What Does the Latest UT Poll Mean?

The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project released a new statewide poll this week that will undoubtedly get a lot of attention. Its headline numbers are startling. Among likely voters, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Governor Greg Abbott 49%-48%, while Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50%-47% in the U.S. Senate race. It shows every statewide race well within the margin of error. The poll is yet another indication that Texas may be headed toward its most competitive statewide general election in decades. However, the results should be viewed with some caution.

Previous UT polls have not had a particularly impressive record as a predictor of recent Texas elections. In October 2024, their poll showed Trump leading by only 5 points, but he actually won by 14. In the primaries this year, their polling shows Crockett would easily best Talarico. To be fair, UT’s methodology has been evolving in a direction that is likely to improve their results. By how much, we will soon see.

But with that grain of salt in mind, there are some numbers in the poll which help explain those results. First, President Trump's job approval in Texas is now underwater. Forty-two percent approve of his performance, while 52% disapprove. Among voters UT classifies as independent, Trump's numbers are much worse: only 13% approve while 68% disapprove, a jaw-dropping 5-1 margin.

There is also a potentially significant enthusiasm gap. Seventy-two percent of Democrats say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in November, compared with 62% of Republicans. Among Democratic leaners, 65% are highly enthusiastic, compared with only 44% of Republican leaners. The direct question about likelihood of voting is even more striking. Seventy-five percent of Democrats say they are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 58% of Republicans.

UT may again be understating Republican strength by several points. However, the current RCP average has Abbott at only +2.2, and the Senate average has Talarico at +2.6. So, UT is clearly not an outlier.

But even if Abbott may actually be ahead by three or four points instead of behind by one, and Paxton may be roughly tied instead of three points behind, think about what that means.

For most of the last 30 years, the only question in a Texas statewide election has not been whether the Republican would win, but by how much. A polling error of three or four points generally would not have mattered because Republicans had plenty of cushion.



That is no longer the case.

TCU purple anyone?

We will be discussing this cliffhanger of an election with our expert political panel at the Readers Conference on October 24. Register today!