📉 Inflation + Jobs Data: The Perfect Setup for Lower Rates?

December 3 , 2025

Inflation + Jobs Data: The Perfect Setup for Lower Rates?

⚡TL;DR — Quick Takeaways:

Rates sit around 6.23%, basically flat from last week. A weak ADP jobs report stopped an early-week rate spike.

Watch the next 48 hours: Higher-than-expected jobless claims tomorrow + cooler inflation Friday could both push rates down heading into Fed week.

Global perspective: The UBS Bubble Index shows San Francisco on the low end of bubble risk and far more stable than cities like Miami, Tokyo, Zurich, or LA.

The holiday window is a sweet spot: Fewer buyers + motivated sellers = more negotiation power and seller credits ($10K–$30K+).

Fed meeting next week may be the most chaotic of 2025, with mixed signals on whether the Fed will hold or cut.

Insurance update: Farmers lifts its cap on new CA homeowners policies but requests a 6.99% rate increase.

Featured solution: Buy Before You Sell Loan — eliminates contingencies, removes your existing mortgage from DTI, and unlocks up to 75% equity.

🗓️ Click here to view the full economic calendar

Happy Wednesday,

The national average 30-year fixed is sitting at 6.23% (Mortgage News Daily), which is essentially flat from last week. Rates started creeping up earlier in the week, but this morning's weaker-than-expected ADP jobs report pulled them back down.

Here's why the next 48 hours matter:

Tomorrow: Jobless claims data drops. If they come in higher than expected, that typically pushes rates down, which is good news for buyers on the fence.

Friday: September's inflation report. If PCE comes in cool (or even just on target), we could see rates ease heading into the Fed meeting next Wednesday.

Bottom line, same rates today... but the mood could shift fast with new data.

One Thing Worth Sharing With Clients

Ever heard of the UBS Global Bubble Index? It ranks cities worldwide by how overheated their housing markets are.

San Francisco's ranking might surprise you, it's on the low end of bubble risk, below Miami, Tokyo, Zurich, Dubai, and LA.

The index measures five factors: price-to-income ratios, price-to-rent ratios, mortgage debt growth, construction activity, and deviation from national trends.

The takeaway? The Bay Area market is stable, not stretched. That's a useful talking point for hesitant buyers.

🏠 The Best Buying Window Is Hidden in Plain Sight

The next 1–2 weeks are one of the most strategic windows of the year:

Sellers are motivated by year-end tax timelines
Buyer demand drops
Lowball offers get accepted
Seller credits of $10K–$30K+ are common
These credits can fund 2/1 or 3/2/1 buydowns
If buyers refinance later, unused credits apply to principal

🏦 Fed Meeting: Most Chaotic of 2025

Next week’s Fed meeting is expected to be highly unpredictable due to a split among policymakers on whether to hold or cut rates.
Weak labor-market data supports a cut, while lingering inflation pressures support a hold, fueling market confusion.
Even if the Fed cuts its benchmark rate, mortgage rates may not fall because they’re more influenced by longer-term bond yields and investor sentiment.

🛡️Farmers Insurance – Cap Lifted in California

Farmers Insurance is lifting its cap on new homeowner policies in California, effective immediately.
Simultaneously seeking a 6.99% rate increase statewide.
Expected to issue several thousand new policies, especially in high-risk, distressed wildfire zones.
Helps loosen the tight property-insurance landscape that has affected affordability and marketability in many CA regions.

Quote to Ponder

“It always seems impossible until it’s done.”

— Nelson Mandela

Featured Financing Solution

Buy Before You Sell Loan

✅ Eliminate Contingencies.

✅ Remove existing mortgage payment from debt to income ratio to qualify.

✅ 0% Bridge Loan.

✅ Unlock up to 70-75% of the equity in the current home.

Important Reports

Recent Real Estate and Economic News

Mortgage Rates Back Down Near Recent Lows

Mortgage rates improved more noticeably today, and while the average rate isn't quite as low as it was last week, it's fairly close.  Rates are based on movement in the bond market. Bonds were most likely to move in response to one or both of today's big economic reports.  Oddly enough, most of the bond market improvement was seen overnight, BEFORE the economic data came out.