Retail Beat

updates for retailers + key business partners

September 15, 2025

Last Friday Minnesota Retailers staff met with Rep. David Gottfried (middle) at our office. Rep. Gottfried --elected this past January--sat down with us to talk about the 2026 legislative session and issues impacting retailers.

August CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Data Shows Increased Sales Even as Inflation Impacts Growth

Retail spending continued to grow in August as consumers stocked up on school supplies and tried to beat rising tariffs that could be beginning to affect prices, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation.

“Consumer spending rose again in August, fueled by a still-stable consumer and a robust back-to-school shopping season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Spending was supported by lower fuel costs, tax-free holidays and consumers buying products before tariff increases take effect. We may be seeing inflationary impacts from tariffs since recent data shows price increases in commodity goods. Even with weaker job growth than many expected, employment remains stable and at a high level, giving consumers the ability to spend thoughtfully on household priorities. Nonetheless, consumers are preserving spending power by cutting back on less-essential services.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.5% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 6.81% unadjusted year over year in August, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 1.45% month over month and 5.89% year over year in July.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was up 0.26% month over month in August and up 6.67% year over year. That compared with increases of 1.55% month over month and 5.93% year over year in July.

Total sales were up 5.08% year over year for the first eight months of the year and core sales were up 5.27%.

Make Plans To Attend Retail Rally Featuring Tamara Prato

Retail Rally is our popular once a year event where Minnesota retailers and their key business partners come together to gather, learn and celebrate the incredible impact of retail across our state.

Wednesday, October 8, 2:00 – 4:00 p.m.

Brookview Golden Valley

This year’s program features two highlights you won’t want to miss:

Minnesota’s Retail Champion Awards

Every year, we shine a spotlight on the individuals and organizations that make Minnesota’s retail community strong. From innovative stores to outstanding community partners, the Minnesota's Retail Champion awards recognize those who go above and beyond to strengthen our state’s retail landscape. Come celebrate their achievements and get inspired by their stories.

Headliner: Tamara Prato — *Driving Retail Growth: People, Planning, and Your Best Customers*

What makes a retail business more valuable—not just today, but for the long haul? Business Growth Advisor Tamara Prato will share practical, no-nonsense strategies you can put into play right away.

Here’s what you’ll take home:

Leadership That Lasts — Why investing in your team’s skills drives lasting business value.
Plan for Success — How to use the Vision Traction Organizer (VTO) from EOS to clarify goals and track progress.
Know Your Customer — Tools to define your ideal clients and sharpen your marketing strategy.

Plus, you’ll leave with free EOS tools to decide what fits your business best. With over 25 years of leadership, brand-building, and coaching experience, Tamara’s approach is simple, real, and designed for retailers of every size.

Complimentary Registration Available

In celebration of Labor Day and Minnesota’s retail community, we’re offering complimentary registration this week.

LEARN MORE

Ready To Take The Leap? Mall of America Hosts Entrepreneur Workshop For Small Business Owners September 17

If you’re an entrepreneur or small business owner don’t miss Entrepreneurial LEAP LIVE! — a dynamic, 60-minute workshop at Mall of America designed to help you grow your business with clarity and confidence.

Wednesday, September 17, 10:00 a.m. – 11:30 a.m.

Mall of America®

SPECIAL PRICING OFFER!

As a guest of Minnesota Retailers, you receive special pricing of just $15 (plus service fees). Use the Code MNRAGUEST when purchasing tickets online. This offer ends at 10:00 p.m on Sunday, September 14.

Get your tickets here.

Led by serial entrepreneur and E-Leap Academy alum Kyle Mealy, this workshop gives you practical tools and a proven framework to beat the odds and build the business—and life—you’ve envisioned.

What You’ll Learn:

The 8 Critical Mistakes early-stage entrepreneurs must avoid
The 8 Must-Do’s to build a strong foundation for growth
The 9 Stages of Building a Business—and how to navigate each one

Attendees receive a workbook and a free copy of Entrepreneurial LEAP by Gino Wickman, bestselling author of Traction and creator of EOS®. One lucky participant will win free registration to the full Entrepreneurial LEAP Academy ($3,000 value). Plus, you’ll have a chance to meet Mall of America® Specialty Leasing Agents and enjoy light bites and refreshments.

This one’s built for builders. If you're looking to grow, this event’s for you!

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Coming Soon - The Strategic Leaders Roadmap: Navigating the Changing Business Climate

Leaders have to make strategic decisions in the middle of chaos, uncertainty, crises, and constant changes. Inflation pressures, labor shortages, shifting global trade policies, and political uncertainty are complicating the path forward, and business as usual just isn’t good enough.

