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Good Thursday morning!
Well, now we know which way the scales were to be tipped, and boy did the sellers tip them aggressively lower yesterday! I can honestly say I was somewhat surprised by the velocity and range to the downside, and I'm sure others were surprised as well, as now longs are trapped above! Trust me, I was prepared for the market to go either direction but that was a vicious drop on no specific news. For those who are thinking tariffs, yes tariffs are talked about everyday but they didn't seem to care about tariffs on Monday. Just saying!
As we are all seeing, this market has been swinging wildly and now the sellers took it right back down after that huge gap higher Monday! There were great opportunities to the short side once we broke out of that balance, and please remember, the markets could have broken out to the upside as well....we never know for sure which way it will go once the bell rings....but paying attention to the key levels and targets we give you each day will help put you on the right side of the trade.
In the profile pic and key levels below, it is a bit more complicated today as I am not sure whether the buyers will come right back in and buy this dip, or whether this pullback empowers the sellers. We are trading mixed in the futures and ES is below the POC (Point of Control). Any price action that stays below the POC will certainly be more bearish and we should be looking for lower targets. If buyers take price above 5759.50, then we should be looking for the next area at 5773, which is the overnight high and then 5788, which is where 1/2 back and a set of single prints reside, then upper targets. I have put a box around the single prints for you.
For those who are new to MC and Market Profile, single prints occur when there is massive volatility and emotional selling (or buying). As we saw yesterday, there was panic and emotional selling so that caused a "split" if you will, in yesterday's session. Think of that area as the measure between two different distributions and two separate sessions. Any price action that takes out yesterday's low, which was poor, and I have circled it for you, then look for lower targets then possibly 5720. Futures are trading at 5751 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's added or taken out yesterday, so we still have 6 above and 22 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5790 - 5800
Key Levels: 5759.50 POC
downside target is: 5740 - 5730 then 5720
/NQ upside target is: 20,260 - 20,300
Key Level: 20,120 POC
downside target is : 19,995 - 19,955
/RTY upside target is: 2100 - 2110
downside target is: 2070 - 2060
Economic Data: Very Very Busy Day Red Star Event
3-Month Bill Settlement
6-Month Bill Settlement
6-Week Bill Settlement
GDP @8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods (Advance) @ 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits @ 8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories (Advance) @ 8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories (Advance) @ 8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
Treasury Buyback Result @ 2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30 PM ET
Thomas Barkin Speaks @ 4:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5720-25 then below that at $5660 with Supply above $5837 HOD- $5825
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5750 looking to play a break and retest above $5775 long targeting $5790 then $5815
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5750 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5740 targeting GAP fill $5720 then a break down into $5600s
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SPY Key demand at then at $566- 565 then at $556 with Supply above that at $576-574
Bullish Sellers trapped above $566 looking to play a break and retest from $565 long targeting $564 then a breakout mid high $562s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $566 after a break and retest below $565 targeting $564s then a breakdown into $563s
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/NQ Key demand at $19980 - $20000 with Supply above at $20380
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19980 looking to play a break and retest above $20000 long targeting $20100s then a breakout back into low $20200s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19980s looking to play short from $19965 targeting a breakdown $19800s then $19650s
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QQQ Key Demand at $481 then at $484 with Supply at $491
Bullish Sellers trapped above $484 looking to play a break and retest from $485 targeting $487 then a breakout into low mid $488s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $483 looking to play a break and retest short from $482 targeting $481s then $479s
Have a great day!!
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