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Good morning and Happy Thursday!
Well it took a little while to get started but the game plan laid out yesterday worked out quite well. The bulls emerged right from the opening bell however there was some initial resistance and selling at that quadruple top mentioned yesterday. Some key things I noticed however were that the pullbacks were bought and the downside levels were never breached in the /ES (both overnight lows and prior days 1/2 back were NOT taken out) and only briefly in the /NQ's (look below and fail at the overnight low only...price didn't get close to 1/2 back). *By the way, there was a news headline that came out yesterday morning around 9:44 AM EST which caused a very sudden and sharp liquidation break that said...."Fitch Analyst-The shift to reduction in US fiscal deficits unlikely in near term due to the political environment"
That told me that no stronger sellers were present. It was only a headline "rug pull". Buyers remained committed and once the 4804 level was taken out (middle pink line) our upper targets were eventually hit!! We also took out some VPOC's above. We now have 12 below us in the /ES. This was from yesterday as a reminder.....(and by the way all the MC issues are archived on our website under the Morning Color Tab!)
"Please look at the market profile picture below. I have marked off some very key areas and they coincide with the targets listed here this morning. If we remain in balance, it is more of a "sit on hands" day. If we start taking out the 4 recent highs (regular trading and overnight sessions and is marked by the middle pink line) then look for upper targets. If we take out the overnight low and yesterdays 1/2 back @ 4785.75, then look for lower targets! Its that simple."
Futures are higher this morning with overnight inventory almost 100% net long again and we are inside prior days trading range for the moment. Please note that yesterdays move took us "out of balance" for now and is awaiting important information....CPI @ 8:30 AM EST!!!
Please look at profile picture below as key and relevant targets are marked. Also please be aware that the futures tend to go crazy when data like the CPI (and ISM Manufacturing) come out....so stay frosty!
/ES upside target is: 4840-45
downside target is: 4804-4805 then possibly 4795-90
/NQ upside target is: 17,020-030
downside target is: 16,892 then 16,864 then possibly 16,835-825
/RTY upside target is: 2000-04
downside target is 1964-60
Economic Data Today:
*PAY ATTENTION - RED STAR EVENT AHEAD
CPI (Consumer Price Index) @ 8:30 AM EST ** Red Star Event
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM EST
Natural Gas Inventories @ 10:30 AM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Consolidating inside Supply at $4842 -4830 with Demand below that $4785-4795
- Selling at the open with a price holding above $4770 I want to look long.
- Buying at the open with price failing to make a new HOD after pulling back
holding below $4840 I will look to play short targeting above Demands $4800
SPY - Overnight Supply flipped to at $476 making a new HOD $478.67.
- If price can hold above $474 I want to play long after a sell of at the open with
bulls defending $473 playing long targeting $475 first then $476 supply zone
- Selling with price below $473 and holding I will look short targeting $471
- Small sell off at the open with price holding above $476 I will look to play long
where Supply flips to demand targeting a new HOD $478.70
SPX - Consolidating inside supply at $4785-4795 with support below and $4770 then
demand below that at $4760-4750. As long as price remains above Demand I want to
play long targeting $4777 first then $4784. Below that i will look to play short at $4747
/NQ - Consolidating inside Supply at $17000-17050 with demand at $16850-800. If we
break below key demand I will look to play short targeting $16760.
- If price $16850 I will look to play long targeting $16900 then $16925
QQQ - Supply flipped to Demand over night at $407-$408. If price holds above , no way
I can short as I will long to play long making a new HOD at $413. A failed rally to make
a HOD on a pull back I will look to play short on a break and retest target $406 Demand.
AMD - Gap up over night at $149 with supply and HOD at $151 -150 . If the price can
sell off but hold above $148 I will look to play long making a new HOD.
- Price below $145 leaves more room to downside at $141
TSLA - Gap up into supply overnight at $235 , next area of supply isn't until $240. If
price can hold above $233 I would like to play long targeting $238 first then Supply
- Strong sell off into Demand at $231 making new LOD with no follow through to
the down side and I will look to play long. If price pulls back after sell of and fails
to break $231 I will look to play short where demand can flip to Supply
META - Gap Up over night making a new HOD , previous Demand at $358
NVDA - Gap up through Supply making new HOD at $549.99. Demand below that
isn't until $539 then below that at $534. Only way I can short is , price below Demand
Have a great trading day.
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