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With the exception of March 2023, Islamic State (IS) claimed operations around the world has continued to decline for the past few months. However, when comparing September 2023 to the previous year, the numbers show a striking difference.
IS took responsibility for 143 attacks in September 2022, which makes the current statistics seem miniscule. Nonetheless, TRAC contends that this evident 60% decrease over last year is a very intentional move by Islamic State leadership in an effort to project a false sense of security by showing a depreciation as an overall decline of group operations. While this continuous drop in claimed operations comes across as the 'downfall of the Islamic State,' the unclaimed operations tell a completely different story.
In September 2023, TRAC recorded 90 IS attacks that went unclaimed by IS Central Command. It is crucial to note that these attacks were carefully attributed to IS by TRAC based on the targets, tactics, and locations associated with IS areas of operations. If combined with claimed attacks, the total reaches up to 146 attacks, which is a 70% increase from August 2023.
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In particular, Islamic State activities in Syria transcended all other affiliates in terms of unclaimed operations. In the month of September, IS carried out about 54 attacks in different provinces of Syria, while only actually claiming responsibility for three of those attacks. This further reiterates TRAC’s assessment regarding the deliberate silence of the Islamic State to maintain operational security and does not speak to the group’s capability in the region.
Islamic State Central Command has a clear strategy in place that will lead to the eventual establishment of Caliphate 2.0 in Sub-Saharan Africa. One of the prongs of this strategy is to take control of strategic roads and highways, allowing IS to expand into old territories and areas that were previously free from an Islamic State presence. This strategy is evident across all IS affiliates in the African continent and has recently been witnessed across Iraq and Syria.
Islamic State controls the M5 Damascus-Amman International Highway that passes through Dara’a; so much so that no security forces can enter/exit the highway without being ambushed. Since the launch of this offensive in April 2023, TRAC has recorded over 62 assaults on this particular highway alone.
However, IS has not contained itself to the M5 and has made relentless efforts to expand its control to the M7 Damascus-Hasakah Highway. The M7 Highway is an extension of the M5 Damascus-Amman International Highway and connects Damascus to Hasakah via Homs and Deir Ezzor. While IS operations on the M7 have mostly been limited to the Homs Governorate, TRAC recently observed a sudden intensification in IS operations on the highway in Deir Ezzor and Hasakah.
Apart from the M5 and M7, IS is attempting to take control of the M4 and M42 in Raqqa Governorate. The M4 connects Raqqa to Deir Ezzor and goes down to al-Qaim in Iraq, whereas, the M42 highway connects Homs Governorate to Raqqa and blends into the M6 in Raqqa Governorate.
While these may come off as random highway numbers that IS has been trying to control, a closer look reveals that, except for the M5 highway, all of them lead to Deir Ezzor. Deir Ezzor is surrounded by Homs (west), Raqqa (north), and Hasakah (east) on three sides and with Anbar (Iraq) in the south. It is notable that IS also controls the M1 highway in the ar-Rutba District of Anbar that leads to al-Qaim on the Deir Ezzor border.
Islamic State’s intentions for Iraq and Syria are not yet clear, but their focus on Deir Ezzor and Anbar is undeniable. TRAC posits the possibility that IS intends to join Iraq and Syria through Deir Ezzor and Anbar, as the group does not consider the two countries as two separate entities. If true and if successful, this would be a massive victory and an unprecedented 'comeback' of Islamic State.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Lone Gunman Wearing 'Combat Clothing' Arrested after Opening Fire Inside the Erasmus Medical Center and a Nearby Apartment,
in Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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On 28 September 2023, a lone gunman wearing, purported 'combat clothing' was arrested after opening fire inside the Erasmus Medical Center, after first having opened fire in the nearby apartment building, Heiman Dullaertplein in Rotterdam. Significant fires were also set at both locations and the attack resulted in the death of two and injury of at least one minor.
The detained suspect has been identified as a 32-year-old Rotterdam resident of the Heiman Dullaertplein, as well as a student at Erasmus Medical Center. Police stated that the two fatalities were a a 39-year-old woman and a 46-year-old man. Reports state that the woman lost her life in her own home and her 14-year-old child sustained serious injuries during the same incident. The male victim, a lecturer at Erasmus MC, was killed onsite at the hospital itself. Law enforcement has characterized this incident as a targeted action.
