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Good Wednesday morning!
It's FED day today!!!
We are going to keep it short and sweet..... again. The profile pic and key levels tell it all!! Look at the tight overnight range. It is what's called a symmetrical triangle, or where we see lower highs and higher lows, a compression of prices. This tells us that market participants are basically on the sidelines waiting for the key information from the FED which will be released at 2:00 PM EST, followed by Fed Chair press conference @ 2:30 PM EST!!!
As we talked about yesterday, the bulls regained control and definitely put the shorts in pain early during the session, HOWEVER, sellers finally came in and very key levels were lost to the downside and lower targets were hit!!! As we laid out for everyone.....
"If there is a pullback, expect the double top @ 5702 to be tested and then maybe 5696.75. If these levels are tested they "should hold" and "should be" bought, however, if they are not and the selling intensifies, then look for lower targets!"
Yesterday when 5709 was lost and then 5696.75 got blown out, there was fast tempo and momentum to the downside so there wasn't even a question as to whether or not they were going to buy these levels. The answer was a resounding no!
Please check out the profile pic and key levels and ranges for today. Overnight range has been tight but once the bell rings there could be early movement to try to front run the decision. Any price action that stays between 5711 - 5697.50 is pure balance so expect chop and responsive trade. If buyers come in, look for longs above 5711 then upper targets where there could be new initiating trade to the upside. If sellers come in and take out 5697.50 then look to the short side and lower targets.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added however we took one out above current prices so we now have only 1 above and 22 untested points of control below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5725 - 5735
Key Levels: 5711 Overnight high and 5696.75 POC
downside target is: 5680 - 5670
/NQ upside target is: 19,810 - 19,840
Key Level: 19,712 1/2 Back Prior day
downside target is : 19,620 - 19,580
/RTY upside target is: 2245 - 2255
downside target is: 2220 - 2200
Economic Data: FOMC TODAY !!!!
MBA Mortgage Applications @ 7:00 AM ET
Housing Starts and Permits @ 8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations @10:00 AM ET
Crude Inventories @10:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary) @11:00 AM
4-Month Bill Auction @11:30 AM ET
FOMC Announcement @ 2:00 PM ET
Fed Chair Press Conference @ 2:30 PM ET
Treasury International Capital @ 4:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
/ES - Demand at $5670–80 then at $5540 with Supply at $5700-5710
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5670 and holding below after a pullback looking to play SHORT targeting $5644 then $5630
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5670 after a break and retest playing a gap and go from the weekend GAP fill targeting $5688 then $5695
SPY - Demand at $560 w / Supply at $565-566
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $560 after a break and retest from $561 looking to play LONG targeting $563 then $565
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $559 after a retest below $558 targeting $556 then $555
/NQ - Key Demand at $19550 with Supply at $19850
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $19550 looking to play long targeting $19600s
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $19500 and holding , looking to play short targeting $19450 then$19405
QQQ - Key Demand at $471-470 with Supply above at $476-477
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $470 looking to play long from a break and retest at $471 targeting $473 then $474
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $470 after a break and retest below $469 looking to play short targeting $468 then at $467
TSLA Key Demand at $224 -223 w/ Supply at $234
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $223 after a pullback holds above $222 playing Long targeting $219 then $217
Bullish
A breakout then pullback holding above $224 playing Long targeting $227 then &229
AMD - Key Demand at $148-150 with Supply at $155
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $148 after a break and retest from $147 playing Short targeting $145 then $144
Bullish
Sellers trapped $147 looking to play long from $148 targeting $150 then $151
Have a great day!
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