WEEKLY UPDATE

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Congress returns from the holiday recess today with the threat of a partial government shutdown just 25 days away. Lawmakers have less than four weeks before the January 30 deadline to extend funding for several federal agencies. While full-year funding is already in place for the Department of Agriculture, the FDA, military construction, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the legislative branch, nine appropriations bills remain unresolved, including the FY26 Defense Appropriations Act.

Senate appropriators attempted to make progress before the holiday break by advancing a five-bill minibus package covering Defense, Labor–HHS–Education, Transportation–HUD, Commerce–Justice–Science, and Interior–Environment. That effort fell short when the chamber failed to clear an initial procedural vote, underscoring both internal Republican divisions and Democratic concerns. Senate Republicans only recently resolved objections from conservative members regarding earmarks, spending levels, and other policy issues. Senators Rick Scott (R-FL) and Mike Lee (R-UT) lifted their holds regarding earmarks in exchange for amendment votes, while Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) secured commitments from President Donald Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) to pursue his legislation guaranteeing pay for federal workers during a shutdown. Even with those issues addressed, the timing left little room to process the package before adjournment.

For Democrats, Senators Michael Bennet (D-CO) and John Hickenlooper (D-CO) publicly held up the package to press for full funding of the National Center for Atmospheric Research after Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought said the Boulder-based facility would be dismantled. Senate Appropriations Ranking Member Patty Murray (D-WA) indicated that Democrats were surveying members about desired amendments, a process she said would take time, and made clear that floor action would slip into January.

In the House, Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) is seeking to move a narrower appropriations package as early as this week. According to reports, that package would exclude the Defense and Labor–HHS–Education bills, allowing additional time for negotiations on the largest and most contentious measures.

The Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Cybersecurity will receive a closed briefing on Tuesday on the Department of War’s cyber operations and readiness. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence will also receive classified briefings on intelligence matters, likely focused on the recent U.S. military action in Venezuela.

On January 3, the United States carried out a “large-scale strike” in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. President Trump said the U.S. would temporarily “run” Venezuela until a “proper transition can take place.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that the U.S. will not govern the day-to-day affairs of the country. Trump also announced plans to sell seized Venezuelan oil assets, deploy U.S. energy companies to repair and operate oil infrastructure, and warned that the military is prepared to conduct a “second and much larger attack” if necessary to secure the effort.

The military action in Venezuela has sparked fierce backlash from congressional Democrats. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) said he will force a vote this week to block further military action against Venezuela without congressional approval in the wake of the operation. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) released statements lambasting the operation. “The idea that Trump plans to now run Venezuela should strike fear in the hearts of all Americans. The American people have seen this before and paid the devastating price,” said Schumer. Democratic lawmakers criticized the administration for not providing a briefing ahead of the operation, while President Trump defended the decision as necessary to avoid leaks. Senators are expected to receive a briefing from the administration this week.

While Democrats have criticized the administration’s legal justification for the strike, the operation aligns with domestic legal constraints and past precedents (such as the 1989 invasion of Panama to arrest Manuel Noriega) but may not align with international law, such as the U.N. Charter’s prohibition on force. Much of the legal and political debate will likely focus on the next phase for the country and how expansive a role the U.S. will take.  

The second session of the 119th Congress begins today, with appropriations set to dominate the near-term agenda. The FY26 Defense Appropriations bill remains one of nine unfinished spending measures and will be central to negotiations over a potential “minibus” package. Senate leaders are aiming to advance a five-bill minibus that would include Defense, Labor–HHS–Education, Transportation–HUD, Commerce–Justice–Science, and Interior–Environment. Even if the Senate succeeds in moving the package, its prospects in the House remain uncertain. In the House, Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) is seeking to move a narrower appropriations package as early as this week that would include funding for Commerce-Justice-Science, Interior, and Energy and Water programs. Cole would delay consideration of the Defense and Labor–HHS–Education bills until after Martin Luther King Jr. Day, allowing additional time for negotiations on these larger and more contentious bills.

