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Weekly Analyst Review

14 December 2022

 

Bottom Line Up Front

On 12 December 2022, the Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) released a video entitled, "The State of the Coast; and Who Let God Who Help Them." This latest video, showing different ISGS Katibas, including one being led by Abu al-Bara, depicts an amassment of hundreds, if not thousands, of ISGS fighters gathering in the Sahel.


In February 2022 rumors of Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) fighters being sent as reinforcements for ISGS first circulated; TRAC has been able to confirm through its on-the-ground sources that a steady stream of ISWA fighters are entering into various areas of the Sahel via at least two entrance points from Nigeria into Niger to assist ISGS.


The first signs of ISWA reinforcement's overwhelming effects were seen in early September in the Battle for Talataye, when Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) was not only demonstrably outnumbered, but were also unmatched to ISGS' superior tactical knowledge.To this end, ISGS maintained four front lines simultaneously and even with Malian air power supporting the Azawad forces was able to make control of the city.


TRAC has long monitored the situation between National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), and Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) and has been predicting dire clashes between the groups to continue well into 2023 throughout the Sahel. Given the hundreds, if not thousands, of ISGS fighters assembled in various unspecified locations as shown in this recent video, TRAC contends that these battles will be imminent. 

Although the media is reporting that the clashes are currently restricted to Eastern Mali, a map from Islamic State insiders shows the North East corner of Burkina Faso, Oudalan, is also witnessing clashes.


TRAC has been warning of this clash since the end of October 2022 when Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) reportedly won the initial confrontation against Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) militants in Ménaka and Gao Regions, Mali. TRAC posits that this initial event sparked the clashes to follow. Locals say that at least 100 people have died in the conflicts so far, reporting that clashes have been ongoing in the past 2 days. On 6 December 2022, more than 70 people were reportedly killed by Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM).

Other Developments

TRAC Insight:

Comparing Bay’ah Under all Islamic State Caliphs

Image: Banner from IS Central Command's audio message naming new Caliph, Abu Al Hussain Al Hussaini Al Qurashi

As reported last week, on 30 November 2022, IS Central Command announced the death of its caliph Abu al-Hassan al-Hashemi al-Qurashi along with naming Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi as the new caliph. Since then, IS affiliates around the world have been pledging allegiance (Bay’ah) to the new caliph.


Even though Abu Umar al-Baghdadi (2006-2010) was the first caliph of the Islamic State, the culture of issuing Bay’ah mainly became popular during the time of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Despite receiving Bay’ah from more than 30 global locations, there were no official Bay’ah photosets for Baghdadi. The photosets TRAC has on record are mainly unofficial and were never released by IS Central Command.


However, just before Baghdadi’s death in 2019, the group released an official video Bay’ah series under the title, “And The Best Outcome Is For the Pious.” The infamous series, comprised of about 15 videos, featured IS affiliates re-pledging allegiance to Baghdadi over the summer of 2019.


After Baghdadi’s death, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi became the caliph of the Islamic State and the group adopted a more formal approach towards Bay’ah by releasing official photosets of IS affiliates swearing allegiance to the new caliph. However, unlike Baghdadi’s reign, there was significantly less Bay’ah videos released for Abu Ibrahim, with Ibrahim receiving Bay'ah from 18 locations as opposed to his predecessor's 30.


Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi became IS caliph in February 2022 and IS militants from about 15 countries swore allegiance to him. Following the footsteps of Ibrahim, IS’s official media house released 24 official Bay’ah photo sets along with 8 Bay’ah videos featuring IS affiliates, with one of the most interesting and unusual being the Bay’ah video from East Asia, which depicted surveillance drone capabilities.


During the time of Abu al-Hassan, Islamic State became more organized. IS Wilayahs like ISK included Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia while Islamic State Jammu & Kashmir (ISJK) was merged into Wilayah al-Hind or Islamic State India. Lasting only nine months as caliph, Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi was succeeded by Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi. Although a singular Bay'ah video has been released, the new caliph has received the highest number of Bay'ah photosets so far, with 27.


In a very surprising move, the first unofficial Bay'ah video came from Majid al-Haram inside Mecca, Saudi Arabia. This is the first time in the history of the Islamic State that a caliph received a Bay’ah from inside Mecca.


Additionally, unlike the previous two caliphs, Abu al-Hussein also received allegiance from Lebanon, Arakan (Myanmar), and Mozambique. It is important to note that never before has Wilayah Mozambique issued a Bay’ah apart from Islamic State Central Africa (ISCA).


Nevertheless, the most notable absence is of the Bay’ah from Wilayah Sinai. Islamic State Sinai (ISS) is highly active in the region and not receiving Bay’ah from them is unusual. TRAC speculates that IS Central Command has not yet received photos from ISS due to the remote location and ineffective communication system.

TRAC Incident Report:

Indian and Chinese Troops Clashed at the Disputed border on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Tawang Sector of

Arunachal Pradesh, India

Image:  Likely location of Tawang

On 09 December 2022, clashes erupted between Indian and Chinese troops over a disputed border territory on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Tawang Sector of the Himalayan border state of Arunachal Pradesh. The fight erupted when a large number of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers tried to cross the LAC.


The Sino-Indian border dispute is an ongoing territorial dispute over the sovereignty of two large and several smaller pieces of territory between China and India. The area affected by the 09 December skirmish is known as Arunachal Pradesh, which was part of the 1914 ‘Simla Convention’ signed between Great Britain, India and Tibet.


According to media sources, melee and other close combat weapons, such as sticks, were reportedly used. Injuries were reported on both sides, with the Chinese side taking the brunt of the injuries.

TRAC Incident Report:

Essakane Gold Mine Convoy Ambushed on N3 Between

Ouanobe and Tougori, Sahel Region, Burkina Faso

Image: Map where the gold mine is located.

On 08 December 2022, armed militants ambushed a convoy of trucks belonging to the Essakane Gold Mine. The attack took place on the N3 between Ouanobe and Tougori, Sahel Region, Burkina Faso. Six trucks were razed, two drivers killed and the rest abducted.


In the past, Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) have attempted to take control of lucrative gold mines in Burkina Faso, as illegal gold mining is a popular financing and resourcing technique employed by jihadists in the Sahel. Essakane Gold Mine is one of the most successful gold mines in Burkina Faso and TRAC suspects that a heavy private security presence has been put in place at the mine to protect it from jihadists who attempt to gain control of it.


Due to this heavy security, militants have resorted to targeting convoys and workers who travel to and from the mine when they are most vulnerable. Ten percent of Essakane Gold Mine is owned by the Burkina government and it relies heavily on gold mining for an income for the state. The rest, 90%, is owned by the Canadian IAMGOLD Corporation.

On Our Radar:

 

TRAC Photo Report:

An Alleged Improvised Explosive Device (IED) Found on a Patient Led to the Evacuation of Felix Bulnes Hospital Emergency Room, Cerro Navia-Quinta Normal, Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile 

Claim:

(Anonymous Anarchist) German Anarchist Arson Attack on a 'Hertz' Rental Car Company Branch in Hamburg Wandsbek, Hamburg, Germany

TRAC Incident Report: Kremlin-Linked Neo-Nazi Paramilitary Group, Rusich, Resorted to its Social Networks Followers to Obtain Intel on NATO Military Movements in the Baltics, Russia

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