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Good Monday morning!
After a big gap and run higher Friday morning, sellers entered back in the fray and the markets closed well of of the intraday highs of 5862 in the S&P and settled at 5808. A decent break indeed and it looked like we might be in for a short term top, but once again futures are right back up this morning.
Quick note.....It has certainly been a challenging market lately and the continued call is to stay fluid!! The false starts and stops have been almost countless recently, so as I've mentioned many times in the past few weeks, don't fall in love with your trade. One day your longs look like they are going to the moon, then a huge liquidation break kicks in and you sell your longs and get short, now feeling "This is it! The top is in!" Only to find the very next morning the markets have reversed course yet again!!! That is what we need to expect at the current time and it's something we need to pay attention to today and this entire week. I say that because we have over 600 companies reporting their earnings plus a ton of economic data coming our way!!!
As mentioned, futures are actually higher...again....as usual....and overnight inventory is 100% net long. We do not have a true gap... yet, meaning outside of Friday's high, but there us still plenty of time for that to happen before the opening bell! In the profile pic and key levels below, please pay attention to the levels listed. Any price action above 1/2 back and the single prints tells us buyers are right back in the picture so look for upper targets. Any move back below 5868 could have price heading towards the POC (Point of Control) @ 5845.25. Futures are trading @ 5879 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: And that did not last long either....the new VPOC recently added above @ 5892.50 was taken out as Friday's high was 5900.75! We mentioned earlier in the morning it could be in play....and it was! We still have 25 below current price and the closest one is 5788.50, most likely not in play today.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5870 - 5880
Key Levels: 5868 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5830 - 5820
/NQ upside target is: 20,650 - 20,680
Key Level: 20,584 1/2 Back
downside target is : 20,400 - 20,360
/RTY upside target is: 2240 - 2245
downside target is: 2210 - 2200
Economic Data:
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey @10:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
5-Yr Note Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Demand $5800 then above at $5840-30 with Supply above at $5900-5915
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5840 after a pullback below $5830 looking to play SHORT targeting $5805 then at $5790
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5840 after a break and retest above $5850-55 playing LONG targeting $5880 -$5900
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SPY - Demand from Wednesday at $574 Supply above at $579 then $581-582 ( previous demand )
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $579 after a break and retest above $580 looking to play LONG targeting $581 then $582
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $579 after a retest from $578 where Demand would flip back to Supply targeting $576 then $575
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/NQ - Key Demand at $20250 then at $2350-400 with at Supply $20600-20550
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $2350 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $20260 targeting $20400 then $20425
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $20350 and holding looking to play short targeting $20280 then $20200
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QQQ - Key Demand at $489-490 with Supply above at $497-496
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $489 looking to play long from a break and retest at $490 targeting $492 then $494
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $489 after a break and retest below $488 looking to play short targeting $487 then $486
Also watching …
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NVDA Key Demand $139-140 with Supply above at $144 HOD
Bearish
Sellers trapped below $140 after a break and retest from $139 looking to play short targeting $137 then $136
Bullish
Buyers trapped above $140 after a break and retest from $140 looking to play long targeting $142 then new HOD
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AMD Key Gap UP Friday at $153 with Supply above at $156
Bearish
- Buyers trapped below $153 looking to play a Short after a pullback below the GAP targeting $151 then $150
Bullish
- Buyers trapped above $153 playing a break and retest from $154 Long targeting $155 then $156
Have a great day!
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