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PDF | Research | Week of April 1 2024

Quote of the Week

“We’re in an environment where growth continues to positively surprise.”

– Bill Merz, head of capital markets research, US Bank Wealth Management.

 
 

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The New Order: Leverage Finance in an Asset Management World (Third of a Series)

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Best Practices in Private Credit (First of a Series)

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Last Thursday was opening day for MLB, a hopeful sign of spring. Catching up on some interesting 2023 statistics from our national pastime, we noted that Luis Arráez of the Miami Marlins won the NL batting championship with a .354 average. Astonishingly, this was Arraez’s second consecutive title. He topped the AL in 2022 with the Twins, becoming the first player ever to perform that feat back-to-back in different leagues.

 

Nicknamed La Regadera (“The Sprinkler”) for his exceptional hitting ability, Arraez struck out fewer than 8% of his plate appearances, compared to 25% for the average ballplayer. His batting average is also 100 points higher than the average. We raise this because it highlights the stark contrast between average and best-in-class performers.

 

Investors in private credit also focus on managers with low strike-out percentages and who can hit to all fields. We’ve highlighted how media and some research outlets address topics such as defaults and recoveries. They cite data compiled from dozens of managers.  But this is misleading. Investors don’t invest in all managers. They select the best based on a variety of factors...

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Chart of the Week

All About Portfolios

Top three criteria investors use to select credit managers are portfolio-centric.

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Source: Coalition Greenwich 2023 Private Credit Market Structure Study

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Ryan Brown / PitchBook LCD

PDI Picks

Is stress emerging to save Asian fundraising?

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Last year was tough for GPs seeking capital to invest in Asia Pacific but distressed/opportunistic strategies were bucking the trend. 

Fundraising for private credit in Asia Pacific took a nasty hit in 2023, with just 11 funds reaching the finish line, compared with 33 the year before. The amount of capital raised was also down considerably, standing at a cumulative $5.9 billion – barely one-third of the $15.5 billion raised in 2022, according to Private Debt Investor data...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Daily Analytic: Survey - Unitranche spreads shift lower

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Stiffer competition from the syndicated market has put pressure on direct lenders to tighten spreads on unitranche loans. According to LSEG LPC's 2Q24 Middle Market Outlook Survey, 36% of direct lender respondents said their minimum threshold for unitranche spreads was in the 500-525bp range...


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The Pulse of Private Equity

Private debt fund performance

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Drilling down to the major substrategies, mezzanine funds kicked into high gear with a one-year horizon return of 22.8% as of Q3 2023. This compares to a one-year return of 4.7% for distressed/special situation funds...

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Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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Defaults: Rates steady, but signs point to increases later this year

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Direct lending defaults and non-accruals are low, yet other key measures suggest there's room for growth in both segments later this year and into 2025. Some expect fragile assets to start crumbling by the second half of 2024—there’s not much runway left after an 18-month stretch of rising interest, higher labor costs and price increases...

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Rising Payment-in-Kind Trends in Private Credit Will Have a Mixed Impact

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Interests paid-in-kind (PIK) are likely to rise among private middle-market loans in the US through both amendments to existing loans and as an optionality in new loan originations, as the impact of higher rates fully kicks in and credit burden builds up among borrowers...

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Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Distribution of Synergies & Cost Savings EBITDA Addback Time Horizons

(for Actions Resulting in Addbacks)

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 10.4% as of 28 March, down from the highest level in last 12 months of 12.1% in May 2023) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...


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Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

Private Debt Intelligence

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North American-based private debt AUM hits $1tn

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Private debt in North America has overtaken real estate in 2023 to become the second largest private capital asset class by assets under management (AUM), topping $1tn for the first time. AUM grew 18% in H1 2023, faster than private equity (13%), and private capital markets overall (11%)...

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Contact: William Bennett-Lynch / Preqin

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.