While appropriations negotiations will consume much of lawmakers’ attention over the next four weeks, Republicans are also signaling interest in a second reconciliation package later this year. In a keynote address at the Reagan National Defense Forum last month, Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought suggested the administration could use reconciliation to advance additional Republican priorities, potentially including defense spending. GOP lawmakers have echoed interest in using the process to address affordability, healthcare, and national security priorities. Still, election-year dynamics and the difficulties Republicans faced passing last year’s reconciliation package, the One Big Beautiful Bill, could complicate any renewed effort.

Meanwhile, attention is already turning to the next defense policy cycle. President Trump signed the FY26 National Defense Authorization Act into law on December 19, enacting sweeping reforms to the defense acquisition system. Even as implementation gets underway, the House and Senate Armed Services Committees are beginning preparations for the FY27 NDAA, with both panels expected to mark up their bills early this summer.

House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-AL) has identified strengthening the defense industrial base as the top priority for the next NDAA. Rogers has argued for policy changes aimed at expanding the pool of companies producing military equipment, with a particular focus on bringing small and mid-sized firms into the defense market. The war in Ukraine has sharpened congressional concern about munitions shortages and exposed the limitations of the current supplier base. Rogers has suggested the FY27 NDAA could include expanded multiyear procurement authorities and potential tax incentives to lower barriers to entry for defense contractors, while cautioning that increased funding alone will not resolve capacity constraints.

The FY27 NDAA is also expected to build on the acquisition reforms enacted last year. Both the House and Senate Armed Services Committees plan to conduct oversight of the FY26 changes and may pursue targeted legislative refinements. Rogers has indicated that HASC will hold a hearing in February to assess how the Pentagon is implementing the new acquisition framework, underscoring that reform efforts are intended to be iterative rather than one-off changes.

150 aircraft, cyber effects and ‘overwhelming force:’ How the Venezuela operation unfolded (Breaking Defense 1/3)

“The surprise, complex operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was the result of long-term planning between the US military and its intelligence agencies, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine said today. ‘The word integration does not explain the sheer complexity of such a mission, an extraction so precise it involved more than 150 aircraft launching across the western hemisphere in close coordination, all coming together in time and place to layer effects for a single purpose, to get an interdiction force into downtown Caracas while maintaining the element of tactical surprise,’ he said. ‘Failure of one component of this well-oiled machine would have endangered the entire mission.’”

After Maduro Ouster, Trump Takes On the Risks of Governing Venezuela (The Wall Street Journal 1/3)

“With Nicolás Maduro out of power, the Trump administration is racing to assemble an interim governing structure for Venezuela—one that would repair a battered oil industry and stabilize a country ruled for years by a group that plundered its riches and facilitated trafficking across its territory. The U.S. military operation to depose Maduro was quick, precise and decisive, but what comes next is riven with risks and the potential for blunders, current and former U.S. officials said.”

Op-Ed: “Japan Steps Up on Military Spending” by the WSJ Editorial Board (The Wall Street Journal 12/30)

“President Trump wants American allies to do more for their own defense, so he ought to be delighted with new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decision to press for a record defense budget next year. Japan is America’s indispensable ally in the Pacific, and it will be crucial in any attempt to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. Ms. Takaichi had the temerity to say so in November, and Beijing’s mouthpieces attacked her for it. But China made her point over the weekend with a live-fire military exercise near Taiwan that simulated a potential blockade against the island democracy. The exercise involved some 130 fighter jets and at least 14 warships.”

China Signals It Won’t Give an Inch to the U.S. in Latin America (The Wall Street Journal 12/31)

“China intends to keep playing in the U.S. backyard, Latin America. The Trump administration took veiled swipes at China in its national-security strategy with the vow to ‘restore American pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere’ and 'deny non-Hemispheric competitors.’ Less than a week after the release of the U.S. strategy in December, Beijing issued a little-noticed policy paper on Latin America and the Caribbean that geopolitical analysts say foreshadows more U.S.-China jostling for regional influence.”