In this high-energy, high-content program on October 14 (8:30 - 11:30 a.m.), Dr. Mary Kelly combines business information with leadership strategies in a session designed to elevate decision-making, enhance accountability, and equip leaders to drive profitable results. This is a smart, actionable leadership roadmap for thriving in any economy.

Mary kicks off with current business insights—real-time data decoded for real-world impact—then transitions into a leadership strategy session where attendees delve deeper into how to take better control of their changing environments, refocus priorities, and execute their action plans.

Whether you lead a team of five or five hundred, this program will change how you navigate the next 12-18 months with courage, confidence, and clarity.

Key Takeaways:

Translate market shifts into actionable strategic decisions
Strengthen your leadership and recognize blindspots before they derail your growth
Align leadership strategy with emerging business trends
Build and execute a roadmap that drives performance and sustainable growth
Learn Mary’s 6 Stages to lead with confidence through disruption

Use VIP code "1025MRA" for a discounted $25 ticket and register at https://breakfastleaders.com.

LEARN MORE

The Latest On Tariffs: U.S. Supreme Court To Weigh Tariff Authority

Last week the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to fast-track the administration’s appeal of lower court rulings striking down President Trump’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The justices consolidated two key cases—V.O.S. Selections v. Trump and Learning Resources v. Trump—both of which found the tariffs unlawful.

The Court has set an expedited briefing schedule, with filings due throughout September and October, and oral arguments scheduled for the first week of November. A decision in this high-stakes case will determine the scope of presidential authority to impose tariffs and could have significant implications for retailers and suppliers.

Deloitte: Holiday Sales Growth To Slow; E-Commerce To Stay Strong

From Chain Store Age, Marianne Wilson, September 10, 2025

As economic uncertainty continues to weigh on consumers, holiday sales in the United States are expected to grow at their slowest rate since the pandemic.

That’s according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast, which said that sales are likely to increase between 2.9% and 3.4%, totaling $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion during the upcoming holiday season (November 2025 to January 2026). By comparison, holidays sales in the year-ago period increased 4.2%, to $1.57 trillion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

E-commerce is expected to grow at a “healthy” pace of between 7% and 9% year over year during the 2025–2026 holiday season, totaling between $305 billion and $310.7 billion, according to Deloitte. E-commerce sales in the year-ago period (seasonally adjusted and excluding gasoline stations, motor vehicles and parts dealers, and food services) grew 8.0% totaling an estimated $285 billion.

“Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power,” said Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader. “Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses."

Deloitte anticipates that disposable personal income will grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season. The global accounting and advisory firm said that it has found disposable income growth to be a sound predictor of retail and e-commerce sales.

“Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending," said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. "While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season."

Credit and Debit Card ‘Swipe’ Fees Totaled $236 Billion In 2024, Over One-Quarter Higher Than Previously Reported

From the Merchants Payments Coalition, September 9, 2025

The Merchants Payments Coalition today highlighted a report by payments consulting firm CMSPI showing “swipe” fees big banks and card networks charge merchants to process credit and debit card transactions totaled over $236 billion last year, more than 25% higher than other estimates.

“These numbers show just how broken the payments market really is and that swipe fees are an even larger burden on small businesses and consumers than we knew previously,” MPC Executive Committee member and FMI — the Food Industry Association Chief Public Policy Officer Jennifer Hatcher said. “With Visa and Mastercard setting prices where all banks charge the same swipe fees, the impact of swipe fees keeps going up. These outrageous fees drive up the price of almost everything consumers buy, and addressing them has been identified as one clear action that can be taken to take costs out of the economy and pressure off of hardworking American families.”

The new State of the Industry Report from CMSPI shows credit and debit card swipe fees totaled $236.4 billion in 2024. That compares with $187.2 billion reported this spring by the Nilson Report, a trade publication that follows the card industry and is the most widely quoted source of data on swipe fees.

CMSPI said the swipe fee rate for Visa and Mastercard credit cards, which dominate the market, averaged 2.91% of the transaction amount last year, compared with 2.35% reported by Nilson. Swipe fees on those cards alone accounted for $122.3 billion of the CMSPI total, compared with $111.2 billion reported by Nilson. That compares with the 1.7% profit of the supermarket industry in 2024.

While Nilson does not specify what swipe fee components are included in its numbers, CMSPI said its figures include interchange, which is the largest portion and goes to card-issuing banks; network fees, which go to card networks like Visa or Mastercard; and processing fees, which go either to a merchant’s “acquirer” bank or a third-party processor.

CMSPI’s $236.4 billion figure for 2024 is up from $222.3 billion in 2023, when Nilson reported $172 billion, and $206 billion in 2022, when Nilson reported $160.7 billion. The $14 billion increase from 2023 to 2024 reported by CMSPI amounted to 6.3% and was double the rate of inflation last year.

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