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Good Friday morning,
After some new attacks between Israel and Iran over the past 24 hours, tensions keep increasing and the stock market is showing stronger downside selling and heightened volatility with the news. For a very long time the markets didn't care and completely blew off the wars between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Hamas, but now that the insiders have been selling over the past 8-10 weeks and are mostly out, the markets all of a sudden now care. Pretty ironic if you ask me!
Anyway call it my cynical side or the fact that I don't trust the market as far as I can throw it, the clues and signs were there and we are hoping that people have been lightening up their long positions in their portfolios.
Doesn't mean you have to sell everything because some names are still holding up very well, like META and GOOGL but look at AAPL, MSFT and TSLA as examples...selling pressure continues to pick up in these names! AAPL is almost to those target lows of October 2023 @ $166.83
One important thing to note in the overnight session is that the low came right into the 61.8% retracement from the January 2024 lows to the March 2024 highs showing us that responsive traders stepped in and bought those lows! We are almost 90 points off of those overnight lows so this is a quite impressive move as traders bought the dip @ 4975
In the profile pic below, the levels are there to watch...if we can stay above yesterdays low, then look for upper levels and targets to be hit. If we start to roll back over below 5038.50, then look for 5030-5020. The markets will show us today whether or not people the think the pullback has been enough and will step back in to buy the dip. If not, then we still have lower to go!
VPOC Update: No change....we have 2 above @ 5297.75 and 5151.50 and we now have 16 still below with closest one @ 5033.75 so this could be in play again today! (By the way, VPOC's need to be taken out during regular trading hours, not overnight sessions.)
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5080 - 5090
Key Level: 5050 - 5055 Overnight high and 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5030 - 5020
/NQ upside target is: 17,740 - 17,750
Key Level: 17,553 - 17,571 Overnight high and 1/2 Back
downside target is : 17,425 - 17,400
/RTY upside target is: 1980- 1985
downside target is: 1940 - 1935
Economic Data: Very Light today!
**FED member Goolsbee speaks today @ 10:30 AM EST!
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key Supply at $5060 -5045 then at $5100 -5090
1. Buyers trapped below $5100 looking to play short targeting $5058
2. The only way I can look to play long is if price breaks and holds
above $5120 after a large breakout and support from buyers on the
tape
SPY - Key Supply at $502-504 then at $506 with demand at $494
1. Buyers trapped inside Supply $504 looking to play short targeting $499 the LOD after a break and retest from $503
2. I would only look to play long if price can find support above $506
SPX - Key Demand at $5,000 with Supply above at $$5080 then at $5177.92
1. Buyers trapped after a breakout to the upside below $5100 looking to play short targeting $5075 then $5040
2. I would only like to play short if price can break and hold above $5100
/NQ - Key Supply at $18000 - 17987.55 then above at $18300
1. Watching buyers trapped below $17900 looking to play short targeting
$17767 then $17700
2. Only interested in playing long if price can reclaim support above $8000
QQQ - Key Supply above at $426-424 then at $429
1. Buyers trapped at $426-425 supply area looking to play short target $422
2. I only want to play long if price can reclaim above $429 targeting $432
AMD Key Demand not until $143-145 with supply from yesterday and
Wednesday at $158-156 then above that at $164-165
1. Buyers at the open trapped below $158 looking to play short targeting
$155
2. I will only look to play long if price can reclaim above $161 targeting $164
TSLA Key Supply from yesterday at $154 with down trend : If price can break above $155 and hold i will look to LONG off a break and retest from $154
1. Buyers trapped below $154 looking to play short targeting $150 then $149
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have a great day and a fantastic weekend!
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