Rhinebeck and Red Hook
Addressing Rhinebeck and Red Hook has been jingling around in my mind for a while. What launched this thought process was a visit to my favorite smoothie shop in Red Hook one Saturday afternoon for a nutritious recharge pitstop before the shutdown last March. I stared at the "closed" sign in disbelief. I live in Rhinebeck where Saturday's are anything but closed. When I stopped back in on a weekday and asked about this "closed situation", the then owner's response: "Kids have games on Saturdays, everyone is too busy to stop in." In that moment I questioned how two towns each with their own village no more than five miles from each other's center could be so different. At the time, I often viewed Red Hook as Rhinebeck's "laid back cousin." While I don't see Rhinebeck giving up it's "upstate bustle" crown anytime soon, I have to say the gap between the two does seem to have lessened from a residence perspective as I have found more buyers considering both towns more often over the past year than one versus the other. That smoothie shop now has a new owner (Annie, she's awesome) with a new name (Bliss). They are now open on Saturday's and from what I can tell stay quite busy.
Rhinebeck and Red Hook school districts both rate highly with Rhinebeck in fact hitting top of the high school list in Hudson Valley Magazine's March, 2021 issue. School sizes are much different between the districts with Red Hook nearly double Rhinebeck. I got curious when I was speaking with the superintendents' offices in each school for latest student population numbers and asked about January, 2020 versus January, 2021 with full expectation they would have increased over the past year considering the influx into both towns. No! In fact, the opposite! In January, 2020 Red Hook actually had 85 more students (with a total student population of 1826) than January 2021. Rhinebeck also had more students enrolled in January, 2020, but only by 2 (947 total in January, 2020.)
Rhinebeck is generally more contained than Red Hook with taxes, but at last check it wasn't a huge gap. Red Hook is the only town in Dutchess County to have a "conservation" transfer tax to buyers at closing of 2%.
Rhinebeck and Red Hook coming into Spring Market, 2021
Town of Rhinebeck
While overall sales in the Town of Rhinebeck are already up 450% January 1, 2021-March 15, 2021 versus same period 2020 (which included the time period right up to the March, 2020 shutdown), certain price points are indicating unfavorable absorption rates at this time per the market momentum reports I produce with source Mid-Hudson MLS.
Early data just prior to Spring Market can be a bit misleading as to how it will pan by year end. For example, the $350,000-$400,000 price range currently indicates a highly unfavorable 15 month absorption rate (how long a house will take to absorb back into the market). However, I expect this will likely be swift to resolve with sales as Spring Market heats up since this price point was a strong producer in 2020 with an increase of 125% in sales in 2020 over 2019 and 2.7 month year end absorption rate, which is highly favorable for a sellers market. The $700,000-$750,000 price point is also currently showing an unfavorable absorption rate of 12 months which I also expect to see resolve as Spring Market presses forward as this was another strong price point for 2020 with a 400% increase in sales 2020 versus 2019 and 2.4 month year end absorption rate.
While the $1,000,000+ price point realized 175% increase in sales January 1, 2020-December 31, 2020 versus same period 2019, the year end market momentum report also indicated 13.1 absorption rates. Important to note, higher end homes do tend to carry higher absorption rates due to a generally more limited pool of buyers in those price points.
That being said, a total of 11 homes sold in the $1,000,000+ price point 1/1/20-12/31/20. As of March 15, 2021, 7 homes sold between 1/1/2021-3/15/2021 and 4 went into contract during the same period. The current number of sold and contract listings are equal to the total amount sold in this price point in 2020 s the Town of Rhinebeck is poised to outdo itself in 2021 high end sales versus 2020 assuming more sales at the least during Spring Market. However, there are already 9 active listings on the market in the $1,000,000+ price point and Spring Market hasn't even kicked in yet. Current absorption rate in the $1,000,000+ price point is 15.4 months, already higher than 2020. The absorption rate will continue to climb as more listings come on the market in this price point if current active listings do not move into contract and sold status prior.
Village of Rhinebeck
The Village of Rhinebeck is already bustling along with an increase of 800% in sales January 1, 2021-March 15, 2021 versus 2020 with 9 listings already sold versus 1 in 2020 during the same three month period.
The Village of Rhinebeck has already surpassed it's lowest sale in the entire year of 2020 during the first few months of 2021. The lowest sale in the Village of Rhinebeck in 2020 was $195,750. The lowest sale January, 2021 to date in the Village of Rhinebeck is $375,000 with closing on February 26, 2021.
The Village of Rhinebeck had a total of 4 sales in the $1,000,000+ price point January 1, 2020-December 31, 2020. There were no sales in this price point 1/1/2020-3/15/2020. To date, two homes have closed in the $1,000,000+ price point 1/1/2021-3/15/2021 with two additional homes currently active. While the absorption rate is currently 12 months for $1,000,000+ in the Village of Rhinebeck, it appears by movement and more contained current active listings in the Village (2) than the Town (9), that the Village is currently poised for a more favorable absorption adjustment swifter than the Town so long as an abundance of new $1,000,000+ listings do not enter the market in the Village before current are absorbed back into the market.
Both the Town and Village of Rhinebeck currently continue to indicate saturation in the $1,000,000+ price point by their unfavorable absorption rates of 15.4 and 12 months, respectively. Should the current 9 active listings in the Town of Rhinebeck not move swiftly to contract and sold before additional listings enter in this price point, the saturation could further increase absorption rates and take that much longer to sell in the $1,000,000+ price point.
Town of Red Hook
There is less to be gleaned from the Town of Red Hook market momentum reports as of the January 1, 2021-March 15, 2021 analysis. The $0-$300,000 price range was down 50% in inventory versus the same period in 2020. The Town of Red Hook is showing strength in the $300,000-$500,000 price points, pacing particularly solid in $300,000-$450,000 range. The $500,000-$550,000 range is showing signs for potential saturation. The $800,000-1,000,000 range is showing increased activity in active, contract and sold versus 2020. With only one home listed $1,000,000+, the Town of Red Hook currently does not wave the high end saturation red flag.
Village of Red Hook
While down 50% in units sold in the January 1-March 15, 2021 timeframe versus same period 2020, $0-$350,000 price range is showing the most activity in active, contract and sold out off all price points in the Village. There has not been enough activity during these first months of 2021 for conclusive analysis or projections for the Village of Red Hook.
