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Good Tuesday morning,
Wicked volatility on Monday after traders and investors around the world had their eyes on the Middle East, as fighting continued between the United States and Iran. Initially, futures hit our upper targets at 6055-6065 (high at that time was 6058.25), and then retreated and dropped to new lows on the back of news that Iran sent missiles towards U.S. bases in Qatar.
From 10:15 a.m. EST to 12:30 p.m. EST, sellers came in and futures dropped to Friday's lows, but then rebounded sharply after it was reported that Iran's missiles were shot down, as there were no injuries or casualties. That was great news, and tremendous support showed up at Friday lows. These levels brought buyers back in, on both the ES and NQ futures. Our lower targets were almost hit, but as mentioned, futures reversed course, and then broke back to new intraday highs. Quite a wild ride. Those that stayed fluid were happy campers, yet those who couldn't switch gears got massively disappointed. (Like the guys above!)
This morning, however, it is a rip higher on the back of ceasefire talks between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Short traders once again are getting greatly disappointed. In the profile pic and key levels, prices shot well above yesterday's high at 6081.50, and for a time, even back above the June 11th high at 6128.75; however they are now slightly back below. This kind of gap, and shock and awe, will keep traders on their toes today. The key levels and game plan are laid out below.
If price stays above the overnight half-back at 6110, then it is a definite edge to the bulls. Any price back over the June 11th high at 6128.75 also confirms this fact. Only a loss of 6110 would I look for a fade lower back to the VPOC at 6091, then yesterday's high at 6081.50. IF this happens, and if price starts moving towards prior high, then and only then should we look for lower targets. If the lower targets are taken out, then the next stop would be the POC at 6050. This is a lower probability trade but we must share it nonetheless! Anything can happen at anytime in the markets, especially now with the news flow being so important, things can change on a dime!
**And if that weren't enough for you today, one more very important thing to note: Fed Chair Powell will be speaking today starting at 10:00 a.m. EST, so stay on your guard. Expect headlines from his speech to move markets!!
Futures are currently trading at 6120 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's added or taken out yesterday, so we continue to have 4 above and 21 below. 6091 was the closest above, but with this large gap higher this morning, it is now BELOW current price and is in play today!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6150 - 6160
Key Levels: 6110 ON 1/2 Back then 6091 VPOC
downside target is: 6080 - 6070
/NQ upside target is: 22,350 - 22,400
Key Level: 22,230 ON 1/2 Back
downside target is : 22,150 - 22,100
/RTY upside target is: 2185 - 2195
downside target is: 2150 - 2140
Economic Data : Red Star Event
Current Account @ 8:30 AM ET
Case-Shiller Home Price Index @ 9:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index @ 9:00 AM ET
Beth Hammack Speaks @ 9:15 AM ET
Consumer Confidence @ 10:00 AM ET
Jerome Powell Speaks @ 10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index @ 10:00 AM ET
Beth Hammack Speaks @ 10:15 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary) @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
8-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
John Williams Speaks @ 12:30 PM ET
2-Yr Note Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
Money Supply @ 1:00 PM ET
Susan Collins Speaks @ 2:05 PM ET
Michael Barr Speaks @ 4:00 PM ET
More Color By : Rich Rickus
- /ES - Key Demand $6060 -6070 then below at $5960 and $5925 with Supply above at $6143-6170
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $6060looking to play a break and retest above $6070 long targeting $6120 then $6150
Bearish Buyers trapped below $59960 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5955 targeting $65926 then a break down into $5890s
- SPY Key demand at then at $603-604 with Supply above at $606-607
Bullish Sellers trapped above $603 looking to play a break and retest from $604 long targeting $606 then a breakout into high $606 new HOD
Bearish Buyers trapped below $603 after a break and retest below $604 targeting $603 then a breakdown into $601
- /NQ Key demand at $22200 then at $21500 with Supply above at $22380-22400
Bullish Sellers trapped above $22200 looking to play a break and retest above $22010w long targeting $22300 then a breakout back into low $22400
Bearish Buyers trapped below $21550 looking to play short from below $21500 targeting $21400 then $21200s
- QQQ Key Demand at $535-536 with Supply at $539-538
Bullish Sellers trapped above $535 looking to play a break and retest from $536 targeting $538 then a breakout into high $539.50
Bearish Buyers trapped below $535 looking to play a break and retest below $534 targeting $532 then $531
Have a great day and stay safe!
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