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Good Friday morning!
Well I think I am calling yesterday "The NVDA Top"! That lonely stock held up well but the rest of the market was met with strong selling and a huge liquidation break. Good things don't last forever!
Institutional traders took advantage of the NVDA euphoria as most stocks were bid up pre market but were met with huge waves of selling as things just got way too overbought and stretched, so profits were taken. The key to today will all be about whether or not the buyers come back in or do more sellers emerge as they don't want to lose anymore unrealized gains?!?!
Futures are recovering a bit this morning as we are up across the board but the key levels will be in the profile pic below. You can see there was a look above and fail at the open yesterday outside of the large four day balance area, but then as sellers piled on, the bottom of the balance area was lost and now unless traders get price back up into the range above 5317, then this is definitely a tipping point from bullish to bearish so plan your trades accordingly! This means tighten stops on longs and look for downside short opportunities.
One last thing, I really hope you used our strategy yesterday morning because when there is a large gap with overnight inventory net long, the odds favor lower! It played out very well!!! As discussed yesterday morning....
"The one strategy we use is watching the overnight high and the one minute low for a fade or short lower. When the market opens, if price takes out the overnight high, currently at 5368.25, then falls back below it, then that is the short with a stop above the overnight high. If price does not take out the overnight high and then takes out the 1 minute low, then that is the short with the stop above the 1 minute high. Watch closely for continuation and move stop to breakeven as soon as possible if the market does follow through and heads lower. Trail stops on the way down. If there is a bigger move lower, then target gap fill to yesterdays high and then the POC!"
SBUX: Took some heat yesterday but still holding.
AMD Still holding and stop is below yesterdays low.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's added yesterday. We still have 22 VPOC's below current price levels and the closest VPOC @ 5268.75 is certainly in play today!
**Reminder: Markets are closed Monday for the Memorial Day holiday so enjoy yourselves!!!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5320 - 5325
Key Levels: 5317 Top of single prints and bottom of balance
downside target is: 5260 - 5255
/NQ upside target is: 18.825 - 18,850
Key Level: 18,800 Top of single prints and 1/2 back
downside target is : 18,575 - 18,550
/RTY upside target is: 2070- 2065
downside target is: 2035 - 2025
Economic Data:
Durable Goods @ 8:30 AM EST
Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 AM EST
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key demand at $5310/5315 with Supply above at $5370 -64
1. Sellers trapped above $5310 I want to be long, a break and retest
targeting $5320 then $5333
SPY - Key Demand $524-525 with Supply above at
1. Sell off at the open where buyers are trapped above $529 looking to play
long targeting $533. If price breaks under $527 and holds under $528
after a pullback I will look to play short targeting $524
SPX Key Demand at $5280 - 5295 with Supply at $5325
1. Sellers trapped after a bounce above $5300 looking to play long target
$5315
1. A breakdown below $5280 and retest I will look to play short targeting
$5270 then $5257
/NQ Key Demand at $18425-60 and $19023-00 with Supply flipped to demand at recent HOD $18800
1. Sellers trapped above $18800 looking to play long off a break and retest
targeting HOD
QQQ Key Demand at $450 and $445
1. Sellers trapped about $450 looking to parlay a break and retest from $451
targeting $455 then new HOD
2. I can not be looking to play long without a breakdown below $440
As ALWAYS, have your stops & targets in place!!!
Have a great trading day and a great Memorial Day weekend!
See you on Tuesday morning!
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