Op-Ed: “China is using American AI against the U.S. Here’s how to stop it.” by Jack Crovitz (The Washington Post 12/29)

“An agent of the Chinese domestic security state recently asked an artificial intelligence model to plan a sophisticated surveillance system targeting the minority Uyghur population. This system would compile police records, real-time transportation data and other information to help the Chinese government track and control Uyghurs. The agent called it a ‘Warning Model for High-Risk Uyghur Individuals.’”

Op-Ed: “Minnesota is poised for a new push in aerospace and defense” by Rep. Brad Finstad (R-MN) and Rep. Betty McCollum (D-MN) (The Minnesota Star Tribune 1/4)

“As Americans, we face a threat we cannot afford to ignore. China and Russia are rapidly advancing in the development of next-generation aerospace technologies, including hypersonic flight with military applications. These hypersonics can travel at more than five times the speed of sound, with maneuverability that allows them to evade current defensive systems. Russia has already deployed hypersonic weapons against Ukraine. China has publicly demonstrated its significant capabilities. The U.S. has fallen far behind. If we don’t accelerate our innovation and testing, we will not be able to effectively defend our nation. Minnesota will soon play a critical role in meeting this challenge.”

Op-Ed: “America Can’t Reshore Everything” by Michael O’Hanlon and Marta Wosinska (The Wall Street Journal 12/30)

“During Covid-19 and the rare-earths crisis, America learned that ‘just‑in‑time’ globalization can leave the country dangerously exposed when foreign governments restrict critical exports. But building more-reliable supply chains is too expensive and time-consuming for the U.S. to address all vulnerabilities simultaneously. Which supply chains deserve immediate attention can be decided by a simple three-part test. First, a supply chain warrants special focus when its disruption would quickly threaten lives, core defense missions or essential economic functions. Second, when substitutes or workarounds can’t be instituted in time to mitigate the disruption. Third, when surge capacity can’t be built on a reasonable timeline. This approach acknowledges that developing resilience is costly and helps ensure that scarce capital goes to the most vital choke points.”

In a sign of more to come, the Corps certified forward-deployed Marines on FPV drones for the first time (DefenseScoop 12/31)

“It was nearing midnight just two days before Thanksgiving when a small Marine Corps drone buzzed to life, obscuring the sound of insects chirping away at the Puerto Rican military facility known as Camp Santiago. Then there was an explosion, briefly illuminating the drone’s target — a container — and the flora surrounding it in an otherwise dark night, according to a Marine Corps video of the exercise. A voice then cracked over the radio: the target was destroyed.”

AFSOC looks to add Starlink terminals to Ghostrider gunships (DefenseScoop 12/31)

“Air Force Special Operations Command is interested in equipping its AC-130J Ghostrider aircraft with SpaceX’s made-for-government Starlink/Starshield terminals. According to a request for information posted to Sam.gov on Tuesday, AFSOC is conducting market research for ‘ruggedized Starlink/Starshield integration solutions onto AC-130J Ghostrider’ — a gunship that primarily provides close air support and armed reconnaissance for ground-based forces. The terminals would improve beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) satellite communications to the aircraft to support the command’s missions, the RFI noted.”

Ukraine peace plan ‘scares the bejesus out of us,’ officials say (Defense News 12/29)

“A maximum of 800,000. That’s how many soldiers Ukraine’s military would be authorized to have under the current 20-point peace framework — a 20% cut from the roughly one million currently under arms, but a significant increase over the 600,000 originally proposed. That higher number was a concession Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy won after weeks of pushing back. But it’s still a ceiling on a force built over almost four years of war with Western weapons, Western training and Western intelligence.”

Iran leader says country in ‘full-fledged’ war with US, Israel, Europe (Defense News 12/29)

“Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country is engaged in a “full-fledged war with America, Israel, and Europe,” raising new tensions months after the Trump administration carried out airstrikes on three of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities. In an interview published on the website of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Pezeshkian accused Washington and its allies of working to destabilize Tehran.”