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PDF | Research | Week of June 24 2024

Quote of the Week

“The taking of capital because you can take it and then investing it poorly is a quick way to destroy a business.”

– Marc Rowan, CEO, Apollo.

 
 

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Where We Are (Third of a Series)

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Fast and Furious (Part One of Two)

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This week we attended the 40th annual conference of the Florida Public Pension Trustees Association in Orlando. Attendees included municipal pension board members, plan sponsors and administrators. In Monday's keynote presentation we highlighted various macroeconomic factors investors face today. 


While researching for our talk, we came across this interesting fact (tip of the hat to Van Hesser’s Three Things in Credit): “42% of the companies in the Russell 2000 index are unprofitable.” We had to rewind the tape to make sure we hadn’t misheard. Yup, almost half of the smaller companies from the broader Russell index are losing money. 


Now it’s fair to ask whether some of these companies are investing for growth, hence cash flow negative, or expenses are simply outpacing revenues. And it would be helpful to compare today’s measure with the last five years to see if higher rates could be the culprit...

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Chart of the Week

Feeling and Dealing

Consumers gloomy, but keep pushing stock prices higher.

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Source: Bloomberg, The Conference Board


(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Ryan Brown / PitchBook LCD

PDI Picks

The return of the mid-market

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With the focus having been on larger deals last year, 2024 has seen more typical private debt activity make a comeback.

After a rocky two years, mid-market M&A activity looks set to finally rebound and lenders are reporting a bullish first half of the year. With interest rates hopefully on the way down, deal volumes picking up, syndicated loan volumes rising and a wall of dry powder waiting to be deployed, the deal pipeline looks likely to warm up...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Leveraged borrowers continue to tap lenders

for refinancings: BMC Software among largest credits to return

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In the absence of meaningful new money loans calendar, a steady stream of refinancings have kept arrangers of leveraged loans busy in the first 6 months of 2024...

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Contact: Maria Dikeos / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

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The share of carveouts in the deal landscape surged in Q1, representing 15.5% of the overall deal mix—the highest level since Q2 2013...

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Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Fitch U.S. MM CLO Spotlight – May 2024

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Defaults and Deferring Exposure Flat

Twenty-five CLOs had exposure to at least one defaulted or deferring issuer at the end of May 2024. Average defaulted and deferring exposure across middle market (MM) CLOs remained at 0.7%...

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Contact: Winnie Fong / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Average New-Issue Clearing Spreads (Single B) and Covenant Terms for All First-Lien

Institutional Loans

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 10.5% as of 21 June, down from the highest level in last 12 months of 11.7% in October 2023) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani/ Debtwire 

Private Debt Intelligence

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Mega funds exert dominance in US buyouts

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Read Preqin’s ‘Buyouts in North America: A Preqin Primer‘.


The average size of US-focused buyout funds more than doubled from 2021 to 2023 to $750.7mn (aggregate $95.3bn), driven by a big increase in the very largest funds, according to Preqin data...

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Contact: Grant Murgatroyd/ Preqin

June Update: Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.