June 9, 2026

From Rick's desk...

Stock Market Near Highs: Is Optimism Overpriced?

Dear Clients and Friends,

Equity markets have continued their advance in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 near a record high following a rare nine-week winning streak on strong AI-driven earnings and prospects for an Iran agreement. While the macro backdrop remains mostly constructive, valuations are elevated by most traditional metrics, and oil remains near $100 with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. Is the stock market pricing in too much good news?

To answer this question, we suggest not putting much emphasis on valuation. Valuation metrics such as the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) are helpful in assessing long-term return potential and downside risk, but they are historically poor market timing tools. The S&P 500’s P/E near 21 can be justified by solid earnings growth and a resilient U.S. economy, although further expansion will require continued cooperation from key drivers such as inflation (oil prices) and interest rates. Unless these macro inputs improve, returns in the second half of the year are likely to be modest, potentially with some bumps along the way.

Against this backdrop, the role of AI remains central. Technology companies, particularly the mega cap hyperscalers, have continued to deliver compelling earnings growth, even as skepticism around the magnitude of investment and timing of eventual returns persists. Results have continued to point to accelerating investment and demand for computing resources. Some big moves in semiconductor and IT hardware companies over the past week suggest the market has not quite caught up to the magnitude of these investments – expected to exceed $750 billion this year and up about 50% since 2026 began.

While valuations appear elevated at the index level and speculation in certain market segments may have gone too far, parts of the technology sector may actually be undervalued relative to their growth potential. Skepticism about the productivity gains AI will bring remains widespread, leaving room for potential upside surprises. At the same time, heavy AI-related capital expenditures have depressed free cash flow, which introduces risk if anticipated productivity gains fail to materialize.

Looking ahead, the market narrative will continue to hinge on the intersection of valuations and AI-driven earnings growth. Elevated multiples and sticky inflation suggest more limited upside from higher valuations, placing greater importance on earnings to come through. AI remains a powerful tailwind for both economic activity and corporate profits, supporting the case for staying invested. The promise of what AI can bring is exciting, but the optimism may be getting ahead of what the technology can deliver. As a result, maintaining discipline around diversification and risk management takes on greater importance

With the year already halfway through, now is a great time to check in and make sure you're on track. If you'd like to schedule a mid-year review, please give our office a call. And as always, if you have any questions or would simply like to talk through things, don't hesitate to call me directly anytime. I'm always happy to help.



Best regards,

Rick

Richard B. Welsh, A.A.M.S.

Founder & President

From Marie's desk...

Lifelong Learning in Retirement

Dear Clients and Friends,

One of the most honest things we hear from clients approaching retirement is: “I’m not sure what I’m going to do next… I don’t know where I want to live, or even what I want anymore.”

If that sounds familiar, you’re in good company.

Retirement is a major life transition. After years of structure built around work, family, and responsibilities, it’s completely natural for the next chapter to feel a little unclear at first. For many people, this is the first time in decades they’ve had the space to really think about what they want life to look like.

That’s why we often remind clients that financial plans are living, breathing documents. As life changes, your plan should evolve with you - so we can adjust along the way as your goals, interests, and priorities begin to take shape.

What we consistently see is that the most fulfilled retirees are not the ones who had everything figured out from day one. They are the ones who stay open - to trying new things, exploring new interests, and saying yes to experiences they didn’t have time for before.

Lifelong learning in this stage of life doesn’t have to be formal or structured. It can be a class, a hobby, volunteering, travel, or simply the curiosity to explore something new. More often than not, it’s less about becoming an expert and more about staying engaged with life in a new way.

And over time, that willingness to explore often leads people somewhere meaningful - sometimes in ways they never expected.

If you are in this stage and feeling uncertain, that’s okay. In many ways, that’s exactly where the next chapter begins.

And when you’re ready to talk through your next step - or if you’ve decided on some changes and want to update your plan - please give us a call so we can make sure everything is aligned to support your goals and dreams.

Best,

Marie

Marie A. Welsh

Partner & Chief Operations Officer

A Little Evening Tradition

At the end of most days, I have a small wind-down routine that has turned into something a little more competitive than I originally planned.

I play three quick New York Times games - Wordle, Connections, and Strands. They don’t take long, but they’ve become a fun way to transition out of the workday and into the evening.

What started as something I did on my own has now made its way into our family group chat, which has added a friendly layer of competition - especially around Wordle, where we compare who can solve the puzzle in the fewest attempts.

My personal favorite is Connections. If you play, you know the purple category can be the trickiest - sometimes obvious, sometimes completely impossible - but that’s part of what makes it fun.

Do you all play? If you ever want to share your results, feel free to text me - we may have to start some friendly competition.

410.777.5897