Dear Ralph,

Demand continues to keep home prices moving higher, but not at the trajectory we saw during COVID. On a positive note, people are moving into New Jersey rather than leaving, keeping the state's economic pillars stronger than ever. There are also positive signs with respect to the low mortgage default rates. August closed sales were higher year-over-year, but still not what had been the case 5 or more years ago.

Please feel free to email me at ralph@counsellorstitle.com if you have any questions or would like to follow up on any of this edition's articles.

Ralph Aponte

Founder & President

732.914.1400

Feel free to book a call to discover how we can serve your needs.



Case-Shiller Reports Another Home Price Index Record

by Anthony DiMaio

Northeast Real Estate Market Outpaces Other Regions

While the pace of home price growth is slowing, prices continue to climb across the U.S. The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index reveals that home prices rose by 5% year-over-year in July, marking the 14th consecutive month of record highs.

Northeast Leads the Way 

Among U.S. regions, the Northeast saw the highest price increases, with the New York metropolitan area recording an impressive 8.8% annual growth, leading the 20-city composite index. Other cities like Las Vegas and Los Angeles followed close behind. In contrast, Portland, Oregon posted the slowest growth at just 0.8%. The Midwest also reached an all-time high, while the South experienced the slowest growth, reflecting regional disparities in the real estate market.

National Home Price Trends 

Nationally, home values have been on an upward trend, with the 10-city composite index rising by 6.8% year-over-year and the 20-city composite index climbing 5.9%. However, the growth rate has decelerated, as June's national index posted a higher 5.5% annual growth compared to July's 5%. Despite this slowdown, the market remains strong.

Impact of Mortgage Rates 

Falling mortgage rates, spurred by the Federal Reserve's 50-basis point interest rate cut, have further fueled home prices. With mortgage rates reaching 24-month lows, the potential for continued growth remains as first-time buyers take advantage of lower borrowing costs. Experts suggest that further rate cuts could maintain momentum in the housing market.

However, even with rising prices, the rate of growth is slowing, which could provide some relief for potential buyers. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales in August fell by 2.5% compared to July, and were down 4.2% year-over-year.

New Jersey Real Estate Market Snapshot 

In New Jersey, the real estate market has been similarly affected by rising prices and fluctuating demand. Home prices in the state increased by 6.4% year-over-year in July 2024, and 6.3% in August. These figures slightly outpaced the national average. Areas like Jersey City and Hoboken have seen robust price growth due to their proximity to New York City and continued demand from buyers looking for suburban alternatives to the city. Additionally, South Jersey has benefited from increased interest in coastal properties, as more people seek vacation homes or investment properties.

Despite the price hikes, New Jersey's market is stabilizing, with increased housing inventory helping to moderate growth rates. Experts predict that price appreciation may slow down further in the coming months, especially as mortgage rates fluctuate and economic uncertainties impact buyer behavior.

Federal Reserve’s Desperate Cut 

The Federal Reserve’s rate cut in July was larger than anticipated, a move many analysts attribute to upcoming elections and economic concerns. This cut helped refinance applications surge by 20% in one week, with demand skyrocketing 175% compared to the same week in 2023, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Buyers are taking advantage of these lower rates to lock in financing amid uncertain market conditions.

Summary 

While U.S. home prices continue to rise, the rate of growth is beginning to slow. The Northeast, especially New York and New Jersey, remains a hot market, but factors like falling mortgage rates and increased inventory may signal more balanced conditions ahead. Potential buyers and investors should monitor trends closely as the market continues to evolve in the coming months.

The True State of Default

by: Anthony DiMaio

Not all news is written to inform; some news is just written to scare you and attract attention and eyeballs. A recent report stated that a housing price crash was in the future for three states. They referred to the report published by ATTOM on September 12th, 2024. Not only did they get the states wrong, but they also got the information completely wrong.

When it comes to the industry, don’t take anyone’s word for it; go to the source.

The August 2024 US foreclosure market report indicated that foreclosure filings fell by 5.3% from the prior month and are down 11% from 2023. Meanwhile, a report from a reputable news source is crying about how the housing price crash is looming in the future. All of this is due, they claim, to 50 counties that are at risk in a meltdown. Where they getting this word meltdown? And 50 counties in the country? Did you know that in the 50 states there are 3,143 counties and equivalents? So that doesn’t even equal 2%. But of course, this under 2% is going to trigger a meltdown? Not!

So let me just present some of the facts: according to the report, foreclosure activity has remained relatively steady in recent months, with foreclosure starts and completed foreclosures declining in August 2024.

