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Good Wednesday morning!
Another win for the bulls yesterday....wait, didn't I just say that?!?! Well obviously the trend and market trajectory is still in tact so not much has changed. I stand by the fact that the market is overextended and is due for a pullback but there is an old saying in the stock market....
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!"
For those that have never heard that before, it essentially means that even though the market can get in stages of being overbought OR oversold, sometimes the time it takes to actually correct can take much longer than people think! Especially those people who have been shorting this market waiting for a pullback, but it just isn't happening!!! And that is where that saying comes from!!!!
Anyway, as a reminder, we have FED Chair Jerome Powell Speaking again today at 10:00 AM EST and tomorrow and Friday we get important CPI and PPI data and JPM, WFC and C all report earnings Friday morning so things could get wild over the next few days!
As always, please make note of the the key levels and profile picture below. Futures are higher this morning and overnight inventory is almost 100% net long. We are also testing yesterdays highs so that will be a key line in the sand......5646. If buyers break out above and hold then look for 5652 then 5660.
Any break back into yesterday's range, target 1/2 back @ 5637, then the Point of Control, Overnight Low and Value Area Low, all around 5632-5631. That is an important area to watch. IF that breaks today (and that's a BIG IF) then look for 5620-5615 next and then 5607 would be next stop below that.
SNOW: Still holding and selling that $150 Call option earlier this week has helped through this pullback. I am keeping a close eye on $136 to hold.
VPOC Update: We had another new VPOC added below price @5624.25 yesterday so we now have another new record of 25 VPOC's below current price levels. Absolutely amazing.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5640 - 5645
Key Level: 5632 - 5631 POC, Overnight Low and Value Area Low
downside target is: 5620 - 5615
/NQ upside target is: 20,735 - 20,760
Key Level: 20,685 - 20,675
downside target is : 20,655 - 20,635
RTY upside target is: 2063 - 2067
downside target is: 2032 - 2030
Economic Data: FED SPEAKERS AGAIN TODAY!
Jerome Powell @ 10:00 AM EST
Wholesale Inventories @ 10:00 AM EST
Crude Inventories @ 10:30 AM EST
Goolsbee & Bowman @ 2:30 PM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key Demand at $5630-25 then below at $5610 -5618/ Supply $5642-46
1. Sellers trapped above $5625 looking to play long targeting 5645 then HOD
2. A breakdown below $5620 and holding below $5621, falling to reclaim above $5622 and hold I will be looking to play short targeting $5600
SPY - Demand $553 -554 $ with Supply at $557 -56
1. Sellers trapped above $553 after sell off : I will look to play long off a break and retest from $554 targeting $556 then $557
2. A breakdown below $553 and holding after a pullback I will look to play short targeting $551 then $550 or if price fails to make a new HOD after taking out the old with Sellers defending key supply above at $557
SPX Key Demand at $5550-5555 with Supply above at $5590-85 HOD
1. A breakdown below $5550 and holding below after retest I will look to play short targeting $5530
2. A bounce above $5550 I will look to play long targeting $5565 then new HOD
/NQ Demand at $20615-20583 with Supply above at $20770-50 HOD
1. Sellers trapped above 20600 looking to play long targeting $20630 then HOD
2. I would only be interested short iif buyers are trapped below $20600 off a break and retest targeting $20580
QQQ Key Demand at $495-496 with Supply above at $500 HOD
1. Sellers trapped above $495 looking to play long off a break and retest
targeting $497 then 498
2. Buyers trapped below $494 after looking to play short after a break and retest targeting new LOD
AMZN Key Demand at $195-196 with Supply above at $201 HOD
1. Sellers trapped after a sell off above $196 looking to play long targeting $198 then $200.
2. Buyers fail to reclaim new HOD with a breakdown below $201 looking to play short targeting $198
AMD Key demand GAP at $172-171 with Supply above at $180
1. Looking to play a Gap and GO where price pullback above $173 and
bounces looking to play long targeting $174 then $176
2. I would only be interested if price fell and holds below $170 target $168 or after a new HOD is made with no follow through and pressure on buyers becomes apparent with the tape , T&S and volume to the downside.
Have a great day!
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