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One story, curated by Gregory Bufithis. More about me here.


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THOUGHTS OVER MY MORNING COFFEE:



OpenAI has a meltsdown while to Board sings "We're just a lovely bunch of coconuts!" (apologies to Merv Griffin) 


I was writing about a world at war for my Sunday post, but got depressed. So I switched gears. OpenAI is more fun!


WITH A POSTSCRIPT: the complexity of the OpenAI corporate structure.



16 November 2023 -- You got it right, John:


Nobody told me there'd be days like these

Nobody told me there'd be days like these

Nobody told me there'd be days like these

Strange days indeed

Strange days indeed


– John Lennon



So Sam Altman was suddenly fired by the OpenAI this past Friday by the Board of Directors, with no notice, but now its in discussions with Sam Altman to return to the company as its CEO, at least according to a an article in The Verge post yesterday. Although the Board might be waffling, and Altman “ambivalent” about returning. You can read all the background and fun and games by clicking here.


At least three things follow.


1. The board has proven itself fickle, regardless of outcome.


2. If Sam doesn’t come back, Mira Murati (formally chief technology officer of OpenAI but now made interim chief executive officer) might rightfully be perturbed, and ... if the rumor is correct ... they’ve now undermined her. Maybe she won’t even accept - or have bigger demands of the company.


3. If Sam does come back, they will have accomplished nothing (and they'll probably lose Ilya Sutskever (an OpenAI co-founder and serves as Chief Scientist of OpenAI) and can throw away the planned $86B secondary sale, and returned to someone they don’t trust, and give him more power, which may inherently undermine safety.


4. To be clear, Khosla Ventures wants Sam back at OpenAI but will back him in whatever he does next. And one of reasons Altman was fired was because he was trying to raise $$$ for a new genAI company (remember , he has no equity position in OpenAI). Khosla Ventures was the first outside investment in OpenAI when it established a for-profit arm in 2019. Khosla put in $50 million which on Friday (before the purge) was estimated to be worth $5 billion.


5. And you pissed off Microsoft. But how in hell Nadella put in $13 billion without a board seat or any management input I'll never figure out.


6. From the outside, it’s extremely hard to see how all that adds up to a well-played, well-thought through hand. It makes the old Yahoo board look like geniuses.


But my point #4 above is the magic bullet. Besides playing coy about founding his own AI company (insiders say the #1 reason he was canned), was that he was a pro at raising money. Mira and Ilya have never raised a penny as entrepreneurs, and all of a sudden the Board went "Hmmmm.... " 🤔


And money they will need to raise since their venture’s unit economics don’t make sense. Remember, you pay $0.30 every time someone asks a doofus question to ChatGPT. Heck, I sometimes ask the same thing 5 times. 


Worse, as venture capitalist Varun Mather pointed out in a blog post:


You sideswiped your biggest partner, Microsoft. Of course publicly they will say the right thing, but you know and they know it and a random fellow like me knows it - they must be seething mad about it. 


Few of your top researchers have already quit, and if there is one thing Sam Altman is especially good at, it is raising and deploying capital. Before the sign with your name and title as “CEO” and “Defacto CEO” gets emblazoned in the OpenAI offices, Sam would have a new company, $1 billion investment and offers out to all your, soon to be ex, top product people and researchers. 


So you head into next week having lost your top dealmaker, top researchers, top product visionary, top partner and top investor, and with a business which has terrible unit economics.  


Varun gets it right. If you have ever started your own company (I have started 4 but all were small potatoes) you face the abject rejection which follows from pitching many investors, going through the process, and getting sooooo close. So, getting to actually close is the toughest. Sometimes investors say yes, but they don’t actually mean it. Sometimes they even sign, and still don’t wire the funds. You will need to live through all of it, the pain and rejection, and feel intense amount of pressure of having to provide for your team members - who pays their mortgages, car loans, kids school tuition - the ones whom you played with at the last company picnic. 


Bottom line? Oh, there are too many unknown unknowns so it is still 🍿 time. But a quick summary on what might happen next after the OpenAI schism:


1. My guess is Sam Altman and Greg Brockman will start something or several new things in the general AI arena. Until Friday it was hard to see any founder having sufficient credibility to raise enough to enter the foundation model space. Both Sam and Greg have this credibility. And funds exist, either on corporate balance sheets or with sovereign funds or VC firms. 


2. Many of the “go faster” people will leave OpenAI, quite possibly to join any new venture that Sam and Greg create. This team will likely move at a more rapid iterative rate than OpenAI ever did. And OpenAI was fast.


3. What will be left in OpenAI will be a “go slower, more methodical” group that will reflect in some way the more scientific culture of DeepMind. Those cultural differences led to OpenAI securing a market lead over Google a year ago.


4. OpenAI will need to think really hard about how it pays for itself given Sam’s unparalleled ability to raise funds — and I agree with Varun above: it’s unclear whether the OpenAI board and interim CEO will be able to do this.


5. Microsoft is in a tough short-term position. The huge risk it took by partnering with OpenAI without board representation exploded in its face. I expect the OpenAI team will work hard to keep them on side. To be at the behest of a board that has handled this poorly is probably not an option. Microsoft could formalise their relationship more with OpenAI (perhaps by splitting its activities) and securing better governance rights or board seats or starting to end its dependance on OpenAI by doubling down on its own capabilities


* * * * * * * * * * * * * *


POSTCRIPT


OpenAI's complex capital structure


Two things straight away:


  • OpenAI's unusual company structure weakened Sam Altman's position as CEO and left him open to surprise on Friday when he was quickly ousted from the company.


