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Good Monday morning!
We hope you all had a great three-day weekend and a very Happy Easter. Now back to the business at hand.
Bears are stalking again. Futures are lower, and we are looking at a true gap below Thursday's range on the back of Fed fears and tariffs. Price has already explored lower targets and we are getting a lift off of those levels, so my bias is long for today and I am ultimately looking for a move higher.
Obviously, I do not have a crystal ball and I am not guaranteeing this, but with overnight inventory which is 100% net short and a true gap lower, these data points set my narrative for today. That being said, I know exactly what I'll be looking for to set my trades, long or short. Asian and European traders are back at it, selling once again, so today will all be about domestic traders here in the U.S. and whether or not they agree with our foreign counterparts?!!
The playbook for me is this. If price can get back above overnight 1/2 back at 5273, then over 5285, which is Thursday's low, then I will be looking for the POC (Point of Control) at 5325, then upper targets.
Now, if sellers keep price below 5273, then the edge will remain with the bears and lower targets and overnight lows could be re-tested. If this happens once the opening bell rings, then no long trades. We must stay fluid! Also, if tempo and momentum increase further and we take out overnight lows and lower targets again, then the next key range would be 5200-5175. Futures are trading at 5256 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added Thursday. We still have 8 above and 18 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5360 - 5380
Key Level: 5285 Prior Low and 5273 ON 1/2 Back then 5325
downside target is: 5255 - 5235 then 5200 - 5175
/NQ upside target is: 18,650 - 18,700
Key Level: 18,230 ON 1/2 Back then 18,261 Prior Low
downside target is : 18,125 - 18,075
/RTY upside target is: 1900 - 1910
downside target is: 1860 - 1845
Economic Data: Very light day
Leading Indicators @ 10:00 AM EST
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5370-80 with Supply at $5540-28
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5350 looking to play a break and retest above $5340 long targeting $5475 then $5500s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5350 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5340 targeting $5315 then a break down into $5200s
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SPY Key demand at then at $533-534 with Supply above at $544-43
Bullish Sellers trapped above $544 looking to play a break and retest from $545 long targeting $547 then a breakout mid high $548ss
Bearish Buyers trapped below $532 after a break and retest below $531 targeting $528s then a breakdown into $527s
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/NQ Key demand at $18600 with Supply above at $19256-19300
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19100 looking to play a break and retest above $19150 long targeting $19300s then a breakout back into low $19400’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $18700 looking to play short from below $18655 targeting a breakdown $18500s then low mid $18400s
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QQQ Key Demand at $450 -449 with Supply at $466-468
Bullish Sellers trapped above $449 looking to play a break and retest from $450 targeting $452 then a breakout into low mid $454s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $449 looking to play a break and retest short from $448 targeting $447 then $446s
Have a great day!!
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