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PDF | Research | Week of July 1 2024

Quote of the Week

“They’re watching a slowdown and at some point, you’re going to want to stop the slowdown from slowing down further.”

– Jonathan Pingle, chief US economist, UBS.

 
 

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Where We Are (Last of a Series)

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Fast and Furious (Second of Two Parts)

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The 60/40 allocation model for investing has taken some hits since the Fed began raising rates over two years ago. 2022 saw a sea of red ink for liquid strategies – both the “60” and the “40” – with improved returns last year and so far in 2024. 


Sophisticated institutional investors long ago adopted the modified 60/40 which includes an allocation for alternatives. Is it 40/40/20? Every situation is different. But illiquid assets now have a permanent place in many portfolios thanks to their valuation and price stability through a variety of economic and market cycles. 


Private credit has become a core to an alts allocation. When rates rise, it’s a natural hedge to fixed income exposure. When rates fall, it retains a consistent premium to public credit. Amid rate volatility, it produces a steady income stream with minimal disruption from headline risks...

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Chart of the Week

Lower Risk, Higher Yield

Among a basket of traded credit strategies, leveraged loans are showing well.

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Source: The Daily Shot


(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Ryan Brown / PitchBook LCD

PDI Picks

The rise of the periphery

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Specialty finance is grabbing the limelight by offering strong returns, downside protection and diversification.

With many investors having reached a level of exposure to direct lending that they are comfortable with, it’s natural that they should then begin casting around for more esoteric opportunities. One area claiming attention is specialty finance: described by investment management giant PIMCO as “the $20 trillion next frontier of private credit”...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Leveraged loan and HY bond volume surge in 2Q24 amid refinancing activity 

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Leveraged issuers raised over US$484bn via the loan and high yield bond markets in 2Q24, the strongest quarterly results since 1Q21...

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Contact: Maria Dikeos / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

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The share of carveouts in the deal landscape surged in Q1, representing 15.5% of the overall deal mix—the highest level since Q2 2013...

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Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Fitch U.S. MM CLO Spotlight – May 2024

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‘CCC’ Exposure Marginally Up

Exposure to assets with Fitch IDRs or credit opinions of ‘CCC+’ or below, excluding nonrated assets, increased by 20 bps to 18.6%, compared to last month and 3.5% higher than a year ago...

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Contact: Winnie Fong / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Average Free-and-Clear as a Multiple of Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

CLOs fuelling demand for paper,

driving repricing deals

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The driving force behind such an explosion in repricing deals is demand for new paper, which is currently outstripping the offer...

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Contact: Elena Shutova/ Debtwire 

Private Debt Intelligence

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India overtakes China in private debt AUM

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Read more in Preqin’s Insights+ Report: Alternatives in APAC 2024


Private debt in APAC has nearly doubled in the five years leading to September 2023. growing from $62.5bn in AUM to $123.5bn...

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Contact: William Bennett-Lynch/ Preqin

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.