■ As of the time of the report and the numbers for August, this preceded the recent reduction in the fed’s interest rate by a half a point. Many believe that the reduction in the fed rate is going to precipitate an uptick in buyers coming to market.

■ In the metropolitan statistical areas with populations exceeding 200,000, these are the numbers that were published by ATTOM:

Lakeland, FL (one in every 1,245 housing units with a foreclosure filing) 

Chico, CA (one in every 1,526 housing units) 

Columbia, SC (one in every 1,796 housing units) 

Bakersfield, CA (one in every 1,972 housing units) 

Las Vegas, NV (one in every 2,016 housing units)

■ According to the ATTOM report, lenders initiated foreclosure processes on 20,747 US properties in August 2024, which is down 5.1% from July and down 9.4% from 2023.

■ Those major metropolitan areas with a population greater than 1 million that had the greatest number of foreclosure starts in August 2024 included: New York, NY (1,332 foreclosure starts); Chicago, IL (1,069 foreclosure starts); Miami, FL (743 foreclosure starts); Los Angeles, CA (675 foreclosure starts); and Houston, TX (507 foreclosure starts).

■ Lenders repossessed 2,889 US properties through completed foreclosures (REOs) in August 2024, down 12.0% from July and down 13.9% from 2023.

# # #

A Nation on the Move

by: Anthony DiMaio

U.S. Migration Trends: A Look at Ocean and Monmouth Counties in New Jersey

Nationwide, 26% of homebuyers searched to move to a different metro area between June 2024 and August 2024, reflecting a trend of relocation that is reshaping the real estate landscape. While southern states such as Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina continue to attract the most interest, areas like Ocean and Monmouth Counties in New Jersey have seen a notable influx of buyers, particularly those leaving major urban areas like New York City.

Migration Patterns in Ocean and Monmouth Counties

Ocean and Monmouth Counties are becoming increasingly popular for homebuyers seeking coastal living with more space, affordability, and proximity to the Jersey Shore. Many buyers from New York, New Jersey’s urban centers, and even California are relocating to these areas, attracted by the suburban lifestyle, strong schools, and beach communities.

With more remote work opportunities, homebuyers are flocking to Ocean County's beach towns like Point Pleasant and Seaside Heights, and Monmouth County's coastal gems like Asbury Park and Red Bank. These areas offer a more relaxed pace of life while still maintaining easy access to major employment hubs like New York City and Philadelphia.

Outbound Migration: People Leaving Major Cities for New Jersey Suburbs

Between June 2024 and August 2024, the top five states people were leaving included California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Washington. These states saw higher levels of outbound migration, with residents seeking lower taxes, more affordable housing, and greater space. For many New Yorkers, the appeal of Monmouth and Ocean Counties lies in the affordable real estate compared to the skyrocketing prices of New York City, combined with the scenic appeal of coastal living.

Rising Popularity of Southern and Coastal Destinations

On a national level, places like Sacramento, Sarasota, Myrtle Beach, Orlando, and Cape Coral were the most searched-for destinations during this period. However, for buyers who want to remain near the Northeast, coastal New Jersey has emerged as a desirable alternative, offering a blend of suburban tranquility and beachside charm without moving too far from friends and family in New York or Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, cities like Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, D.C. continue to see higher numbers of outbound residents. Many of these departing residents are landing in New Jersey’s suburbs, including Ocean and Monmouth Counties, drawn by more space, family-friendly communities, and a better quality of life. The demand for properties in these counties has increased significantly, with some buyers moving to escape the hustle of urban living while still maintaining easy access to metropolitan areas for work or leisure.

Summary

Ocean and Monmouth Counties in New Jersey are experiencing a surge in interest as part of broader U.S. migration trends. As buyers from densely populated urban areas seek more space, affordability, and coastal living, these counties are becoming attractive alternatives. This shift is expected to continue as more people seek a balance between work-from-home flexibility and lifestyle preferences, making coastal New Jersey a hotspot for relocation.

About Counsellors Title Agency

We are an award-winning agency and one of New Jersey's leading title insurance businesses, based in Toms River. Counsellors is known for its team of knowledgeable service professionals recognized for its exceptional title, settlement and escrow services, for all 21 New Jersey counties. Its glitch-free signature service provides confidence to home buyers, sellers, and industry professionals. The knowledge base of its staff has processed over $17 billion in orders and established itself as a pillar of trust and benchmark of excellence within the real estate community.