In the Netherlands, active-shooter events are exceedingly rare, even as the country hosts quite an active right-wing extremist scene. Upon his arrest, the suspect was found in possession of a firearm and was wearing a bulletproof vest. It is important to note that the wearing of 'combat gear' is straight out of the extreme far-right, Terrorgram Collective playbook. Therefore, although the motive for the attack is seemingly personal, it is plausible that the shooter may have been influenced or motivated by the multitude of manifestos and stochastic propaganda disseminated within this ideological sphere. These materials often serve as catalysts for individuals harboring extremist beliefs, potentially fueling their violent actions.
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TRAC Incident Report:
The Head of Taliban (IEA) Intelligence for Musakhel District
Killed & Two Others Wounded During an Armed Confrontation
with a Local in Saber Mangal, Musakhel District,
Khost Province, Afghanistan
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Mulla Arif, Head of Taliban Intelligence killed on 29 September 2023 | |
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On 29 September 2023, it was reported that Mulla Arif, the head of Taliban Intelligence for the Musakhel District of Khost province, was killed and two other Taliban militants were injured during an armed confrontation with a purported local resident. The assailant was said to have also been killed during the confrontation.
Although the precise motive behind the attack remains unclear, it is worth noting that the security forces of the new Kabul regime have been increasingly involved in extortion and common criminal activities amongst residents, which likely fueled the assailant's motives.
However, TRAC cannot rule out Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) involvement. ISK has been active in Khost Province of Afghanistan since 2015 and has been responsible for a host of armed assaults and IED attacks in the region, including targeting civilians in Khost and conducting suicide bombings in Khost City, the capital of Khost Province. ISK is also well-known for targeting government buildings and military bases throughout Afghanistan, as well as ambushing Taliban militants and assassinating Taliban officials. Just one week prior to this incident, on 22 September, ISK is suspected of assassinating the Taliban (IEA) Deputy Chief of Staff, Deo Malgari Hijran, in the Shash Darak district of Kabul, Afghanistan.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Moroccan Islamic State (IS) Supporter at Large After Removing
His Surveillance Bracelet, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Álava, Spain
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On 29 September 2023, reports emerged that a convicted man of Moroccan origin, 52, identified by his initials as AEM, removed of his surveillance bracelet and is currently a wanted fugitive by the authorities in Vitoria, Álava. The tracking device was found in the Salburua neighborhood and the fugitive, who was under supervised release, had served time in prison for trying to travel to Syria to join Islamic State (IS).
It should be noted that the fugitive was arrested in December 2016 in Irún, Guipúzcoa, Basque Country when he was driving a heavy truck that authorities believed he was intending to use to carry out an attack. After being jailed and released, the fugitive was arrested again in 2019 for spreading jihadist ideologies. Based on these details, it is clear that the suspect still poses a high threat to Spain, as the prison time that he served does not appear to have facilitated his deradicalization.
This incident comes only days after a national police operation led to the arrest of an Islamic State (IS) supporter in an advanced state of radicalization, in Briviesca, Burgos. Similarly, an incident took place in early September in Pamplona, where a Moroccan IS supporter was arrested for recruiting people willing to carry out attacks on behalf of the Islamic State, in Pamplona.
Located in Northern Spain, Vitoria-Gasteiz is the capital of the Basque Autonomous Community and the Álava territory. The town sits exactly between Briviesca and Pamplona, which leads TRAC to posit that the three aforementioned jihadists of Moroccan origin were likely in contact with each other.
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TRAC Incident Report: Suspicious Fire Breaks Out at Maximum-Security Klong Prem Prison, Chatuchak District, Bangkok, Thailand | |
TRAC Incident Report: Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) Militants Detonated an IED Targeting FAMA and Wagner Forces, in Tarkint, Gao, Mali | |
TRAC Incident Report: Nigerian Air Force (NAF) Strikes Boko Haram and Islamic States of West Africa Province (ISWAP) Infrastructures, Tumbun Fulani & Tumbun Shitu, Lake Chad, Borno State, Nigeria | | | | |