  • The structure of the company helps explain how he was left in a vulnerable position that, as he said on Saturday, left him feeling "a little screwed."


It's rare to see founders forced out of a firm they helped co-found. At Uber, for example, founder Travis Kalanick was forced out only after a series of reports on privacy issues and allegations of discrimination and sexual harassment at the ride-sharing company. 


But Altman and co-founder Greg Brockman, who also left OpenAI Friday, didn't have the power that Kalanick had.


"I have no equity in OpenAI," Altman said in a May Senate hearing on A.I. Senator John Kennedy's reaction offered some foreshadowing.


"You need a lawyer or an agent," Kennedy said in a now-prescient joke.


The structure of the company helps explain how he was left in a vulnerable position that, as he said on Saturday, left him feeling "a little screwed."


OpenAI's capped profit structure


The easiest way to think of OpenAI's structure is to picture a waterfall. The board of directors sits at the top. OpenAI Global, the capped-profit company in which Microsoft invested billions and of which Sam Altman had become the global face, sits at the bottom. There's some stuff in the middle.


So let's start at the very top of the waterfall. OpenAI's board of directors – the ultimate decision body and the group responsible for pushing Altman out – controls OpenAI's 501(c)(3) charity, OpenAI Inc. That charity is the nonprofit of which you may be aware. It was established to "ensure that safe artificial general intelligence is developed and benefits all of humanity."


The company's website says the nonprofit's charter takes "precedence over any obligation to generate a profit." In other words, the nonprofit is the priority, while the capped-profit Open AI Global subsidiary is not.


There's a holding company and another LLC called OpenAI GP, which both give the board ownership or control over OpenAI Global. Again, that's the company Microsoft invested in. It's the one you hear about in the news when Altman talks about ChatGPT developments and whatnot. What's important here is that OpenAI Global had no control. It was the one controlled or owned by all of the other entities in various ways.


So now you're probably wondering — why have a for-profit company at the bottom of a corporate structure if everything's just going to be run by a nonprofit? There's a reason for that, too.


Limited returns


OpenAI added its capped profit OpenAI Global subsidiary in 2019. The shift was prompted by several things, including a desire to attract top employees and investors with "startup-like equity."


Remember, if your ultimate goal is to ensure the safe use of AI, you're going to want to bring on some really smart people. And that's tough when every big company on the market is willing to pay them top dollar to work. So if you're OpenAI, you need incentives.


Part of that shift to a for-profit model meant reassessing how OpenAI rewarded those employees and investors who gambled on the company. The company settled on a capped-profit approach. It limited the "multiple" that investors could make by sending cash OpenAI's way.


At the time, the profit cap was set at 100x of a first-round backer's investment. In plain language, if investors put in $1, even if OpenAI was making billions of dollars in profit, that investor would be limited to $100 in total direct profit. It would still be a sizeable return, but not unlimited.


But remember, the core mission of the nonprofit is to control the development of artificial general intelligence. And all investors and employees are subject to that mission above anything else, including the for-profit company.


OK, so we have a nonprofit with a business that makes profits in order to attract top talent. How does Altman fit in here and how'd he get ousted?


Sam Altman's missing equity


Altman had a board seat and was the best-known OpenAI personality. Aside from a small investment through a YCombinator fund (Altman was formerly its president), he doesn't have any equity in the company. And that meant he didn't have much control if anything turned against him.


He even joked about it Friday evening: "If I start going off, the OpenAI board should go after me for the full value of my shares."


In fact, it reportedly worried some investors that Altman didn't have ownership in the company he helped co-found, despite Altman's public pronouncements that he was committed to OpenAI because he loved the work.


Most founders at later-stage companies take advantage of a dual-class share structure. Two tiers of shares are created — a set of shares for venture investors and the general public, if the company makes it to an IPO, and a more powerful set of shares reserved for founders or, in some cases, major investors.


CEOs and founders use dual-class share structures to protect themselves from losing control of their company. The rights assigned to these shareholders vary, but they often include outsize voting power, guaranteed board seats, or other governance provisions that make it hard for a board to topple them even if a company goes public. Some companies, like Google, even have three classes of shares, for its founders, employees, and investors.


Altman didn't have those protections. Brockman, the former OpenAI president, said that Altman found out he was "being fired" in a virtual meeting Friday noon. Altman's only heads up, Brockman said on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, was a text from OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever a day before.


Investors like to back visionary founders. Some, like Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, have centered their investment theses around the idea. Not having equity in the company could have been perceived as reducing Altman's "skin in the game," so to speak. But it also meant that Altman, lacking those protections, was open to a boardroom coup.


At Uber, five major investors demanded Kalanick's departure immediately, including one of the company's largest shareholders Benchmark, after months of negative reports on workplace culture and other controversies. OpenAI, by contrast, hasn't seen a similar storyline emerge. Altman is a divisive figure, and many critics have worried about the impact OpenAI's ultimate goal — artificial general intelligence, or AGI — would have for humanity. 


OpenAI's small board lacks the experience that would be expected from a company of its size and importance. None of its largest backers, not even Microsoft, have board seats. Until Altman and Brockman's departure, it was composed of three outside directors and three OpenAI executives. 


Brockman wasn't involved in Altman's firing, meaning that every outside director and Sutskever would have had to all vote to fire Altman. With no allies on the six-person board, it was a mathematical impossibility that Altman could win. 

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