Santa Clause Rally

November 28, 2022

Enjoy this week's "Investor Insights," a weekly newsletter that highlights the financial news you need to know and provides tips and tricks to help you make better investment decisions.

Historically the “Santa Clause rally” is a period that lasts from the day after Christmas through the second trading session of the New Year. The Dow over this period has risen in 77% of the years since 1896 with an average gain of 1.5%. ₁

Coverage of tech-sector layoffs may be overdone. Research shows the unemployment rate would rise by less than 0.3% if everyone employed in the “internet publishing, broadcasting, and web search portal” industry was laid off. ₂

Data from Black Friday indicates growth in all areas: In-store and online sales were up 12% compared to 2021. Additionally, in-person shopping increased this year by 2.9% as shoppers moved on from the coronavirus pandemic. ₃

The recent surge in Covid-19 cases and the resulting lockdowns across China are a strong reality check for investor optimism. The country's major stock index, the Hang Seng, has fallen nearly 27% since last year. ₄

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Market Watch - "'Santa Clause Rally' for Stocks is Likely This Year - But You Won't be Opening Presents Until After Christmas"
The Irrelevant Investor - "These are the Goods"
Bloomberg - "In-Person Shopping Increased 2.9%: Black Friday Update"
WSJ - "China Will Get Over Covid-19. But Will its Markets Recover?"

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