning but lifting to balance out the overnight short term inventory, so target prior day low first at 5278.75 and then POC @ 5288. I feel that if and only if we take out yesterdays highs @ 5298.25 will this put a big damper on the bears selling action!!! Anything that stays below and builds value lower is a big edge for the bears.
SBUX: Stock has come very close to stops and I am adjusting slightly....will keep a close eye on this one as it is still profitable. Locking in gains with stop @ $76.50.
AMD Stopped out and locked in gains...will look to re-enter.
VPOC Update: We actually took one out below @ 5283.75 and added a new VPOC above yesterday @ 5325. We now have 1 above and 22 VPOC's below current price levels. This is the start of how a trend changes!!!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5300 - 5310
Key Levels: 5278.50 Yesterday's Low and Overnight High
downside target is: 5260 - 5250
/NQ upside target is: 18.900 - 18,925
Key Level: 18,820 1/2 Back and Value Area Low
downside target is : 18,745 - 18,725
/RTY upside target is: 2059- 2063
downside target is: 2026 - 2022
Economic Data: Very Active Today
GDP @ 8:30 AM EST
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM EST
International Trade in Goods @ 8:30 AM EST
Pending Home Sales @ 10:00 AM EST
Natural Gas Inventories @ 10:30 AM EST
Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00 AM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key demand at $5240-5265 then at $5285 with Supply above at $5350-75
1. Sellers trapped above $5285 after a break and retest hold as support
looking to play long targeting $5300 then $5310
2. Buyers trapped below $5300 looking to play short targeting $5270
SPY - Key Demand $522 and $527 with Supply above at $534
1. Sellers trapped after a failed breakdown with Support above at $524
looking to play long targeting $527
2. I will look to play short if price breaks and holds below $523 looking to
play short targeting new LOD where Demand would flip into Supply
SPX Key Demand at $5263 and $5278 with Supply above at $5341-5325
1. Buyers trapped after a failed breakout above $5320 after a pullback
looking to play short targeting $5315 then $5305
2. Sellers trapped above $5280 looking top lay long targeting $5300
/NQ Key Demand at and $18615 and at $18680 with Supply at $18880
1. Sellers trapped above $18679 looking to play long targeting $18730
2. A breakdown below $18880 where buyers are trapped after a break and
retest I will look short.
QQQ Key Demand at $453 with Sellers above at $455-456
1. Sellers trapped about $456 looking to play a break and retest long
targeting $458
2. A breakdown and hold below $456 after a strong break out , I will look for the reversal and play short target $453 then new LOD
AMD Key Demand at $162 with Supply above at $169-168
1. Sellers trapped above $164 as support / demand holds , I will look to play
long targeting $167 then 169
As ALWAYS, have your stops & targets in place!!!
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