- This year is the first time that both stocks and bonds have lost money for 3 consecutive quarters since 1931. Investors remain hopeful that performance will improve, since the average 4th quarter return for stocks during midterm election years is 6.5%.
- Although the S&P 500’s healthcare sector is down 7.3% this year, it is still outperforming the broader market by the widest gap since 2000. This is partially because demand for healthcare services is less affected by the strength of the economy.
- Many of the elements that traditionally increase demand for gold occurred this year: persistent inflation, war, and a weak stock market. Despite these factors, gold has not been a “safe-haven” as it is down by 10% in 2022.
- Some analysts point out that even though the S&P 500 is down 20% this year the unemployment rate is down to 3.5% its lowest rate since 1969. The S&P 500 has never experienced a decline this deep with unemployment below 4%.
BlackRock Student of the Market- "October 2022"
WSJ- "Healthcare Stocks Offer Investors Refuge in Bruised Market"
Barrons- "Gold Is Having a Bad Year. Gold Mining Funds Are Doing Even Worse."
The Irrelevant Investor- "Three Things Dampening the Pain"
Economic Calendar
Monday:
Consumer credit (level change) (Sep), Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Boston Fed President Susan Collins speak about women in economics, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks on inflation
Tuesday:
Election Day, NFIB small-business index (Oct)
Wednesday:
New York Fed President John Williams speaks at Swiss National Bank event, Wholesale inventories (revision) (Sep), Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks on outlook
Thursday:
Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speaks on central bank digital currencies, Consumer price index (monthly change) (Oct), Core CPI (monthly change) (Oct), CPI (12-month change) (Oct), Core CPI (12-month change) (Oct), CPI (3-month SAAR) (Oct), Core CPI (3-month SAAR) (Oct), Real average hourly earnings (3-month SAAR) (Oct), Initial jobless claims (Nov), Continuing jobless claims (Oct), Federal budget (compared with year ago) (Oct)
Friday:
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks on economic outlook, Dallas Fed President Laurie Logan speaks on energy and the economy, UMich consumer sentiment (early) (Nov), UMich consumer 5-year inflation expectations (early) (Nov), Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks, Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on energy and the economy, New York Fed President John Williams speaks
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