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Good Thursday morning,
Yesterday we had what is called a classic "balance day" where the markets basically went sideways, and both the bulls and bears didn't gain much for their efforts. The key levels we mentioned were tested multiple times—both to the upside and downside—but no follow-through occurred. It was extremely volatile, yet neither side could get and keep the upper hand. The reversals were sharp and frequent, but we still have some very good information and data to watch for today!!
In the profile pic below, you can see where the two-day balance settled as the Value Areas were overlapping (yellow shaded areas) between Tuesday and Wednesday. Price looked bullish multiple times as it went above the POC at 5916, however, things looked bearish as well as the top of the spike, overnight low and half-back at 5896 was taken out, but as mentioned, no follow through! Well today should be the day!!! And what I mean by that is as we said yesterday, the market has had a huge move from the April 7th lows and has become overextended, so a pullback, or "liquidation break" is inevitable at this point and if we stay below 5896 and yesterday's low of 5890, then the lower targets should be in play. I also have further downside targets- please mark them down.
First things first for today: Price is already at the lower target area of 5880-5870. If price doesn't hold these lower targets and overnight low at 5867, and moves lower, then look for the following:
- 5840
- 5820-5810
- 5785-5775
- 5750
I do not mean to say these will all happen in one day but please make a note of them!
Upper Targets
Now, if the lower target area and overnight lows hold, and price can move back into the prior day's range above 5890, then above 5896, look for upper targets! IF price can move back over 5896, first stop is the POC, overnight high and half-back at 5908, then VAH at 5914 then prior highs and upper targets at 5930-5940. We must be fluid today and ready for anything! Case in point: we just had multiple economic data points released and the futures popped on the news!
Futures are currently trading at 5898 as of this writing.
VPOC Update: Finally, no new VPOC's were added or taken out yesterday. We still have 5 above and 20 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5930 - 5940
Key Levels: 5908 POC & 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5880 - 5870, then 5840
/NQ upside target is: 21,520 - 21,560
Key Level: 21,355 POC
downside target is : 21,250 - 21,200
/RTY upside target is: 2100 - 2110
downside target is: 2070 - 2060
Economic Data: Very Busy Day
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
PPI-Final Demand @ 8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales @ 8:30 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index @ 8:30 AM ET
Empire State Manufacturing Index @ 8:30 AM ET
Jerome Powell Speaks @ 8:40 AM ET
Industrial Production @ 9:15 AM ET
Business Inventories @ 10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
20-Yr Bond Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Results @ 2:00 PM ET
Michael Barr Speaks. @ 2:05 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30 PM ET
More Color By : Rich Rickus
/ES - Key Demand $5830 then below at $5730 with Supply at $5995
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5830 looking to play a break and retest above $5840 long targeting $5880 then $5900
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5825 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5820 targeting $5805 then a break down into $5780s
SPY Key demand at then at $570-571 with Supply above at $588-586
Bullish Sellers trapped above $571 looking to play a break and retest from $572 long targeting $574 then a breakout mid high $575s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $570 after a break and retest below $569 targeting $567’s then a breakdown into $566’s
/NQ Key demand at $21000 then at $20680 with Supply above at $21500
Bullish Sellers trapped above $21000 looking to play a break and retest above $21050 long targeting $22000 then a breakout back into low $23000’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $21000 looking to play short from below $20950 targeting $20800 then $20650
QQQ Key Demand at $504 then at $508-510with Supply at 519-520
Bullish Sellers trapped above $510 looking to play a break and retest from $511 targeting $513 then a breakout into low mid $515s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $508 looking to play a break and retest short from $507 targeting $505 then $504s
Have a great day!
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