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Good Wednesday morning!
And there it is! Literally overnight the tone and trend of the market has changed and all it took was a dock worker strike from the ILA (International Longshoremen's Association) and heightened tensions and war efforts between Iran and Israel! And I don't say that lightly. These are two very significant developments and so far the markets have taken them rather well in my opinion. Yes all markets were down yesterday, however they could have been down far worse!
If the buyers don't step up and support this market today, then I feel we could be in for more downside. And today the key levels in the S&P futures are 5771, which is 1/2 back from yesterday, and 5759.75 which is the POC!
IF price stays below these levels then it is only a matter of time until more sellers show up as fear and anxiety of the above mentioned issues will build and uncertainty also builds, and the one thing traders and investors hate most is uncertainty!! Now if buyers push prices back above the two key levels above then look for upper targets!
Just like we mentioned yesterday, the key lines in the sand are of the utmost importance!!! As I said yesterday morning:
"As far as I'm concerned at this time, the bulls are still in control as we are in a very large balance area and today there is an extremely key line in the sand will be 5797 which you will see why below! As you look at the key levels and profile pic, 5797 is the break out of balance but also the bottom of the spike and the current overnight low. Any price action that stays above this level will be edge to the bulls. Any break lower we will look for 1/2 back and POC.
Well unbeknownst to me, I did not know ahead of time that the ILA was going to strike and I also did not know Iran was going to launch almost 200 ballistic missiles into Israel!!!! HOWEVER I did know that IF 5797 was taken out to the downside then the play was short! There is no way anyone can know all the potential variables which can move the markets from day to day but we can pay attention to very important price points where either buyers or sellers will pick up their operations!
As always, please pay attention to the profile pic and key levels as they give us the guide and roadmap to the trading day scenarios and stay safe out there today!!
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added or taken out yesterday however that could change today!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5785 - 5805
Key Levels: 5771 1/2 Back & 5759.75 POC
downside target is: 5735 - 5725
/NQ upside target is: 20,160 - 20,180
Key Level: 20,042 1/2 Back and Value Area High
downside target is : 19,855 - 19,825
/RTY upside target is: 22642 - 2249
downside target is: 2200 - 2195
Economic Data:
MBA Mortgage Applications @ 7:00 AM ET
ADP Employment Report @ 8:15 AM ET
Beth Hammack Speaks @ 9:00 AM ET
Alberto Musalem Speaks @ 10:05 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
Michelle Bowman Speaks @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Thomas Barkin Speaks @ 12:15 PM ET
Treasury Buyback Results @ 2:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Demand flipped to Supply $5780-65 with Demand below at $5720-25 /Supply at $5820-30
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5780 after a pullback below $5770 looking to play SHORT targeting $5745 then $5733
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5785 after a break and retest above $5790 playing LONG targeting $5805
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SPY - Demand at $566 w / Supply at $575 and then at $572-573
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $570.50 after a break and retest from $571 looking to play LONG targeting $573 or a breakout and pullback above $573 playing a break and retest from $573 targeting $574 then $575
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $570 after a retest from $569 targeting $567 then $566
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/NQ - Key Demand at $19817- 19870 with Supply $20200 - 20
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $20200 looking to play long targeting $20300 then $20320
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $20220 and holding , looking to play short from $20200 then $20100
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QQQ - Key Demand flipped to Supply at $482 with Demand below that $477
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $482 looking to play long from a break and retest at $483 targeting $487 then $484 then $485.
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $482 after a break and retest below $481 looking to play short targeting $479 then $478
Also watching …
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AMD Key Demand at $158-159 then with Supply above at 161 -162
Bearish
Sellers trapped above $161 after a break and retest form $162 looking to play long targeting $163 then $165
Buyers trapped below $161 after a break and retest form $160 targeting $159 then $158
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NVDA Key Demand flipped to supply at 119 with Supply above at $122-121
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $119 after Supply flips to Demand playing a break and retest form $120 looking to target $121 then $123
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $119 after a break and retest from $118 looking to play short targeting $116 then $115
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AAPL Supply flipped to Demand at $230-231 with old Supply above at $235- 236
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $231 looking to play long from $232 targeting $234 then $235
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $230 looking to play short from $229 targeting $227 then $226
Have a great day!
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