Typically, the inventory of homes for sale grows at this time of year, and this year is no exception. However, while prices have aggressively accelerated in the last two years, the beginning of peak selling season this year is showing slight moderation. This morning there are 591 single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County, with 102 pending in the last seven days and 90 sold. Price changes for the sold, pending, and actively listed properties are negative four percent, up from the frenetic pace of last summer but still well within the range of a healthy seller's market. Inflation, recession, housing bubbles, and the stability of home prices during these times have been hot topics of late, with many experts firmly entrenched in their beliefs one way or the other. I could link to dozens of articles about the next housing crash or tangible assets being safe-haven during inflationary times. Which is the correct answer? Likely somewhere in-between. While the goldilocks answer, in essence, a "just-right" mix of the two may be mundane, at the moment, that seems to be a likely scenario for Central Oregon.
Like most real estate agents, I speak with many buyers waiting on the fence for the housing market to crash. Having worked in real estate during the sub-prime lending fiasco that sent housing prices plummeting, I understand the sentiment. But, generally, I find the "this time it's different" answer to be intellectually lazy, although a couple of factors could prevent a complete unraveling of home prices in Central Oregon.
First, the dynamics of the pandemic (endemic?) that played out made restrictions in large cities infinitely more challenging to navigate than in smaller communities like Bend and Central Oregon. Second, today's technology allows many highly paid professionals to work from home, a scenario that was unheard of in 2008 and has only until recently become the norm. Finally, with states like California seeing the first net loss of residents, there isn't any doubt a significant number of people are not interested in living through another winter of whatever oppressive pandemic rules come down the pike in a large city.
I addressed real-interest rates in my last email and why many buyers are unfazed by rising mortgage rates. So how should buyers react to all of these unknown factors? Unfortunately, there isn't one expert who knows, but many educated opinions could become a reality. Or not.
The answer is quite simple. The most significant forces you should consider are how long you plan to be in your next home and how stable your ability to (and desire) pay a mortgage is. The calculus rather than a mortgage would be the lost opportunity costs of removing a large amount of cash from other investment opportunities for cash buyers. It may be appealing to look at property prices and calculate the significant appreciation, but just like the stock market, those are unrealized gains. Selling creates a host of issues; not least would be identifying replacement property. The long-term view still rules when it comes to housing.
The last thing to consider is how long you are happy being on the sidelines rather than getting settled into the next phase of your life. There are many remarkable properties and locations throughout Central Oregon, and waiting for a crash that may never happen only puts your life on hold. Yes, prices are moderating, but low inventory and strong buyer demand are so far preventing a significant decline in prices. So if you plan to be in your next home for a decade, is it worth waiting a year to purchase at prices that are not much different from today? Or, worse yet, letting your dream property slip away, only to have less appealing choices in the future?
The tools at your disposal on EnjoyBendLife.com are available to make the best decision for you. Please do not hesitate to utilize my website or reach out to me directly for help making a great decision. The only expert that matters in purchasing a home is YOU!
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Buyers and sellers alike need accurate, up-to-date information to make informed decisions. The Market Trend Reports I provide on EnjoyBendLife are a fantastic way to see how the active inventory of home prices is trending. These reports are updated on Sunday of each week, giving you insight into more than just the number of listed and sold properties. Click the links below or sign up to have a specific report emailed directly to your inbox. Once viewing the Market Trend reports, use the search box to enter any city in the country for the same data. These reports provide invaluable information for out-of-town buyers that need to sell a home in their community before moving to Central Oregon. Please let me know if you have any questions about interpreting this information.
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Market Reports linked below show the active, pending, and sold properties for communities throughout Central Oregon, providing yet another powerful tool at your disposal on EnjoyBendLife. If a corner of Central Oregon you are interested in is listed below, click one of the links and view the reports. Or, use the Market Reports Tool and select your criteria for more specific information, such as subdivision, county, or city. You can choose to have these reports emailed directly to you at your desired frequency. Any Market Report you choose is updated every fifteen minutes, so you will always be on top of the market!
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Reed Melton
(541) 408-6625
Allow me to put my knowledge and
expertise to work for you!
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