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Weekly Analyst Review

5 July 2024

 

Bottom Line Up Front

On 29 June 2024, suspected Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) (or Boko Haram) twin female suicide bombers detonated IEDs at a wedding ceremony and outside the General Hospital in Gwoza, Borno State, Nigeria. The first suicide bomber struck the wedding celebration at 3 PM, followed by another explosion outside the hospital minutes later. The bombings resulted in at least 14 deaths and 100 injuries.


While no group has claimed responsibility yet, Boko Haram's historical use of women and girls for suicide missions strongly suggests their involvement. Boko Haram's use of female suicide bombers has raised suspicions that these attackers might be among the thousands kidnapped by the group over the years, including hundreds of students and children. The most notable Boko Haram kidnapping occurred in 2014 in Chibok, close to Gwoza, where militants abducted 276 schoolgirls, with nearly 100 still in captivity. 


All that said, TRAC contends that the unprecedented female twin suicide bombings are the work of Islamic State West Africa. The complexity and location are dead giveaways of an intricate Islamic State operation. Although ISWA used female bombers primarily in its early stages, other IS franchises, such as Islamic State East Asia (ISEA), have also employed women in similar roles. Therefore, there is no directive from IS Central prohibiting the use of female suicide bombers.


Rumours indicate that up to 30 ISWA female suicide bombers were dispatched to Gwoza from Pulka. Though TRAC remains sceptical about the exact numbers, even a fraction of this figure would be alarming. Given ISWA's history of claiming numerous roadside bombings from Pulka, this suggests that ISWA is behind these recent complex attacks. Boko Haram has not demonstrated the capability to execute such coordinated assaults since the death of Shekau.


Sources on the ground noted that one of the bombers had a baby strapped to her back before detonating the device. Among the casualties were men, women, children, and the beloved mother of former Borno Governor, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff. At least 42 people were wounded in the attacks.


The lack of an immediate claim of responsibility leaves the community in terror and fear, serving as a powerful propaganda tool for the militants. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu condemned the attacks as “desperate acts of terror” and “an isolated episode.” However, the militant insurgency in the region has resulted in over 35,000 deaths and displaced more than 2.6 million people, creating a severe humanitarian crisis. President Tinubu's assertion of control over the militant situation is undermined by such incidents, which erode public confidence in the government's ability to protect civilians and fuel militant propaganda.

At this point, TRAC wants to highlight that there have been four suicide bombings recorded in Nigeria within one week alone. This is clearly part of a larger coordinated strategy, where suspected Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) militants carried out multiple strikes at a wedding, hospital, funeral, and with this incident at a military checkpoint. Despite being the dominant force in the region, the use of suicide vests is highly unusual for the ISWA as they oftentimes prefer to carry out armed assaults, roadside bombings or vehicle-born suicide attacks (VBIED).

Other Developments

TRAC Incident Report: Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) Militants Force Burkinabe Militias to Retreat in the Area of Kabta, Banfora, Cascades Region, Burkina Faso

On 02 June 2024, militants of the Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) group engaged Burkinabe militias in an armed confrontation in Kabta, Banfora, Cascades Region. The skirmish resulted in the death of one militiaman, the capture of his weapon and belongings, and the subsequent retreat of his comrades.


This incident occurred on the same day that JNIM fighters seized control of a Burkinabe militia base in Biri, Cascades Region, marking the third attack by JNIM in the area within a week. This series of attacks underscores JNIM’s strategic focus on the Banfora/Cascades region due to its proximity to the Ivory Coast. Additionally, JNIM has recently expanded into Nigeria's Kebbi state as they push forward into the entire Subsaharan African belt.


JNIM militants have also recently launched an incursion into Benin, killing seven Beninese soldiers. The Ivory Coast, like Benin, appears more vulnerable compared to Ghana and Togo, which are also among JNIM’s expansionist targets. The escalating activity in the Cascades Region highlights JNIM’s intentions to extend its influence towards Ghana, Ivory Coast, Benin, and Togo.

TRAC Incident Report: National Resistance Front (NRF) Conduct Complex Armed Assault, Five Taliban Militants Dead, Kabul Military Airport, Afghanistan

On 01 July 2024, National Resistance Front (NRF) militants launched a sophisticated armed assault on the Kabul Military Airport Gate, which is adjacent to the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s (IEA) Ministry of the Interior. According to the NRF spokesperson, the attack resulted in the deaths of five Taliban militants.


The NRF has demonstrated the capability to exert moderate pressure on the IEA’s tenuous control over Afghanistan’s urban centers. TRAC theorizes that the NRF is likely receiving material support from anti-Taliban states such as China, Pakistan, Iran, and India.


