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Good Monday morning!
After an almost 8% drop since the all-time highs in the S&P back on February 19, the sellers are right back at it this morning as futures are down across the board! Worries and fears of tariffs, a potential economic slowdown, and even the "R" word - recession - has been circulating around trade desks worldwide. Information is flying fast and traders and investors are trying to price all of this into their forecasts for equities and bonds!
In the SPX cash, a very important level at 5700 was hit on Friday, and for now, it was just an undercut, meaning it went below but closed back above at 5770. With futures down 79 points this morning, here we go again and this level will be VERY KEY moving forward!
At the opening bell, we will once again be below 5700, but if the buyers can defend 5700 and move back over it, then we could be seeing a short term bottom. HOWEVER, if the sellers persist, then the next target in S&P cash will be 5550-5560 range. I am NOT saying we get there today, but if we have a confirmed close below 5700 in the S&P cash, then the writing is on the wall for further downside.
Now looking at the markets under the microscope for today, we are still above Friday's low in the ES futures at 5673 and if buyers can defend that level, then look for VAL (Value Area Low) and then 1/2 back at 5732. Further buying would target the POC (Point of Control) at 5770 and then 5800 (possibly even 5840). Now if sellers persist and keep prices below 5720, then that would be continued edge to the bears. Any move below 5673 would target lower levels listed. Futures are trading at 5695 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's added or taken out Friday. We still have 6 above 27 below. 5661 is in play today.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5770 - 5780
Key Levels: 5720 VAL
downside target is: 5635 - 5625
/NQ upside target is: 20,400 - 20,425
Key Level: 19,975 VAL
downside target is : 19,925 - 19,900
/RTY upside target is: 2110 - 2115
downside target is: 2055 - 2045
Economic Data: Very Light Day
Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary) @11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5670-5700 with Supply above at $5850 then right above that at $5885-70
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5800 looking to play a break and retest from $5825 long targeting $5855 then $5900
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5700 looking to play short after a break and retest from $5690 targeting $5670 then a break down into $5650s
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SPY - Key demand at then at $565-567 with Supply at $575 above at $580-578
Bullish Sellers trapped above $575 looking to play a break and retest from $576 long targeting $577 then a breakout into $578s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $574 after a break and retest below $573 targeting $571 then a breakdown into $569s
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/NQ - Key demand at $19765-19800 with Supply above at $20300
Bullish Sellers trapped above $20300 looking to play a break and retest from $20320-25 long targeting $20400 then a breakout into $20500s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19800 looking to play short from $19750 targeting a breakdown into $19600 then $19500s
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QQQ - Key Demand at $480 then at $484 with Supply above $493-492
Bullish Sellers trapped above $485 looking to play a break and retest from $483 targeting $482 then a breakout into new LOD from pre market
Bearish Buyers trapped below $490 looking to play a break and retest short from $491 targeting $492 then $494
Have a great day!!
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