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What will it take to make housing affordable again?

According to a new Zillow analysis, it would require a 24.7% drop in home values.

Increased home values and rising rates create a mortgage affordability crisis for many would-be buyers. And economists don’t expect this to change anytime soon.

MORTGAGE AFFORDABILITY

The monthly mortgage payment on a typical U.S. home is $1,850, which is a 75.5% increase compared to a year ago. When talking money, buyers pay about $800 more per month than those who bought when mortgage rates were in the 3-4% range.

While home values have fallen slightly since a peak in June, volatile mortgage rates mean monthly mortgage payments are becoming more and more expensive. 

But how far off are monthly payments compared to pre-pandemic norms?

To answer that, let’s look at mortgage affordability—or the share of income a median household needs to spend on a monthly mortgage payment. The average income needed for mortgage payments from 2005-2021 was 22.8%. With the financial burden threshold for mortgage payments being 30%, homeownership was relatively affordable pre-pandemic.
But now, the current mortgage affordability is higher than the financial burden threshold—at 30.2%. This number is even higher for first-time home buyers, at 36.8%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®’ second-quarter report.

The next several years appear set up for affordability to be a major challenge for home buyers. Inventory remains tight, real income growth is dismal, mortgage rates show no signs of dropping, and there is plenty of pent-up demand ready to bid prices back up if they reach a level would-be buyers can once again afford.
Nicole Bachaud
Senior Economist, Zillow

HOW FAR ARE MARKETS FROM THE 22.8% NORM?...


Posted by BAM Staff | Oct 21, 2022 | Housing Market, RE News
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