The NRF's grievances against the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan include accusations of war crimes, extrajudicial killings of Afghan National Government personnel, and the Taliban's inability to govern Afghanistan following the U.S. withdrawal effectively. As the primary indigenous anti-Taliban resistance group, the NRF is adept at staging IED strikes, complex armed assaults, and sniper ambushes.


Notably, Ali Maisam Nazary, a Western-educated member of the Tajik-Afghan elite, serves as the Head of Foreign Relations for the NRF. Based in Panjshir, the NRF is considered the spiritual successor to Ahmad Shah Massoud’s guerilla movement, often referred to as the 'Lion of Panjshir.'


The success of the National Resistance Front hinges on its ability to unite the diverse elements of Afghan society, including the Hanafi, tribal mountainous communities, and the growing Wahhabi orthodox rural segment, while also maintaining the support of a pro-Western urban elite. This delicate balancing act is crucial for the NRF's continued resilience and effectiveness against the Taliban regime.

TRAC Incident Report: Neo-Nazi and Satanist Maniacs Murder Cult (MKU) Claims Responsibility for Explosion Near Entrance of a “Muslim Religious Center” in Fryazino, Moscow Region, Russia

On 24 June 2024, following the attacks on Orthodox churches and synagogues in Derbent and Makhachkala, Dagestan, neo-Nazi Telegram channels released a video showing a small explosion near the entrance of a residential building, allegedly a Muslim religious centre in Fryazino, about 30 kilometres from Moscow. The neo-Nazi group Maniacs Murder Cult (MKU) claimed responsibility for the explosion, stating it occurred on 23 June 2024.


The video shows a young man making hand movements before a small explosion occurs, illuminating the entrance with a green canopy, followed by car horns honking as the bomber quickly flees. The group described the attack as retaliation against Muslims for the complex attacks in Dagestan.


Murat Saidov, chief of the Fryazino Muslim Center "Path," located at 4 Moskovskaya Street, suggested in an interview with the Telegram outlet "No Future" that the incident might have been perpetrated by an intoxicated individual. Saidov did not report the incident to the police, but unknown individuals had alerted authorities. The building and canopy in the video closely resemble the entrance to the Fryazino Muslim Center, leading TRAC to posit that the explosion occurred at this location. The centre operates until 10:00 pm, suggesting the explosion likely happened after closing. Local news has not reported this act of vandalism, implying it was only noticed by the building's residents. TRAC cannot independently verify MKU's claim of responsibility.


Neo-Nazi groups in Russia, including MKU, operate underground and attract young members. Of all the neo-Nazi groups in Russia, MKU is among the most influential, with its ideology incorporating satanist beliefs. Typically, MKU supporters target vulnerable individuals such as homeless people, LGBTQ community members, and vagrants, making this attack on a facility or building highly uncharacteristic for the group.

(Anonymous Anarchists) Anarchists Arson Attack Against New Electrical Installation in Support of Palestinian & Kanaky Rights, in Noyarey, Grenoble Region, France

On 24 June 2024, anonymous anarchists set fire to a new 2,000-volt electrical installation in Noyarey, Grenoble Region, France. Alongside the arson attack, the perpetrators wrote and crossed out the word ‘Lynred’ and added ‘Free Palestine Kanaky’ beneath it.


The attack was a protest against the French government's stance and actions regarding the war in Gaza and the situation in New Caledonia, specifically the lack of support for the rights of the Indigenous Kanak community. The anarchists targeted the accessible cables crossing the Ruisset (or Gélinot) stream, causing significant damage. However, there were no major power outages in the surrounding neighbourhoods, which is why the incident was not discovered until the afternoon of the next day.


The anarchists responsible for the arson attack also expressed their opposition to France’s stance on the war in Gaza. Despite France condemning Israel's actions in Gaza and reducing arms exports to the country, it has not severed all military ties with Israel. The attack on the electrical installation was a clear act of sabotage, with the perpetrators leaving a message on a large sign welcoming visitors to a nearby park. Lynred is a French company that manufactures infrared detectors for military, space, and commercial applications, indicating that the anarchists were also targeting companies benefiting financially from the war in Gaza.

TRAC Insight: Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and Nigerian Bandits Appear to Be Forming a Symbiotic Relationship in Benin

TRAC Incident Report: William Anhert, Ex-United States Soldier, Arrested for Manufacturing IEDs for the Gulf Cartel (CDG) Scorpion Group in Rio Bravo, Tamaulipas, Mexico

(Chatter) Right Wing Extremists ‘Bear Flag Nationalist’ Critise Lack of Attention from both Presidential Candidates on White Families & their Struggels, California, United States

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