SpaceX IPO

Greetings!

The widely anticipated IPO is almost here! SpaceX is officially planning to go public and is expected to begin trading in the open markets on June 12 under the ticker SPCX.

We have linked SpaceX’s S-1 filing HERE. An S-1 is the official registration document filed with the SEC for an initial public offering and includes information about the company’s business, financials, risks, operations, and other important disclosures.

If the SpaceX IPO is of interest to you, we have shared some initial thoughts below on the company, its financials, and several historical facts regarding historical IPO performance.

We understand the excitement and interest surrounding this IPO. However, at this point in time, we do not have plans to purchase shares of this newly public company on its first trading day without explicit client instruction. We are compiling a list of clients that have expressed interest in buying shares once SpaceX is public and we are happy to add you to that list if you are interested. That said, we always encourage investors to conduct their own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. While Elon Musk’s leadership and what he has built through SpaceX and his other ventures is admirable, newly public companies have historically been highly volatile investments.

To provide some context around IPO investing and SpaceX specifically, it is important to note that this offering is currently estimated to carry a valuation between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history.

Here are a few important facts to consider:

Over the course of U.S. stock market history, only 36 companies have gone public with a market capitalization greater than $15 billion. Only 9 of those have outperformed the S&P 500 based on returns from their first-day closing price. Only 17 (approximately) have generated positive returns at all.

Historically, IPOs often see strong first-day performance but struggle to maintain that momentum over longer periods. From 2012 through 2024, the average first-day return for IPOs was 23.4%, while the average three-year buy-and-hold return during that same period was only 7.6%.

This is also expected to be the most expensive IPO of all time from a valuation standpoint. Currently, Snowflake (SNOW) holds that distinction after going public at a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple between 50x and 60x. SpaceX is expected to IPO at an estimated P/S ratio between 90x and 110x.

Pictured below is a 5-year performance comparison between the Renaissance IPO Index and the S&P 500. The Renaissance IPO Index is a rules-based benchmark designed to track the performance of newly public companies.

Next, we want to share a little more about SpaceX’s business model.

SpaceX operates through three primary business segments: SpaceX, which develops reusable rockets and space transportation systems for a variety of missions; Starlink, which deploys satellites to provide high-speed internet from space; and xAI, which focuses on artificial intelligence through its AI model, Grok, paired with the social media platform X (formerly Twitter).

Combined, these businesses are focused on:

Revolutionizing Space Technology – "SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy rocket are a fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond."

Being the World’s Leading Launch Service Provider – "SpaceX leads the world in launches with its reliable, reusable rockets and is developing the fully and rapidly reusable rockets necessary to transform humanity’s ability to access space into something as routine as air travel."

Delivering High-Speed Internet from Space – "Starlink is the world’s most advanced satellite constellation in low-Earth orbit, delivering reliable broadband internet capable of supporting streaming, online gaming, video calls, and more."

Accelerating Scientific Discovery Through AI – "We build AI to understand the universe. Frontier reasoning, real-time voice, and generative media—designed to extend what humanity can know and do."

Lastly, below are several key financial highlights shared in the company's most recent S-1 filing (attached above).

SpaceX reported revenue of $18.67 billion for fiscal year 2025 but posted a net income loss of $4.9 billion, meaning the company is not yet profitable.

Starlink accounted for more than half of the company's revenue, generating $11.39 billion in 2025 and growing at an impressive 50% year-over-year rate.

The company also reported holding $15.8 billion in cash on hand as of March 31, 2026.

SpaceX spent more than $20 billion in capital expenditures during fiscal year 2025, with approximately $12.7 billion allocated toward xAI. Space and connectivity-related capital expenditures were each closer to $4 billion.

Perhaps the most interesting statement in the filing was SpaceX’s estimate of its total addressable market (TAM) opportunity, which exceeds $28 trillion across its three primary business segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI. See the graphic below for the full breakdown.

Overall, the SpaceX IPO is arguably one of the most anticipated public offerings of all time and has investors around the world intrigued by the opportunity. Historically, when companies IPO with significant excitement and attention, shares often see an initial pop before losing some momentum as investors take early profits. That said, SpaceX is rumored to potentially enter major indices like the Nasdaq 100 more quickly than usual, which could help support momentum and add institutional buying pressure.

The long-term growth opportunity is certainly intriguing given where AI, technology, and space exploration appear to be headed, but the financials are equally important to consider. The company is not yet profitable and continues investing heavily in its future growth. With Elon Musk serving in leadership roles (CEO, CTO, & Chairman), we believe the company is guided by a strong and ambitious vision.

That also brings us to the broader conversation surrounding speculation of a potential SpaceX and Tesla partnership or merger, which could create an entirely new scenario in itself. It is still far too early to know what something like that would look like, if anything at all, but it remains an important discussion point. The concept of AI technology, energy, robotics, rocket technology, vehicles, and some of the world's top engineers operating under one umbrella is certainly intriguing.

We are excited to see this name enter the public markets, but we are also approaching the opportunity cautiously and continuing our due diligence to better understand both the risks and opportunities involved.

Please do not hesitate to reach out if you would like to discuss the stock, the opportunity, or if you are interested in learning more about how to potentially get invested in this exciting new company.

Email Us!

Sources:

https://www.spacex.com/
https://x.ai/company
https://x.com/
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
https://www.barrons.com/articles/spacex-ipo-buy-stock-2a4acd38?eafs_enabled=false
https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/IPO-Statistics.pdf

Disclaimer:

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